16-dayer shows above average temps and dry weather spreading up through W Europe towards the Baltic, while further east still cold and in places wet from the Caspian down into Turkey. Doesn't match the GFS synoptics at all well
GFS brief burst of Atlantic activity with trough for most of UK linked to LP 970mb Iceland Fri 26th and another more affecting Scotland linked to 955mb Iceland Mon 29th. That passes on into Scandinavia but the worst of its trailing N-lies deflected for a while by new HP 1035mb NI Thu 1st Apr - but the LP over Scandinavia regroups Denmark 1000 mb and brings in a spell of N/NE-lies Sat 3rd - Wed 7th while the HP retires to Greenland. At end of run Fri 9th pressure is slack over the UK but with residual cold air.
GEFS temp dips briefly on Fri 29th then mild in S to Wed 31st after which (unlike previous forecasts) a long period of consistently cool weather agreed on by most runs - 3/5C below norm through to Fri 9th. Intermittent and small amounts of rain. Scotland misses out on the mild spell but does warm up a little towards Fri 9th; also more rain around Mon 29th there and NW England. Also, later on. some wet days for the E coast.
ECM agrees with GFS, if anything the N/NE-ly spell is more directly from the Arctic controlled by trough of LP the whole length of Norway
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl