GFSP loses the plot a bit later on in the run. 

However, the GEFS mean looks pretty good at 300 hours, plenty of heights to the north.

Following on from the "doughnut" jet over the North Pole the other day, the GFS and GFS(P) not only continue to show this, but both inflate a >1060hPa high near or over the Pole. That's certainly raised an eyebrow, as it's exceptionally rare to get that high a pressure up there!

(GFS)

(GFS(P))

You have to think that if we do get a high that's that high high up in the Arctic then the odds of an easterly must surely improve...

Following on from the "doughnut" jet over the North Pole the other day, the GFS and GFS(P) not only continue to show this, but both inflate a >1060hPa high near or over the Pole. That's certainly raised an eyebrow, as it's exceptionally rare to get that high a pressure up there!

(GFS)

(GFS(P))

You have to think that if we do get a high that's that high high up in the Arctic then the odds of an easterly must surely improve...

And Easterly to deliver true deep cold of -2 to -5C day time maxes I required for.

 

And Easterly to deliver true deep cold of -2 to -5C day time maxes I required for.

P11 might be just what the doctor ordered. Might even breach the Kent snow shield.

Following on from the "doughnut" jet over the North Pole the other day, the GFS and GFS(P) not only continue to show this, but both inflate a >1060hPa high near or over the Pole. That's certainly raised an eyebrow, as it's exceptionally rare to get that high a pressure up there!

(GFS)

(GFS(P))

You have to think that if we do get a high that's that high high up in the Arctic then the odds of an easterly must surely improve...

I worry that a High centred more or less over the North Pole might be too far away to give us an easterly. I'd have thought it made low pressure at say 65N quite likely, which isn't what we want.

Gsp a thing of beauty interesting ecm extended has had this support for a while in the second week of Feb tomorrow’s

 extended ecm  run will be interesting 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202101250000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202102150000

Following on from the "doughnut" jet over the North Pole the other day, the GFS and GFS(P) not only continue to show this, but both inflate a >1060hPa high near or over the Pole. That's certainly raised an eyebrow, as it's exceptionally rare to get that high a pressure up there!

(GFS)

(GFS(P))

You have to think that if we do get a high that's that high high up in the Arctic then the odds of an easterly must surely improve...

ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Is there no end to this easterly influence? The ECM seems to be on board for this scenario too. 

ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h

 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Hopefully adjusts south ever so slightly.

 

Hopefully adjusts south ever so slightly.

London does ok about  5cm ish obviously long way to go but good to see.

ECM has another big snow event at 144 this one further north from about Midlands north.

 

P11 might be just what the doctor ordered. Might even breach the Kent snow shield.

Bet it doesn't breach the Hampshire one though. The southern flank of the  Hampshire snow shield is one of the best in Europe I'd wager.. it's northern being close to 50 miles inland and nearer to that poxy M4 corridor is  little weak though.

Surely surely we have to tap into some of this Scandinavian action at some point....surely ? 

Surely surely we have to tap into some of this Scandinavian action at some point....surely ? 

Look at that heat building over the Mediterranean. I'd say we southernmost southerners have more chance of tapping into that then sub -10C 850's from Scandinavia 

Well a full house of easterlies but just look at the temp gradient. +15c in Sardinia-15c in Denmark 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

12z ENS - I see there is STILL a lot of scatter:

Is there no end to this easterly influence? The ECM seems to be on board for this scenario too. 

I thought you want snow as Aberdeen usually misses out? 

 Look at that heat building over the Mediterranean. I'd say we southernmost southerners have more chance of tapping into that then sub -10C 850's from Scandinavia 

I would agree.

I now understand how the north must feel in summer when we in the south are enduring weeks of heat. On the map the distance appears so small, in reality we may as well be on different continents. 

Well a full house of easterlies but just look at the temp gradient. +15c in Sardinia-15c in Denmark 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Well after dozens of runs showing this and none verifying - let's hope this one comes off and see if the 18z follows the ECM.

 

I would agree.

I now understand how the north must feel in summer when we in the south are enduring weeks of heat. On the map the distance appears so small, in reality we may as well be on different continents. 

😆 so true. And with all this rain we're having down here at least we can say we've had a taste of a northern summer.

 

Bet it doesn't breach the Hampshire one though. The southern flank of the  Hampshire snow shield is one of the best in Europe I'd wager.. it's northern being close to 50 miles inland and nearer to that poxy M4 corridor is  little weak though.

The northern edge of the Hampshire snow shield let through 7cm on Sunday. The last stump of the snowman only gave up the ghost this afternoon.