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The signal for HP to build somewhere in the vicinity a few days after our breakdown remain strong this morning I see.
That'll do me. I don't really care if it's mild or cold as long as it's dry (after the rain next week of course). I just couldn't stand a return to weeks of cold or warm rain.
GFS again firing up the temperatures. It may even be possible to sit outside down here.
Probably Spring but outside chance of winter continuing. I don't mind as long as we get one or the other. We dont want a boring halfway house.
A couple of big dippers towards the end, which might be the start of a trend. It will be interesting to see if this carries weight into the 12z's.
I've got a feeling we haven't seen the end of winter yet.
It's been the longest winter period that I can remember without much of a zonal push, a very -AO/NAO winter.
Detailed ECMP verification information is available here:
https://sites.ecmwf.int/ifs/scorecards/scorecards-47r2HRES.html
Red means the new version is worse than the control (I assume to be the existing operational). Blue means it is better.
It appears they've actually reduced from 64but to 32bit floating point numbers in the new version to free up computational power which provides for an increase in the number of levels (91 to 137) in the ensemble forecasts.
The new version is scheduled for 11th May and is now fully plugged into TWO here:
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx
I'd expect all outliers to be completely gone on the 12z. There is still an outside chance as the trough had not yet developed at 6Z.
There is no chance of keeping cold if the 12Z is on board for mild though.
Hints of an easterly akin to 2018 in the output. Was hoping for spring but if it can give a decent snow event....
Yes hints of Spring and then perhaps another Beast. The GFS 6z a carbon copy of the met office long range forecast.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=300&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0#mapref
I'd expect all outliers to be completely gone on the 12z. There is still an outside chance as the trough had not yet developed at 6Z.There is no chance of keeping cold if the 12Z is on board for mild though.
A few good ones still there. Dont give up just yet!
My appetite has been wetted. Even the GFS now throwing an FI operational run out that takes us back into Beasterly Cold.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=312&code=code&mode=1&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1
All models now firmed up that tomorrow's initial push will fizzle to the west of England, then Sunday's will be rain.
FFS.
Yes hints of Spring and then perhaps another Beast. The GFS 6z a carbon copy of the met office long range forecast. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=300&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0#mapref
Wont be good for the plants and wildlife that will spring into life next week
March is often a cold month these days
Not for me , lost all faith in Easterlies
Pffffttttt means nothing
A surprising show of weakness there Marcus.
To be fair easterlies are never likely to be great for his location, in terms of snow. As Brian has mentioned, the best snow for central parts often comes when the synoptics are just getting ready for an easterly....
Wont be good for the plants and wildlife that will spring into life next weekMarch is often a cold month these days
Indeed, but I think this March has all the hallmarks of a cold one perhaps very cold.
I think they will either be gone or everywhere on the 12Z.
Can't keep hope going after a bad 12z.
Trough is deeper than expected.
1011.9hpa vs 1012.5hpa