Arguably the  best set of 12s of the entire winter with snowy sliders and then easterlies.  

Regarding the ECM the south is heading to the freezer if we could have seen day 11 onwards 

Is there no end to this easterly influence? The ECM seems to be on board for this scenario too. 

Big snow for Eastern Scotland & Glasgow if the latter stages of ECM verify. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

If the showers line up well then Aberdeen would join the party too. There would be no rain. 

Frigid air spilling out of Scandinavia across the warm North Sea is one of the UK’s biggest snow makers, especially as showers filter up the Forth Clyde valleys. 

 

Look at that heat building over the Mediterranean. I'd say we southernmost southerners have more chance of tapping into that then sub -10C 850's from Scandinavia 

We'll probably end up with another 20C heatwave in February if that trend continues.

ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h

 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

One to watch that's for sure 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20210130-1200z.html

 

One to watch that's for sure 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20210130-1200z.html

Yes it's good for our bit of the world we deserve a bit of luck. It's quite marginal so no guarantees. 

Time for Darren to roll out the ensemble watch again! Or maybe wait for the 0z lol

If it helps there are 20 ensemble members that reach -10 (t850hPa) here on the latest GEFS suite. 

Some of the colder options are, wait for it, almost cold enough for snow here despite the easterly influence.  

Unfortunately the more extreme options are usually the less likely ones.

At a glance the ECM ensemble data seem quite supportive of the op run this evening

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png 

ECM has a big snow event M4 north upto Manchester across to Norwich 5cm to 15cm widely . Only 72h

 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=72&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

How do you get to see precip / accumulations on that map?

I can only see options for 850s etc

One can dream .....😴

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-12-1-240.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-19-1-240.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-5-1-300.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-300.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-384.png

 

 

How do you get to see precip / accumulations on that map?

I can only see options for 850s etc

Hello you can view the ECM precipitation charts and a lot more from here

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/precipitation-1h/20210127-2100z.html

 

 

How do you get to see precip / accumulations on that map?

I can only see options for 850s etc

Go to snow depth inches. Saturday afternoon . In change parameters. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20210130-1200z.html

ECM clusters have moved significantly towards easterlies tonight as have th3 15 day ensembles and wind directions

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101271200&cluster=264_360&parameter=1000

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021012712,0,2021012712&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=Chester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=12

Martin

ECM clusters have moved significantly towards easterlies tonight as have th3 15 day ensembles and wind directions

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101271200&cluster=264_360&parameter=1000

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021012712,0,2021012712&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=Chester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=12

Martin

I know Steve (Gusty)likes these charts and pays a lot of attention to them. He will be happy

 

 

We'll probably end up with another 20C heatwave in February if that trend continues.

Wouldn't put it past it.

ECM ens mean. looksblocked

Well done to GEM for being the first to pick this up, of course it could all yet go wrong

Gefs look potentially cold from around the 4th Feb..think personally this is a date to watch from there out...

I have been saying for a few days that if 4th Feb still looks cold by the end of this week then it could be game on. 

 

 

London does ok about  5cm ish obviously long way to go but good to see.

ECM has another big snow event at 144 this one further north from about Midlands north.

we should be looking at consistency at 144 and watch for pressure dropping over the Med. I’m still holding out for a decent easterly 2nd week of Feb.

 

Hello you can view the ECM precipitation charts and a lot more from here

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/precipitation-1h/20210127-2100z.html

Thanks very much 👍🏼