East London snow shield working wonders again 🤮

3 hrs later looks good for you, but massive uncertainty around the whole thing. 

 

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The northernmost extent showing as close to the same place as last weekend's snow, before slipping away southwards again.

IE, just spitting distance to the south of MBY

 

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It is an unusual winter season.

I have never known such uncertainty both at short and long range almost each week - both from the models and the forecasters

Mid range looks quite clear....cool to mild next week and then..............

The successive SSWs create a higher degree of atmospheric chaos which code and humans alike cannot decipher.

Mind you, keeps us interested 

As I just posted in the media thread... from 13C tomorrow to possible snow at the weekend. GFSP looks good for Saturday, but the forecasts talk about Sunday instead.

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Upgrades on the 12s so far , UKMO looks to keep the marginal slider fun going out to day 6, and GFS going for an easterly again by day 8.

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https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1354464729931116553?s=21 

This is brilliant. You can see how the forecast has changed for Sunday in the last 4-6 runs.

It’s shows how the influence of the Atlantic has waned as the forecast time gets closer.

@ Brian. Idea for a new tool able to choose a timeframe and then loop it over the same time frame for the last 6 runs.

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https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1354464729931116553?s=21

This is brilliant. You can see how the forecast has changed for Sunday in the last 4-6 runs.

It’s shows how the influence of the Atlantic has waned as the forecast time gets closer.

@ Brian. Idea for a new tool able to choose a timeframe and then loop it over the same time frame for the last 6 runs.

Yes i agree that would be a useful tool. It's possible using the archived runs but very time consuming to do it manually. A way to show how the models have trended over the last few days for a given date would be great.

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The GFS 12z para is stunning in FI. 850s of -12 getting in the East of Scotland at 204z:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

 

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The GFS 12z para is stunning in FI. 850s of -12 getting in the East of Scotland at 204z:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

 

 

GEM also a beautiful run. Ends up like this.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Odds on a easterly shortening this evening. 

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GEM also a beautiful run. Ends up like this.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

There's encouraging agreement between GFS Op and Para and GEM for a north-easterly setting in around about 5th February.

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Are we going to see a sudden shift in the ensembles tonight. Today could be the night folks.

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More consistency on offer this evening. Maybe this one has legs after all.

Of Interest for here on Sat...
https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Ip23_7jg 

Had nothing for Sat just a couple of hours ago.

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Are we going to see a sudden shift in the ensembles tonight. Today could be the night folks.

Hope so and tired of seeing impatient mild blips interfering so hope it now removed and from end of Jan to early Feb stay cold all the time.  Seem Gem was the leading models and now others follow suit so hope ECM will follow it so it will be nailed on.  The mild weather can wait until our winter is over  in early March then get in for warm dry Spring.

 

Hope so and tired of seeing impatient mild blips interfering so hope it now removed and from end of Jan to early Feb stay cold all the time.  Seem Gem was the leading models and now others follow suit so hope ECM will follow it so it will be nailed on.  The mild weather can wait until our winter is over  in early March then get in for warm dry Spring.

Will it be in range of the ECM?

 

Will it be in range of the ECM?

Ooops! Apologies, just noticed ECM goes out to t240. 😳

The northernmost extent showing as close to the same place as last weekend's snow, before slipping away southwards again.

IE, just spitting distance to the south of MBY

 

 

Here we go again Saint!... Cusp buddies

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Are we going to see a sudden shift in the ensembles tonight. Today could be the night folks.

Can today be the night? Maybe tonight is the day?

There’s a pattern where the 00Zs are progressive then the 06 and 12Zs more blocked.

I’m looking for a 00Z set that keeps the Scandy high theme - that would be a decent pointer IMO

😊😂

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Will it be in range of the ECM?

Should show as today is 27th so it near Feb now when the easterly will start from the opening days.

 

 

Here we go again Saint!... Cusp buddies

Seem my area again in good spot for the snow at the weekend, a right move to live here only downside missing the warm 25-35C days in Epsom as it hard to get it in here that high for long period of times.