About to head to the Outer Hebrides for two weeks. I'm not crying....

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs-charts-selected.aspx?loc=Isle%20of%20Lewis%20HS2,%20UK&lat_5=58&lon_5=-7 

World class beaches, fishing, climbing, archaeology, seafood. And looks like hardly any rain. (Surprising to many how often this happens).

 

Maybe to save stressing you need to emigrate Moomin the weather will do what it likes and sometimes at short notice so writing off summer after 23 days is ridiculous .

It is indeed and it is frustrating to see those sorts of posts in this thread as they are based on nothing scientific at all  Yes it is unsettled especially further south over the coming days - that has been known for some time - but the pattern into July still looks very positive...

I would agree. The standing Rossby wave, whose trough we have been in is now weakening, and beginning to move east slowly, albeit having created that pesky cut off upper low. However much it spins its wheels it will eventually decline, but as it stagnates with increasing surface temp and still cool aloft..we could see some interesting storms in the next 3 to 5 days. Just my take, and probably will be proved wrong!! But that is the fun of the British weather!!

An excellent take  Reasons to be optimistic once this pesky trough clears off 

 

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Not much sign of a 30c on that GFS 12z run, would be quite a cool start to July

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It is indeed and it is frustrating to see those sorts of posts in this thread as they are based on nothing scientific at all  Yes it is unsettled especially further south over the coming days - that has been known for some time - but the pattern into July still looks very positive...

 

An excellent take  Reasons to be optimistic once this pesky trough clears off 

 

Or be replaced by another one going by the 12z GFS chart.  Just as well UKMO only go up to 144 hrs. 

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Or be replaced by another one going by the 12z GFS chart.  Just as well UKMO only go up to 144 hrs. 

It goes to 168. See

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Edit: 00z 168 looks quite consistent.

 

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With regard the Met Office feed I'm now getting a good idea of the monthly data burn. It looks like I have quite a lot of spare capacity to add in more UKV and Global Model charts. 

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It’s the damned GFS that’s the main culprit at the moment. Keeps flattering to deceive in the ENS then turning out horror op runs. That said this evening’s op then goes hot towards the end.

EDIT: actually no it doesn’t, I was looking at last nights 18z. This evening’s op stays rubbish to the end. 

Medium term, it seems the secret to a decent spell is going to be that Norwegian high hanging around and keeping away the Euro trough long enough to allow the Azores reinforcements to pile in and join up.

 

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'Write-off summer', eh?

It's only 24th June Kieren, not 24th August.

Summer default pattern is set David, and its unsettled. Simple as that.

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Summer default pattern is set David, and its unsettled. Simple as that.

this is such an incorrect post - it’s a little embarrassing 

Summer default pattern is set David, and its unsettled. Simple as that.

No, not really. The summer has been significantly drier than average so far for a large swathe of the U.K. and looks like continuing in that vein for some time. It does seem more unsettled at times in some parts but overall the consensus in the output or what consensus there is (cross model and ensembles) is encouraging for many parts. So, no it’s not as “simple as that”.

If you select certain output and certain locations then your conclusion is valid, without those caveats it is simply hyperbole.

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Totally agree with you Doc. 👍👍👍 Plenty of settled weather across large swathes of the country so far this summer with plenty more to come. 

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Summer default pattern is set David, and its unsettled. Simple as that.

Utter hysteria.

It’s an unsettled spell for the south. What happens three days into astronomical summer does not a season make. Give over.

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Summer default pattern is set David, and its unsettled. Simple as that.

Complete nonsense of the highest order. You really do not help yourself sometimes! Your posts are increasingly hysterical with nothing remotely scientific to back them up. So, so disappointing 👎

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Certainly looks like a frustrating week especially for the South but how much rain actually falls is still anyones guess. After that to my untrained eye at least its looking like high pressure will take control. But maybe Moomin will be right with his apocalyptic predictions. 

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Complete nonsense of the highest order. You really do not help yourself sometimes! Your posts are increasingly hysterical with nothing remotely scientific to back them up. So, so disappointing 👎

I am viewing the models and commenting on what I am seeing. Its not rocket science to look at models and summarise what I'm seeing. Not my fault if you are blind to what is staring you in the face.

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I am viewing the models and commenting on what I am seeing. Its not rocket science to look at models and summarise what I'm seeing. Not my fault if you are blind to what is staring you in the face.

Okay, if you want to take that approach with no caveats to your blanket statements, how would you interpret this chart?

 

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I am viewing the models and commenting on what I am seeing. Its not rocket science to look at models and summarise what I'm seeing. Not my fault if you are blind to what is staring you in the face.

You've written off the summer. Which models are showing a write off summer?

To clarify, I'm not talking about a wet weekend or a wet spell next week. I'm referring to you stating this unsettled pattern is the default for this summer. Where is the evidence backing up such a sweeping statement?

You're fast becoming a parody that no-one will take seriously. 

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Okay, if you want to take that approach with no caveats to your blanket statements, how would you interpret this chart?

 

Reasonably settled and dry.........In Aberdeen.

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You've written off the summer. Which models are showing a write off summer?

To clarify, I'm not talking about a wet weekend or a wet spell next week. I'm referring to you stating this unsettled pattern is the default for this summer. Where is the evidence backing up such a sweeping statement?

You're fast becoming a parody that no-one will take seriously. 

Quite a few of the longer range models are chap. Perhaps you should try looking?

JMA not great, UKMO average at best, BCC average at best.

But best you look for yourself instead.

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Looks good to me. Uppers at least are average to warm in the south. Conditions are slack close to a cut-off low in the short/medium term which does indeed open the door for thundery rainfall but it won't be that cool,especially in any sunshine and it will be quite humid so nights will be sticky at times.

Kieran will always look for the wettest options but I'm more frustrated by the cool outlook nonsense because it isn't