16-dayer showing a resurgence of cold air over Scandi and to a lesser extent over UK in week 2, and main rain area as yesterday transferring from N of UK to S of it.
GFS - troughs moving through ATM but massive bulge of HP, a plume even, by Tue 30th 1035mb N France, but just as quickly slips away to mid Atlantic ushering in N-lies by Thu 1st, weak at first and converting to E-lies Sun 4th as pressure drops over France and then some colder NE-lies Wed 7th (not a N-ly as yesterday). The direct feed drops off but cold air remains over UK as LPs move in from the Atlantic and sit off Cornwall from Sat 10th. The deep Lp over Scandi is in place from Wed 7th and still a possible menace through to Mon 12th.
GEFS - for the S - ridiculously mild ca Tue 30th followed by a drop >15C overnight and then consistently cold (ca 5C below norm) through to Sun 11th - and good agreement, too. Small amounts of rain from time to time. Similar in Scotland, a little less consistent and rather more rain - or maybe snow, the snow row figures even for Edinburgh are high teens for a week or so either side of Thu 8th.
ECM - Similar to GFS up to Sun 4th, but then sticking with the original and very cold direct N-ly Mon 5th which persists.
Note: clocks go forward tonight so owing to domestic circumstances I may not always be able to wait for ECM 00z to load when posting this review, for the period of BST (ECM 00z appears in stages, & doesn't finish before 0700 GMT)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl