Hope for a cool, wet summer? Um.......

yeah, you’ll be mostly on your own with that  Can’t imagine many will want sh1t weather and flooding to add to their out of lockdown experience having been cooped up for 12 months....

 

GFS going on a bender on a cold early April easterly.It is what it is and I've read on many a snowy April.In reality it's been mega boring since Darcy.

Hope for a cool wet summer keep the protesters indoors and reset the weather for a bitter winter next year

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Jetstream maintaining a northerly loop around the British Isles (and increasingly further away, too) until Wed 23rd when a W-ly flow slowly develops to become quite strong across the UK by Mon 29th; but mot lasting as it twists into a loop to the south which is a marked feature by Sat 3rd.

16-dayer slowly warming up across all of Europe except the very far N but rain moving in from the W in week 2

GFS shows the current HP toppling and declining over the course of the next week with LP moving in to affect N areas directly and something of troughs crossing further S (Sat 27th 980 mb Shetland, Tue 30th 990 mb Rockall) but HP then establishes over the Baltic Fri 2nd forcing the next LP onto a more S-ly track where it stalls over Cornwall 1000mb Sun 4th. A bit like the evolution from yesterday though that last LP was further S.

GEFS temps staying well grouped close to seasonal norm and weather dry to Mon 29th. Then although the mean of runs is on the norm there's much more variability and rain appears intermittently in the E but a couple of days earlier and more persistent in the west.

ECM (to Mon 29th) agrees with GFS though placing the centres of LP somewhat further N (near Iceland) in a week's time.

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 Cheers DEW!  You may be the only regular poster at the moment but there are still regular readers!  

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 Cheers DEW!  You may be the only regular poster at the moment but there are still regular readers!  

 Yes plenty to read, maybe not much to add 

 

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 Yes plenty to read, maybe not much to add 

 

Comments appreciate d- but you are allowed to disagree with my view of the situation - I can't be getting it right all the time!

Noted for today:

16-dayer showing a general warm-up over Europe and spreading into the UK from the SE in week2 (The change is dramatic in central Europe - parts of Austria-Hungary from below freezing this week to +12C or so next week, watch for big snow melt and high river levels). Mostly dry across Europe too, though rain pushing in from the Atlantic in week 2 to affect western parts from Norway down to Portugal, and also across the Pyrenees on to N Italy.

GFS consistent with yesterday's predictions - HP currently over UK toppling and flattening out by Fri 26th, then a spell of W-ly weather with main centres of LP running N of Scotland and troughs affecting the rest of the UK from time to time (notably Sun 28th on this run). The troughs are weakened as HP develops over Switzerland Thu 1st and transfers N-wards to Baltic 1035mb Sun 4th. That has the effect of diverting LP centres to a SE-ly course across Southern UK & France from Sat 3rd onwards

GEFS - not much change here, either, temps with good agreement near seasonal norm to Mon 29th, mean continuing near norm but with sharp increase in variability from then on (op very mild, almost warm 1st - 3rd). Rain intermittent in some runs in the SE after the 29th, rather more general and persistent in W esp NW and beginning earlier there,  around Sat 27th 

ECM looks like GFS, just a suggestion that the HP Thu 1st noted for GFS might develop a day or two earlier and closer to UK

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Boring, isn’t it?

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Boring, isn’t it?

I've been loving the mild, sunny weather Tim. Had lunch in the garden for the last 5 days and long hill walks. Splendid!

Looks like the Atlantic regime returns here by Thursday though

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Jetstream still looping N of the UK but the loop passes on by Wed 24th and a W-ly flow sets up over the UK, weak at first but quite strong by Tue 30th and continuing to Thu 6th (though signs of flipping to N or NW-ly at the end). The W-ly pattern more emphasised than when I last looked - compare the 16-dayer & GFS below..

16-dayer somewhat different from yesterday wrt week 2 - colder air trying to come back from the NE (only as far as Finland for now) and rain across the UK and towards N Germany whereas previously it was further S

GFS - current HP subsiding to the S and W-ly pattern dominating after Wed 24th. HP to the S still strong enough to keep the more disturbed weather to the N of the UK though occasional troughs make it further S. The HP then extends N to cover the UK (just about) Sun 4th before retrogressing and allowing a N-ly blast Tue 6th (controlled by LP Sweden 975mb). Yesterday's forecast of LP running SE into France can be safely forgotten!

GEFS - mean not far from norm (up a bit around Tue 23rd, down a bit around Fri 26th) throughout to Tue 6th though poor agreement between runs after Tue 30th. Rain starting around Wed 24th more generally in today's output (the delay in the S has gone), more persistent and heavier in N & W, relatively little for SE

ECM - as GFS but suggests more definite troughs spreading S on Sat 27th and Wed 31st 

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16-dayer indicating that situation is still unpredictable; it's changed from yesterday as the roll-back of cold air NE-wards, while still there, is a lot less pronounced in week 2, and the rainfall previously shown for NW Europe including the UK is standing off in the Atlantic after the immediate future.

GFS op has gone back to the situation of the day before yesterday; it's as if yesterday's flip to Atlantic westerlies was a passing dream! Current HP flattens out this week and allows a couple of deep LPs near Scotland to push troughs across the UK Fri 26th and Mon 29th. HP then establishes across the near continent Wed 30th and extends N-wards to Faeroes Fri 1st finally settling over Iceland Sun 3rd 1035mb. Pressure then drops over mid-Atlantic on latitude of Cornwall but makes no move towards UK. The N-ly threatened yesterday at end of run is now to be found over Poland and Byelorussia.

GEFS temps up and down but not far from norm to Mon 29th; mild to Sat 2nd after which most runs a little below norm (but both op and control staying 5-7C above in the S, generally more randomised in the N). Not much rain in S this week, rather more in Scotland, on the dry side after that but a few runs put in an occasional wet day esp in the N.

ECM delays the second Atlantic trough to Tue 30th and keeps it further away after which it builds HP from the SW rather than over continental Europe

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Boring, isn’t it?

It been very very boring month dominated by cloudy HP and glad to see the back of this later this week.  Seem not normal to see days of clouds In spring time as normally HP days often wall to wall sunshine regardless what the temperatures is.  

Every spring there seems to be one week where mainland Europe sees a significant warming. This changes the influence of a continental feed from a cooling one to a warming one. This spring, we are about to enter that week. 

In much of central Europe, maxima are still struggling in the single digits. By the end of the week, these will be mid teens with some places not far from 20C (including Paris).

The problem for the UK in early spring is that the North Sea is still cold, especially this year. So any continental feed could be greatly affected by this too. It's a fine line between spring warmth and spring chill in this country.  

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Next run of the GFS is with v16.

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Every spring there seems to be one week where mainland Europe sees a significant warming. This changes the influence of a continental feed from a cooling one to a warming one. This spring, we are about to enter that week. 

In much of central Europe, maxima are still struggling in the single digits. By the end of the week, these will be mid teens with some places not far from 20C (including Paris).

The problem for the UK in early spring is that the North Sea is still cold, especially this year. So any continental feed could be greatly affected by this too. It's a fine line between spring warmth and spring chill in this country.  

That's most noticeable for eastern counties. It's quite normal with an easterly feed that the western side gets colder nights but sunny days whilst the east is stuck under low cloud. The dividing line does depend on the airmass and exact wind direction and strength.

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After the run of so many wet months here in Wirral, anything grey and dry is perfectly welcome. Weve had the sun poke its head out a few times the past few days, and ive got all the windows open. Everything starting to dry out..

Spring is in the air

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That's most noticeable for eastern counties. It's quite normal with an easterly feed that the western side gets colder nights but sunny days whilst the east is stuck under low cloud. The dividing line does depend on the airmass and exact wind direction and strength.

A southerly wind here (this time of year) is invariably a cool one due to the Channel still being chilly, whilst our warmest weather at this time of year tends to be a light northerly or even NE direction as long as it's not strong but just enough to prevent a sea breeze bring the cool air inland off the sea. So an easterly feed here as long as its not strong can provide decent warmish spring weather. It's a fine line of course and my least favourite at this time of year especially when it's F4 or more. Sea fog here from May on is often a harbinger of warm weather but a nightmare for people living on the east coast from roughly the Wash to Scotland. In Jirian tradition today's the first time my shed has reached over 20C. The back garden bereft of sun for months was half covered by sunshine earlier and it's increasing daily. 

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NCEP have switched across to GFSv16. Running here on TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

 

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NCEP have switched across to GFSv16. Running here on TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

 

And a cold looking Easter it would be if this version came off.....

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Jetstream - the current loop N of the UK soon dissipating in favour of a W-ly flow later this week, lasting to Tue 30th but weaker than previously forecast. Another loop then breaks up the flow and the tendency  Thu 1st - Tue 6th is then for the jet to split into two, a N branch near Iceland (though with occasional bits briefly breaking off to visit the UK) and a S branch across N Africa.

GFS - current HP declines as in previous forecasts with Atlantic trough carried in on W-lies Fri 26th - but W-ly spell now appears more short-lived as HP from S and SW build to place centre over UK as a whole 1035mb Thu 1st, It retrogresses to a position S of Greenland allowing LP over Spain/France to affect mainly the S of UK by Sun 4th. Finally, GFS hasn't given up on a N-ly blast; today's version is back over the UK Wed 7th and reviving the LP over France for what looks like a rather cold and wet spell after Easter.

GEFS - brief dip in temp Fri 26th soon recovering to be mild to Sat 3rd. Variation between runs is already happening then, most noticeable in Scotland,  and becomes greater everywhere, with op and control both favouring a cold end by Thu 8th. Little prospect of rain in the S (brief blip on Fri 26th), rather more days with rain in NW England and in Scotland but not in great amounts

ECM - same as GFS to Fri 26th but then quite different - a further Atlantic trough on  Mon 29th which leaves LP generally over the UK with a small depression localised 985mb Hebrides Wed 31st and then another 1000 mb Cornwall Fri 1st, both combining to draw in air from far N- looks much colder than GFS.

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Jetstream - the current loop N of the UK soon dissipating in favour of a W-ly flow later this week, lasting to Tue 30th but weaker than previously forecast. Another loop then breaks up the flow and the tendency  Thu 1st - Tue 6th is then for the jet to split into two, a N branch near Iceland (though with occasional bits briefly breaking off to visit the UK) and a S branch across N Africa.

GFS - current HP declines as in previous forecasts with Atlantic trough carried in on W-lies Fri 26th - but W-ly spell now appears more short-lived as HP from S and SW build to place centre over UK as a whole 1035mb Thu 1st, It retrogresses to a position S of Greenland allowing LP over Spain/France to affect mainly the S of UK by Sun 4th. Finally, GFS hasn't given up on a N-ly blast; today's version is back over the UK Wed 7th and reviving the LP over France for what looks like a rather cold and wet spell after Easter.

GEFS - brief dip in temp Fri 26th soon recovering to be mild to Sat 3rd. Variation between runs is already happening then, most noticeable in Scotland,  and becomes greater everywhere, with op and control both favouring a cold end by Thu 8th. Little prospect of rain in the S (brief blip on Fri 26th), rather more days with rain in NW England and in Scotland but not in great amounts

ECM - same as GFS to Fri 26th but then quite different - a further Atlantic trough on  Mon 29th which leaves LP generally over the UK with a small depression localised 985mb Hebrides Wed 31st and then another 1000 mb Cornwall Fri 1st, both combining to draw in air from far N- looks much colder than GFS.

Thanks Dew - seriously hoping the cold signal drops away, April can bring pretty much any type of weather but late season cold is worst of the lot for me.

GFS, GEM and ECM ops all showing chilly or cold weather in 10 days time, with some support from their respective ens sets (GFS/ECM anyway).

Before then and IMBY looking fairly average for the time of year other than a brief chilly interlude this weekend and a warmer couple of days to finish the month. 

Not a particularly welcome pattern I guess if it does verify but could lead to some beefy wintry showers, so interesting from a weather POV. Still of course plenty of time to move back towards something a touch warmer - the last cold blip forecast got significantly watered down after all. 

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