No, that would be high pressure north of the UK. High pressure over the north of the UK would at face value give anticyclonic conditions up here and some form of easterly over the south.

Then its got to be the narrowest of HP's if an Easterly wouldn't be across the Midlands at least ...............as I said we are just guessing anyway 

 

Then its got to be the narrowest of HP's if an Easterly wouldn't be across the Midlands at least ...............as I said we are just guessing anyway 

Something like this would do it:

Or this from the 06z ICON run for Saturday:

 

Does it ?

That's not how I read it yesterday 

Met O Update mentioned about a northerly spell and wintry outbreaks' - nothing about an easterly at all.

As for the ECM: - Nothing easterly about this:

Annoying how the GFS flip from cold to mild to warm to cool and to bitterly cold back to less cold every 6 hours:

Meanwhile the ENS still have some colder sub -10c uppers but so much scatter:

Annoying how the GFS flip from cold to mild to warm to cool and to bitterly cold back to less cold every 6 hours:

Meanwhile the ENS still have some colder sub -10c uppers but so much scatter:

That's a mess!

 

That's a mess!

I think we have to go by what the met office say "wintry outbreaks' - Met never mention about any return to prolonged mild weather. We just can't continue believing the models when they flip flop every 6 hours. As soon as you see an easterly on the GFS it get's washed away by the next run or get's pushed back, whilst another model shows an easterly and it's member run like control/para shows mild - and vice versa. It's frustrating. I don't think I have experienced a winter with such huge swings in the model output every 6 hours.

It's not even worth discussing unless there is some cross model agreement. Surely the Met are more accurate and have access to more data/computer models than we do. I mean we all know models can flip and there are set backs but this is the case every 6 hours isn't it? Or maybe we should just focus on the short to medium term models like GEM, ECM and Icon. GEM doesn't flip so wildly but at the same time , the time is ticking for us to get an easterly...?

The proximity of southerly tracking lows and a lack of serious cold mean that the south will be under perpetual battleground synoptics for some time, with (mostly) a lot of rain. No proper easterly likely in the next ten days or so. Roll on Spring LOL

Further north, the scenario remains one of largely cold air so winter continues (away from Aberdeen) 

The proximity of southerly tracking lows and a lack of serious cold mean that the south will be under perpetual battleground synoptics for some time, with (mostly) a lot of rain. No proper easterly likely in the next ten days or so. Roll on Spring LOL

Further north, the scenario remains one of largely cold air so winter continues (away from Aberdeen) 

You can off people really quickly you know 

(I'm not saying that you're wrong though! )

The 06z GFS op run so far epitomises what you are saying. Cool (up here) rather than cold with some "battleground" scenarios.

Sunday also is now becoming a serious ‘watch day’

There are a sufficient number of slider lows in the ensembles to suggest to me that this could be a good snow event for some.

Sunday now becoming the most critical day of the winter. If things go out way, I think it’s game on, if it doesn’t, more waiting required.

Astonishing to think that GFSP, brings in an easterly in a 96hr timeframe.

Crazy. Let’s hope this is a start of a trend please.

Very plausible though, the weekend could spring a few surprises. As more observations of the true changes and readings the models will be flipping as we are not in a mobile pattern currently

People keep quoting the models "flip flopping" but that is because they still haven't learnt the lesson of relying on operational runs over a week out from current. They haven't been flip flopping at all if you only look at the ensembles! They have been consistent in showing total uncertainty in the mid to long term with a trend in the mean just drifting by a couple of degrees milder or cooler with each run. Currently the drift is towards milder, yesterday it was towards cooler but the level of uncertainty remains largely the same. The even spread of +8C to -12C pretty much tells the story. But, hey ho, people will  still grasp at whatever they want to happen.

There must be a degree of credence in the idea of an easterly as the GEFS keep throwing in easterly hybrids or even stonking classics of yesteryear (p19 or even p24 for potential).

The GEFS has a mean Scandy high at 240 and not for the first time 

Annoying how the GFS flip from cold to mild to warm to cool and to bitterly cold back to less cold every 6 hours:

Meanwhile the ENS still have some colder sub -10c uppers but so much scatter:

At 282t the majority of 6z ENS are showing a pressure rise to the NE. Here's the average at that point:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=282&run=6&lid=AVG&h=0&tr=6&mv=0

With so much volatility in the model runs for the medium to long term, it's really all about trends. There is clearly a trend in the ENS to a pressure build to the NE as we go through the 1st week in February. How that actually effects us in terms of the weather is open to question, although the potential for a potent cold spell is certainly there.

 

At 282t the majority of 6z ENS are showing a pressure rise to the NE. Here's the average at that point:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=282&run=6&lid=AVG&h=0&tr=6&mv=0

With so much volatility in the model runs for the medium to long term, it's really all about trends. There is clearly a trend in the ENS to a pressure build to the NE as we go through the 1st week in February. How that actually effects us in terms of the weather is open to question, although the potential for a potent cold spell is certainly there.

The POTENTIAL has been there most winter, the reality is  cool with outbreaks of snow sleet rain, and everything else 

Still firmly in Murray Walker territory IMO.