Reasonably settled and dry.........In Aberdeen.

There's more to the UK than Oxfordshire mate. Been a good month here and looks perfectly decent in the outlook as well, low 20s with some sunshine and very little (if any) rain.

Your mask has really slipped today. 

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Quite a few of the longer range models are chap. Perhaps you should try looking?

JMA not great, UKMO average at best, BCC average at best.

But best you look for yourself instead.

Well if the weather in NI (which I don't live too far from) has been anything like here this June so far, then it has been very grim. Not so much in terms of rainfall, but more down to permanent low cloud cover bringing high humidity and damp drizzly conditions since the start of the month. I'd not be surprised if came in amongst the dullest June's on record up there as well as down here. 

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There's more to the UK than Oxfordshire mate. Been a good month here and looks perfectly decent in the outlook as well, low 20s with some sunshine and very little (if any) rain.

Your mask has really slipped today. 

The mask is my posts are IMBY yes, I accept that. I am not deliberately going out of my way to look for the worst of the worst.

I admit my posts are very much glass half empty, but I would shout from the rooftops of we suddenly see a turnaround into something resembling 2018.

Will we get that turnaround? I doubt it. Is it possible? Of course it's possible, but I am a believer that a general pattern for a season does set in, similar to many zonal winters that commence in December and are just relentless.

I feel that is more prevalent in winter because strong zonality is very stubborn to shift.

The issue in summer is the jet stream is much weaker, and so when these summer trough patterns set in, they too can be very difficult to shift, and can become almost stationary and just fill in situ eventually.

That is what I mean by a pattern setting in. There's not much in the models shorter or longer range that suggest a significant switch is coming and so our hope is the troughing fills and runs out of steam, but with relatively warm uppers, they keep reinvigorating themselves and staying in situ, this time in the south, while strong heights to the north keep the trough stuck like a limpet to the more southern areas, thus giving northern most parts a very decent spell of summer weather.

This can change, but it probably needs an out of season deep low pressure to zip through to stir the atmosphere and reset the pattern.

Speaking of a reset.....let's all move on, and I will give a commitment to being more subjective and more analytical.

I don't see any reason why I can't do that, if you are all prepared to accept differing opinions.

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You've written off the summer. Which models are showing a write off summer?

To clarify, I'm not talking about a wet weekend or a wet spell next week. I'm referring to you stating this unsettled pattern is the default for this summer. Where is the evidence backing up such a sweeping statement?

You're fast becoming a parody that no-one will take seriously. 

To answer that question Steve, there isn't any.

From what I can see of the model output generally at the moment, while no repeat of 2018 looks to be on offer, I see no suggestions of a repeat of either 2012 or 2007 either. There have been quite a few runs from different models which show HP to be fairly influential on the UK's weather as we head into early July. There have been some more unsettled runs too, but nothing that should cause us any undue concern, in my opinion.

Chill pill, folks!

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People seem to get very wound up by Moomin. Its like reading Twitter. I really don't understand why.

The N/S divide of this late June is unusual and fascinating. The outlook is, regardless of objections, pretty poor for the Southern half of the country. It is pretty good if not excellent for the Northern half, more specifically the North West.

To take this morning's GFS, average Tmax based on grid points for the next 7 days: 17.8C (London) vs 20.8C (Manchester), and 19.6C (Glasgow). That's including today's miserable cold one in the North West. Excluding today Manchester's figure is a whopping 22.2C.

Rainfall wise we have 47mm in London by next Thursday, 7mm in Manchester and 2mm in Glasgow. And there is a maximum grid point for the country of 59mm sitting roughly over South Oxfordshire e.g. Witney. 

This is worthy of note because it's quite a persistent pattern, and every run that goes by seems to prolong the influence of the trough to the South and high pressure to the North. More of an April/May pattern than a late June one. Hence I think very interesting to see the different reactions to the same model output from people based in the North and South. It's as big a divide as the popularity of Boris Johnson in Chesham & Amersham vs Hartlepool - both populations looking at the same data but coming to completely different conclusions.

      

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UK Met Global now looking mixed in the south for much of next week.

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Quite a few of the longer range models are chap. Perhaps you should try looking?

JMA not great, UKMO average at best, BCC average at best.

But best you look for yourself instead.

I am surprised you trust the long range models that much - even so they're not exactly there to forecast any pattern with confidence anyway, more an indication of trends at that particular time. They will change regularly, as they often do.

At a glance, long range models look average which is to say the usual variations will be apparent as we head through the summer. It is why any long-range text summary will hedge its bets with most summer weather types occurring at one stage or another.

To concur with just about every other poster in this thread, there is no evidence to write off the summer. Certainly not based on one stubborn trough that may dampen the south for the next week.

I am glad you're going to bring in some subjectivity though - it is not like the rest of us are predicting a BBQ summer 

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GEFS 00z is looking less promising for the south than some of the recent updates. 

 

It's a different picture as you head north.

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People seem to get very wound up by Moomin. Its like reading Twitter. I really don't understand why.

.      

Come off it, it’s obvious why! 

Apart from that, your post is excellent. 

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Brian's GEFS post above covers the outlook neatly though IMO any changes for the south since yesterday are only marginal. 

GFS keeps HP around for the coming week but that patch of cold & wet LP embedded in it sticks around S England/N France until Fri 2nd and even then HP is to the W so winds still in the NE for much of UK. fter that the ridge topples slowly and a W-ly pattern sets in by Thu 8th  (last frame Sun 11th shows an autumnal LP near SW Iceland, not at that stage affecting UK exc far NW)

ECM also shows that patch in place but replaces it after Fri 2nd by a large LP mid Atlantic wit S/SW winds, cool in the NW but could be quite warm in the SE Mon 5th

 

EDIT - I misread Brian's post so  have tweaked this one

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GEM, GFS and ECM all have high pressure building in nicely in about 7 days. 

Until then decent for the north of England unsettled further south. Difficult forecast though as some days look ok some days quite poor. Bit of a nowcast situation. 

Some people get annoyed with Moomin because he writes off Summer all the time at the slightest hint of unsettled conditions .  But I dont think hes being entirely serious most of the time. 

 

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People seem to get very wound up by Moomin. Its like reading Twitter. I really don't understand why.

The N/S divide of this late June is unusual and fascinating. The outlook is, regardless of objections, pretty poor for the Southern half of the country. It is pretty good if not excellent for the Northern half, more specifically the North West.

To take this morning's GFS, average Tmax based on grid points for the next 7 days: 17.8C (London) vs 20.8C (Manchester), and 19.6C (Glasgow). That's including today's miserable cold one in the North West. Excluding today Manchester's figure is a whopping 22.2C.

Rainfall wise we have 47mm in London by next Thursday, 7mm in Manchester and 2mm in Glasgow. And there is a maximum grid point for the country of 59mm sitting roughly over South Oxfordshire e.g. Witney. 

This is worthy of note because it's quite a persistent pattern, and every run that goes by seems to prolong the influence of the trough to the South and high pressure to the North. More of an April/May pattern than a late June one. Hence I think very interesting to see the different reactions to the same model output from people based in the North and South. It's as big a divide as the popularity of Boris Johnson in Chesham & Amersham vs Hartlepool - both populations looking at the same data but coming to completely different conclusions.

      

I have to say I’m loving every second of this. Let me explain why. 

I often get sick and tired of the baseless, annoying stereotypical commentary about Manchester’s weather, more specifically its rainfall. This more especially from people who move here from other parts of the country.

I hear it every single day - it’s become a natural part of small talk. 

“it always rains in Manchester”. Well no actually, it doesn’t.

”it’s never sunny here”. My sunburn will tell you different.

”it never gets hot ever” . Well actually it does sometimes. In summer quite often actually. 

When viewing an apartment balcony last year: “not that you’ll get much chance of sitting out here knowing Manchester’s weather”. Well actually I’ve been sitting in the park all lockdown as it’s been sunny the entire time.

Yes it is statistically wetter here in terms of rain days than most major towns and cities in the UK (NOT Glasgow) which is much wetter, but Cardiff for example gets more rain in terms of the amount of water. But the city’s wet reputation is overstated all the time and it gets right on my nerves. I always bite back as well which must make me seem a bit odd and anal about it. 

Rant over! 😂😂😂

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I know what you mean Joe, my wife and I spent a very nice few days in the city earlier this month and no-one would belive the tan on my face came from Manchester!

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I know what you mean Joe, my wife and I spent a very nice few days in the city earlier this month and no-one would belive the tan on my face came from Manchester!

😂😂 To be fair it’s drizzling today. 

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😂😂 To be fair it’s drizzling today. 

If it’s any consolation Joe, we’ve regularly had similar conversations around the world about the rainy weather.  Not Manchester, but Britain in general and there seems to be a global consensus that it always rains here.  Not surprising, as I’ve often heard holiday makers abroad saying as much and I’m sure you will have too.  We’re a nation obsessed with ‘the great British weather’, so it’s our own fault.  

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People seem to get very wound up by Moomin. Its like reading Twitter. I really don't understand why.

The N/S divide of this late June is unusual and fascinating. The outlook is, regardless of objections, pretty poor for the Southern half of the country. It is pretty good if not excellent for the Northern half, more specifically the North West.

      

It's not even been that bad in the south.. he is just a broken record always wanting brownie points for predicting never ending rain. The last 9 day's have for sure seen some wet weather in what was an otherwise very dry month up until that point, but even in those last 9 day's there have been some nice sunny warm dry days. Unsettled weather in June (especially back end) is completely normal and to be expected most years - so predictable they built a roof a Wimbledon because of it!!

This weekend actually looks pretty good for 95% of the country maybe some rain for the south coast Sunday. 

 

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If it’s any consolation Joe, we’ve regularly had similar conversations around the world about the rainy weather.  Not Manchester, but Britain in general and there seems to be a global consensus that it always rains here.  Not surprising, as I’ve often heard holiday makers abroad saying as much and I’m sure you will have too.  We’re a nation obsessed with ‘the great British weather’, so it’s our own fault.  

I suspect a lot of that is down to perception of rain days/rain duration rather than actual amount. I think that parts of eastern England are as dry as anywhere you will find in Europe away from the Mediterranean but it will seem wetter as our rain is  fairly evenly distributed throughout the year and also relatively light in nature. What day would seem wetter, 5mm from constant light rain/drizzle or 5mm from a short thunderstorm in an otherwise sunny day?

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 I suspect a lot of that is down to perception of rain days/rain duration rather than actual amount. I think that parts of eastern England are as dry as anywhere you will find in Europe away from the Mediterranean but it will seem wetter as our rain is  fairly evenly distributed throughout the year and also relatively light in nature. What day would seem wetter, 5mm from constant light rain/drizzle or 5mm from a short thunderstorm in an otherwise sunny day?

Good point Col. The last week or so has been more notable for the lack of sunshine (Wednesday was the only sunny day here) in late June than the amount of rain. If we'd had 60mm of rain spread over a few torrential thunderstorms and then the sun had reappeared for a few hours on each day, most people on the forum would be loving it. 

Back to the models, there is an increasing risk that the whole of my week in south Devon, starting this Saturday, will be affected by rain. Some models are showing it drying out from Wednesday others are showing it lasting until Friday. Longer term there are increasing signs of a return to a more typical pattern of high pressure to the south west of the UK.  North and west is best next week. If you've decided to have a holiday in the Scottish highlands and islands, next week is looking glorious. 

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I suspect a lot of that is down to perception of rain days/rain duration rather than actual amount. I think that parts of eastern England are as dry as anywhere you will find in Europe away from the Mediterranean but it will seem wetter as our rain is  fairly evenly distributed throughout the year and also relatively light in nature. What day would seem wetter, 5mm from constant light rain/drizzle or 5mm from a short thunderstorm in an otherwise sunny day?

I really noticed this when we moved from Manchester to Maidstone back in the day. Both places have about the same amount of rainfall, but Manchester has the reputation because the rain took longer to fall, and the cloud hung around for longer.

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