Yes Brian and good set for the low reds first time London 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

The mean doesn't tell everything of course, but I wouldn't be backing a washout with this.

 

 

It doesn’t seem any steadier at that range to me? I think I will embrace and enjoy the ether more settled conditions before worrying about what may come after.

If it's showing cool and unsettled, it is, in all likelihood, closer to the mark. GEM is cool and unsettled pretty early next week after the briefest of warm blips, UKMO heading the same way, and no doubt at all ECM will follow suit later.

GFS off on one again.

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If it's showing cool and unsettled, it is, in all likelihood, closer to the mark. GEM is cool and unsettled pretty early next week after the briefest of warm blips, UKMO heading the same way, and no doubt at all ECM will follow suit later.

GFS off on one again.

I was talking about the consistency you had implied was present with the UKMO. we don’t know what the ECM will show so that is supposition or guesswork. 

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I was talking about the consistency you had implied was present with the UKMO. we don’t know what the ECM will show so that is supposition or guesswork. 

I think UKMO and to a larger extent ECM have been much more consistent this spring. GFS has been very erratic.

ECM had this drier spell nailed about 7 days ago....I also think it will have the cool down to unsettled nailed on too, but time will tell.

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I think UKMO and to a larger extent ECM have been much more consistent this spring. GFS has been very erratic.

ECM had this drier spell nailed about 7 days ago....I also think it will have the cool down to unsettled nailed on too, but time will tell.

Looks okay to me?  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png 

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Looks okay to me?  https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png 

Tell me that the GEM and the UKMO/ECM operationals look good.

They don't. GEM particularly is pretty awful.

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Tell me that the GEM and the UKMO/ECM operationals look good.

They don't. GEM particularly is pretty awful.

If you choose an operational model in isolation over its ensemble suite, that’s an “interesting” approach. GEM shows 4mm of rain here in the next 10 days which is a particular improvement. It is also warmer throughout than is has been here essentially all year. If that’s awful, I will take it. 

I will comment on the ECM when it comes out but the mean has been encouraging.

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Tell me that the GEM and the UKMO/ECM operationals look good.

They don't. GEM particularly is pretty awful.

Plenty of GEMs ensembles are very good post 144h. So still hope. Fascinating ECM on the way.

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Japs looks also an improvement let’s hope this a trend 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=132&mode=1&nh=0

If you choose an operational model in isolation over its ensemble suite, that’s an “interesting” approach. GEM shows 4mm of rain here in the next 10 days which is a particular improvement. It is also warmer throughout than is has been here essentially all year. If that’s awful, I will take it. 

I will comment on the ECM when it comes out but the mean has been encouraging.

If you choose an operational model in isolation over its ensemble suite, that’s an “interesting” approach. GEM shows 4mm of rain here in the next 10 days which is a particular improvement. It is also warmer throughout than is has been here essentially all year. If that’s awful, I will take it. 

I will comment on the ECM when it comes out but the mean has been encouraging.

Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

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Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

People can write off whatever they want, I will stick to what the models re actually showing. This is the GFS 12z mean so far:

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Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

He's a Pro who's not afraid to have a punt at a long range forecast. So he gets my respect for that. As many others sit on the fence.  But predicting the weather beyond 2 or 3 weeks is still pretty much impossible in this country so June could still go either way.

 

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He's a Pro who's not afraid to have a punt at a long range forecast. So he gets my respect for that. As many others sit on the fence.  But predicting the weather beyond 2 or 3 weeks is still pretty much impossible in this country so June could still go either way.

 

He talks about background signals that I know nothing about, but says that all the signals are for an unsettled month. 

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ECM 12Z Op following the UKMO and GEM, a flattening ridge and a swift return to low pressure and unsettled.

GFS very much out on its own at the moment. I know where my money is, and it ain't on GFS.

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ECM 12Z Op following the UKMO and GEM, a flattening ridge and a swift return to low pressure and unsettled.

GFS very much out on its own at the moment. I know where my money is, and it ain't on GFS.

 

Have another look at the ECM.  It rebuilds high pressure very quickly. 

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ECM looks quite solid, at least for the southern half of the UK.

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 Movement to Gfs at 144  cut off low very important latter on  nice sun sorry run all good things looking up

 

 

Have another look at the ECM.  It rebuilds high pressure very quickly. 

 Movement to Gfs at 144  cut off low very important latter on  nice sun sorry run all good things looking up

 

Yep nice ECM run especially for the south.  I'd bank it!

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GEFS 12z turning in a VERY solid performance tonight.

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Not really on topic, and I don't know how good he is, but Matt Hugo has tweeted about pretty much writing off June. He says it looks like a very brief warm up but then a largely cool and unsettled June.

 

LOL. Nowhere has Hugo “written off” June! Indeed his two more recent tweets are rather more positive! 

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