This looked better for cold than the current op run.

That maintains a very strong Scandi block, would probably lead to cold. See what it shows tomorrow 

I tweaked the GFS download and scripts earlier today to get the charts out a little quicker. Tempting fate, but at times on the 12z run the TWO download was running marginally ahead of all the others I compared it against. One thing to be aware of is that the check to determine whether to shade a button green is currently only made every couple of minutes, so sometimes new charts 2 or 3 time steps ahead will be shown even if the button is grey.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

I've only looked up until 24h on the 18Z.

So far it looks like an upgrade on the 12z.

Looks like an upgrade in terms of warmth. 

Amazing chart.

No point in hiding the fact , it is all over .

It seems for many , the promise of gold was false , such fantastic synoptics that gave very little if we are honest.( Eastern boys and girls will beg to differ ) 

At least we had the January snow , sadly we had no cold to keep it here MBY 

No point in hiding the fact , it is all over .

It seems for many , the promise of gold was false , such fantastic synoptics that gave very little if we are honest.( Eastern boys and girls will beg to differ ) 

At least we had the January snow , sadly we had no cold to keep it here MBY 

I agree - I know this isn't the moaning thread but it is all over. Yes those in the far SE like Kent and the NE of Scotland in particular are fed up of cold and snow but for many this easterly never really delivered did it?

I will do an analysis at some point. 

This is/was the Temp anomaly for February by the CFSv2:

 

I agree - I know this isn't the moaning thread but it is all over. Yes those in the far SE like Kent and the NE of Scotland in particular are fed up of cold and snow but for many this easterly never really delivered did it?

I will do an analysis at some point. 

This is/was the Temp anomaly for February by the CFSv2:

 

It depends how you look at it?

The easterly delivered the coldest UK temperature since 1995 so it’s hard to say it didn’t deliver? It didn’t deliver widespread snow but not many events do?

I have snow on the ground today from Monday. Nothing extreme but it’s delivered so far a cold month. 

That chart has materialised so far pretty well? February may end up below average?

After something of a warm up relative to the current frigidity, ECM in deepest FI is poised with this at 240:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Other runs will offer alternatives no doubt

Looking ahead rather than crying over spilt milk ...

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 has all the cold weather heading for SE Europe and the Black Sea, with the associated pptn map suggesting heavy snowfalls in a band from Italy to Greece to Turkey.

GFS much as yesterday with UK sandwiched between Atlantic LP and Scandia HP. and thus a S-ly flow to Fri 19th ( the HP is weaker than yesterday so occasional troughs moving N and wind direction inclined to be S/SW more than S/SE). Large HP then rocks up over the UK, 1040mb by Mon 22nd, moving first to the N by Thu 25th ( a brief E-ly blast) and then to the W Sun 28th (slack pressure, previous ideas of a N-ly now very weak)

GEfS after this w/e, a spell of normal temps to Fri 19th after which most runs mild to end of run Sun 28th but an increasing proportion incl op run  trending cooler towards the end. Dry ( a bit more rain in the W at first), not to say bone dry after the 19th. 

ECM shows more Atlantic influence at first, with a more marked trough over the NW Wed 17th, and again later with the HP centred over Norway Mon 22nd and weaker at 1030mb

ECM and ECMP show how small differences can make a big difference to the UK's weather.

ECM and ECMP show how small differences can make a big difference to the UK's weather.

 

Isn't our weather a lot more interesting when it comes from the other direction?!   No one knows what we're going to get ! Other than generally being quite dry..... which makes a refreshing change. 

The signal for HP to build somewhere in the vicinity a few days after our breakdown remain strong this morning I see. 

Still too far out for any great confidence on where this will be although somewhere just to out South or South east seems favoured initially with an interesting signal for the HP to move Northwards after that.

As flagged the ECM 240 chart may be dragging in some warm uppers but play it on a touch and I expect it'd be a bit different. 

ECM ens show some colder runs at points although not until the end of the run a more consistent cooling signal is seen. (Interpreted without seeing the clusters which I imagine would tell a better story!).

GEFS are generally mild, certainly at 850 level although a few hints at some cooler stuff appearing in the mid term and towards the end of the run.

GEM op completes the HP dominated theme, with HP building from the South giving us a strong UK HP by T240, which is still shaping to build North. 

Given the time of year the differences between mild and dry and cold and dry are pretty minimal so a bit early to call an early spring or return to cold IMO. What wouldn't surprise me is a few springlike days as the HP builds in before a gradual cool down as it moves far enough North to drag in some cooler continental air again.

From what I can see, the atlantic looks to be making something of a comeback next week but it looks at the moment to be a case of it only making it so far until it possibly is forced to retreat again by the HP block to the east which looks to be reinforcing in strength a week or so from now.

The Met Office extended forecast from yesterday seemed to suggest that HP would possibly return during the weekend of Sat 20th/Sun 21st Feb which fits it quite well with a lot of the op runs at the moment. We shall see what transpires.

A few Quantum runs there in the ensembles. some that never warm up in the SE corner. We will end up with some sort of block to the east, whether its springlike or winter still to be decided

Probably Spring but outside chance of winter continuing.  I don't mind as long as we get one or the other. We dont want a boring halfway house. 

Probably Spring but outside chance of winter continuing.  I don't mind as long as we get one or the other. We dont want a boring halfway house. 

 

Whatever happens certainly will not be as boring as last winter which was dull from start to finish and more like permanent Autumn, I think a taste of spring the most likely outcome this morning but always the risk of a return to something colder as we move towards the end of February.