Serious flooding rain is back on the GFS 6Z, probably in the form of severe thunderstorms, followed by a significant cool off.

I note with some fascination that you neglected to mention that the very same run implies 30c in points SE in about a week. Probably neither a heatwave nor a flood will transpire, but it's interesting how you only mention extreme unsettled outcomes regardless of what the models as a whole are saying. 

Meanwhile, excellent weather to be had in the reliable timeframe, and on a Bank Holiday weekend too, proving that the "risky business" of writing off whole seasons before they even start is a fool's errand. 

 

 

 

I note with some fascination that you neglected to mention that the very same run implies 30c in points SE in about a week. Probably neither a heatwave nor a flood will transpire, but it's interesting how you only mention extreme unsettled outcomes regardless of what the models as a whole are saying. 

Meanwhile, excellent weather to be had in the reliable timeframe, and on a Bank Holiday weekend too, proving that the "risky business" of writing off whole seasons before they even start is a fool's errand. 

👏👏👍

 

Your curious obsession with poor summer weather shows no sign of abating even if the cool and unsettled pattern we've been locked into for weeks and weeks now does. 

Didn't say it was likely, but just commenting on what its showing.

I thought that was what the model thread was about, commenting on thr models.

The weekend and beyond is looking great on the latest runs. Hopefully that trend will continue well into next week and further.

I think the GFS is looking like bringing a quick thundery breakdown after a few fine days, then who knows after that.

However, UKMO cancels its breakdown from yesterday and looks nice all the way out to the end.

GEM has consistently been unsettled quickly, and it is again this afternoon. A quick breakdown then cool and unsettled. GEM has consistently stuck to its guns for a few days, so I think its more likely to be correct given the consistency.

 

I think the GFS is looking like bringing a quick thundery breakdown after a few fine days, then who knows after that.

However, UKMO cancels its breakdown from yesterday and looks nice all the way out to the end.

GEM has consistently been unsettled quickly, and it is again this afternoon. A quick breakdown then cool and unsettled. GEM has consistently stuck to its guns for a few days, so I think its more likely to be correct given the consistency.

You said the same about the UKMO model and consistency yesterday. I can only see the GEM 12z out to 102 hours so far?

Come on Moomin enjoy the decent charts.

Excellent GFS and UKMO 12s. Looking warm mid 20s and perhaps thundery, for me perfect summer weather

 

You said the same about the UKMO model and consistency yesterday. I can only see the GEM 12z out to 102 hours so far?

On Meteociel it was fully out and unsettled. It has been consistently showing unsettled. I plump for the most consistent charts.

The GFS has consistently been showing warm and settled weather for a period of days, so you’d agree that is good? I still only see the GEM chart to 108hr for the 12z run?

GEM is at 138 on TWO.

 

The GFS has consistently been showing warm and settled weather for a period of days, so you’d agree that is good? I still only see the GEM chart to 108hr for the 12z run?

Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.

0z wasn’t bad either certain to feel very pleasant with what we’ve had

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

GEM is at 138 on TWO.

No it hasn't, not really. It has been solid for the last 2 days I think, but not a number of days. The ECM was the most consistent in getting the upcoming spell right though.

Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.

I think the different resolution GEM datasets may be published at different times, unlike GFS where they appear more or less together. In the past I've seen comments about GEM where it is clear the person doesn't know which update he is looking at. Anyway, it's looking very warm or even "h**" on Tuesday.

No it hasn't, not really. It has been solid for the last 2 days I think, but not a number of days. The ECM was the most consistent in getting the upcoming spell right though.

Anyway, GEM hasnt refreshed so its still rolling out.

So, the 12z wasn’t out when you commented that it was consistent this afternoon?The GFS has been pretty consistent nd has been showing the nicer weekend weather for some time. There is a consensus for a significant improvement in the weather and the vast majority of output supports that.

Very pleasant becoming potentially hot for a time s/e

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

We don’t need big uppers but increasingly with time

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=0&sort=0

little frontal wet stuff about

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0

GEM has finally updated and it's a good run high pressure back in charge by the end

The most consistent model out there globally is the MFS. It has been absolutely unwavering on a cool and unsettled picture since November 2015.

🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.

Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?