He talks about background signals that I know nothing about, but says that all the signals are for an unsettled month. 

I wonder what the background signals were a month ago for this month and what they were back at the end of March for April?

Did they forsee that April would be so dry and sunny if not overly warm and did they forsee that this month would be cool and unsettled pretty much nationwide?

Trying to accurately forecast the weather for a week or more ahead in this country is pretty well impossible for much of the time- FACT.

 

Looks okay to me?  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png 

OKay-ish I would say. As someone (possibly Retron) said on here a  few years back, "beware of jet streams running through highs!"

GFS 0Z shows a prolonged warm and dry spell this morning, but once again, GEM goes a completely different route with it turning much cooler and unsettled.

Hi Kieren

I have never really followed GEM much to be honest. How reliable, or otherwise, is it generally compared to the likes of GFS, UKMO and ECM out of interest?

 

Hi Kieren

I have never really followed GEM much to be honest. How reliable, or otherwise, is it generally compared to the likes of GFS, UKMO and ECM out of interest?

Actually, I rate GEM. very highly. I've followed it closely this year and found it to be as useful as GFS and ECM. 

 

Hi Kieren

I have never really followed GEM much to be honest. How reliable, or otherwise, is it generally compared to the likes of GFS, UKMO and ECM out of interest?

It is a good model to be fair to Kieren! But I note he fails to mention ECM, which is also good!

Trends seem to indicate a decent spell coming up for southern parts at least. As it is often said, less so the further north and west you go.

Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

There is little basis for that especially for the southern ~half of the country. 

Nice ECM this morning but the GFS really is a peach!

Best GEFS this year as well.

16 day GEFS 2m max temps clustering for #London. EVERY day from 31/05 to 10/06 has >50% of runs in the 21C to 30C group. Will we soon see a red appearing for the first time ever? (These charts weren't available last summer!) https://t.co/Ku8ZwBJUoy pic.twitter.com/NzHcQtFTDG

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) May 26, 2021

And speaking of jet streams, once it's cleared from the UK this week, it stays away with occasional minor streaks N and S of the UK through to end of run Fri 11th. Some promising warm weather appearing this morning on the 16-dayer  for week 2, also mainly dry (some rain week 2 in S)

GFS - HP ridging from S over the weekend, toppling into Norway by Thu 3rd with LP from Biscay moving N to augment the S-ly flow for a few days but not having much other effect. HP re-forms Tue 8th with ridge from Azores to Norway, strongly enough to hold off an Atlantic LP to Fri 11th

GEFS - temps in all runs climbing to 2-3C above norm by Tue 1st and mean staying there throughout (even if control run tries to spoil the party) - generally significantly warmer than yesterday's forecast. Dry though one or two runs produce spectacular spikes in the S, and there is  more but random pptn in the N

ECM - doesn't show the Biscay LP, but keeps pressure low in the N Atlantic, with centres close enough to affect N Scotland Thu 3rd, and more of a mobile W-ly look to the weather from Tue 1st

Nice ECM this morning but the GFS really is a peach!

Best GEFS this year as well.

 

 

 

Excellent and those will be 23-25C days for a long time are much welcome nad heatwave can come later but now we need at least 2 weeks of warm to settled weather to dry it all out and heating off for good in June 100%.  Rain spikes also dropped as well. Today the last day for horrible low teen temps and hopefully not to see this until October with tomorrow morning last time to turn the heating on to kill of the coldness as warmer nights will arrive too.

For what it is worth, here is the mean height anomaly for day 15 on the EC this morning:

Could go either way, but with with the strongest ridging over eastern Canada and the NE of Europe, could it be a cause of being 'stuck in the middle with you'?  Either way, all academic at this stage. 

For what it is worth, here is the mean height anomaly for day 15 on the EC this morning:

 

Could go either way, but with with the strongest ridging over eastern Canada and the NE of Europe, could it be a cause of being 'stuck in the middle with you'?  Either way, all academic at this stage. 

 

Looks decent enough and the low pressure over Greenland is most welcome. 

Sounds like great forecasts from all the models. My goodness we all welcome that.

Serious flooding rain is back on the GFS 6Z, probably in the form of severe thunderstorms, followed by a significant cool off.

It's also a very warm run for much of next week! Raw data shows 27C so it wouldn't take much for us to be pushing 30C if it verified.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=225&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=249&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

Can I just say - I love how passive aggressive this thread has become.

I know it is the same every year to an extent, but it’s become a lovely little ritual to read the posts, quietly chuckle to myself as I watch the subtle and defensive digs come out.

Most entertaining. 😂😂😂 

A nice light hearted diversion from the pandemic anyway. 👍

It is the only predictable thing in a thread about weather models.  Always spot on, just in time every time. 

Serious flooding rain is back on the GFS 6Z, probably in the form of severe thunderstorms, followed by a significant cool off.

Your curious obsession with poor summer weather shows no sign of abating even if the cool and unsettled pattern we've been locked into for weeks and weeks now does.