A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Its reasonably good yes. A settled spell is more likely than not, I must admit.

 

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Good virus killing conditions on all the models thus evening.

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'Flaming June' is going to be a magnet for weather model watchers in the weeks ahead with warm and settled conditions so desired after the recent cold and wet spell. At least the current model runs are showing promise.....

A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Just for balance, there's one or two HUGE rainfall spikes on the GEFS.

OK, I'll get my coat! 🤣😊🤣😅

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ECM just about clinging on to a very decent next week, although not exactly a heatwave, should make a nice change from what we have had.

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🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.

Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?

👍fair play to you! 

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A decent 12z ECM op run to add to the collection.

Its ensemble is very warm and mostly dry all the way to the 10th of June. It supports ~30C in the SE at the end of next week.

 

 

🤣🤣🤣 Fair comment. I have been well and truly owned by that comment.

Wonder if the man who has my cartoon Ark is still around.?

Say no more . . . 

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Say no more . . . 

Haha. Thank you. May not need it for a few days.

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Say no more . . . 

   Moomin will at least admit when he’s wrong. 

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   Moomin will at least admit when he’s wrong. 

I will, but that time isn't here yet. GEM looks pretty ropey today, UKMO is less good than yesterday and GFS has also backtracked on a long dry spell.

Nothing nailed on yet.

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Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.

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Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.

And on this run, it goes bang at the end. What's not to like about that? 

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The 16-dayer while not dire has stepped back from real warmth over UK (the warmth has moved across to the Baltic) and both weeks look a little damper than they did yesterday, though the really heavy  rain is over SE Europe and in week 2 , the Balkans.

GFS - the N-S ridge of HP moves in to the UK this week and topples over Norway Mon 31st. Then Lp moves up from Biscay to link with LP on the Atlantic to sit off NW Scotland Sat 5th with a generally W-ly flow to the weather. Azores HP the shows up Tue 8th, standing off to the SW at first but by Fri 11th forming a strong ridge across UK

GEFS -agreement in temp runs to Tue 1st  by which time increased to a little above norm, continuing with most runs about seasonal average and the mean buoyed up by a number of warm outliers. Op and control are pessimists today. Dry to the 1st, a showery pattern thereafter but no great amounts of rain in S (bar the odd rogue spike), rather more in N. 

ECM - as GFS to Tue 1st, but the Biscay LP never really links with Atlantic so maintains a warm S-ly as it moves up to Ireland Thu 3rd; and is still hanging around over SW Britain Sun 6th with HP to the NE

 

EDIT - compared to yesterday's forecasts, ECM and GFS have swapped with each other. 

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Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.

Very much welcome to see warm to hot weather and that normal for summer season.

Scorchio ECM this morning easily 30c by 216h . 15c 850s in the south.

Not surprisingly it's at the top end of the ENS but still shows the potential.

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I will, but that time isn't here yet. GEM looks pretty ropey today, UKMO is less good than yesterday and GFS has also backtracked on a long dry spell.

Nothing nailed on yet.

I don't think anybody is predicting a long dry spell. It's just good to get some warmth!

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Stonking ECM Op this morning,

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

Pretty strong support, with a pulse of warm coming from Iberia on the ensemble mean

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecmens/00_192_mslp850.png 

There's a note of caution from GFS, which has something a little more westerly based at T192 on its Op, but the mean at around 8-10 days still brings in solid height rises from the SW:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_216_1.png 

No 2018 yet, but notably warm compared to Spring.

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ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

T2m max temps for my neck of the woods for the ECM.

Warm but not looking like it'll be 'hot' with top of the ens just below 27c for a day but that's one run at the top of the pack, most are cooler (some noticeably so).  Note the operational is towards the top of the pack albeit not without at least some support.

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

Rainfall is shown to be limited/unlikely until Thursday next week where a few members show some rain although they're in the minority.

 

So generally fine and relatively warm looks likely IMBY for the next week or so, with temps maybe nudging mid 20's for a day or two, maybe a bit longer if things fall in to place. Compared to the last 2 months today feels borderline tropical so I imagine it'll feel very pleasant in to next week. 

 

 

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GFS 6Z is very quick to bring back the unsettled.
Second run in a row to look more unsettled, so probably a new trend again.

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