Go to snow depth inches. Saturday afternoon . In change parameters. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20210130-1200z.html

 

And..Thanks also!

One can dream .....😴

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-12-1-240.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/legacy/run/gens-19-1-240.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-5-1-300.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-300.png

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-384.png

You missed the best one https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021012712/gensnh-28-1-360.png

Almost 60 hours snow event for midlands south in -10 air or colder.

The question is will we still see all this on the 18z and the following 00z.

It seems that we keep loosing the momentum, and by the morning we are back almost to square one.

But then you watch Tomasz and he's concentrating on the mild air, 'like Spring' today and tomorrow and after a cooldown over the weekend it will turn mild all next week. Bit of white stuff on the map tomorrow and Sunday but don't worry, more likely to be sleet! He's doing my head in!

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Finally after banging on about the chances of prolonged very cold to deep cold for over about three weeks (seems longer) it looks as if the wait may finally be over. Not including this weekends possible snow events ( icon trending more amplified and colder, with more areas at risk this weekend) we are still talking 8 to 10 day range for the really cold air to kick in so looking at trends rather than detail. I am sure by the weekend we will be looking at some crazy synoptics both for cold and snow.
Overnight and morning runs seem less amplified I wonder if this is anything to do with covid and less flight data perhaps. Or am I talking rubbish !

 Or am I talking rubbish !

A bit too optimistic if you ask me... 

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But then you watch Tomasz and he's concentrating on the mild air, 'like Spring' today and tomorrow and after a cooldown over the weekend it will turn mild all next week. Bit of white stuff on the map tomorrow and Sunday but don't worry, more likely to be sleet! He's doing my head in!

 

  yes I saw that he has been particularly irritating the last few nights ! Really ramping up the mild conditions set to dominate in the south for the next week or so apart from a blip at the weekend even then he said much too mild for snow ! 

 

  yes I saw that he has been particularly irritating the last few nights ! Really ramping up the mild conditions set to dominate in the south for the next week or so apart from a blip at the weekend even then he said much too mild for snow ! 

Tomasz requires re-education, some time spent in a dark room; with a flashlight in the hands of Rob McElwee should do it.

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Saturday now looks more interesting than Sunday in these parts.

In the longer term there's still a signal for high pressure to be more influential on the UK's weather. 

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Having a Low pressure stuck off the East Coast for over 20hrs (192hrs onwards) on the GFSP would be mad😳

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Having a Low pressure stuck off the East Coast for over 20hrs (192hrs onwards) on the GFSP would be mad😳

Its actually there alot earlier before travelling back west around 240hrs.

One can but dream.

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Tomasz says too difficult to call, maybe a bit of sleet as a weak white blob moved west over south Wales. I think he's making his own graphics up

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Finally after banging on about the chances of prolonged very cold to deep cold for over about three weeks (seems longer) it looks as if the wait may finally be over. Not including this weekends possible snow events ( icon trending more amplified and colder, with more areas at risk this weekend) we are still talking 8 to 10 day range for the really cold air to kick in so looking at trends rather than detail. I am sure by the weekend we will be looking at some crazy synoptics both for cold and snow.
Overnight and morning runs seem less amplified I wonder if this is anything to do with covid and less flight data perhaps. Or am I talking rubbish !

I can't see any of this in the charts or the forecasts to be honest. What evidence are you basing this on?

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  yes I saw that he has been particularly irritating the last few nights ! Really ramping up the mild conditions set to dominate in the south for the next week or so apart from a blip at the weekend even then he said much too mild for snow ! 

The truth hurts sometimes !

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Parallel run really seems to be picking up on the trend for another far west based NAO. History repeating? Promising synoptics soon scuppered by the high heading to Canada.

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The short range 18z GFS ensemble data are quite impressive up here 

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Tomasz says too difficult to call, maybe a bit of sleet as a weak white blob moved west over south Wales. I think he's making his own graphics up

Yes - i said in the media thread - also he never mentioned about the cold later next week as models have shown from 3/4th Feb. Just double figure temperatures and turning milder and wetter.

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18z ENS for London has shifted colder so far the ENS mean AVG for instance on 6th Feb is -6.2c in comparison with the 12z for 6th of February of -4.3c - A shift to colder on that day by almost 2.0c.

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Just looking through different ENS runs for Sat 6th Feb: - Quite a few go down to or even below the -10c @850hpa and usually this is a recipe for ice days.

P30 - Sat 6th Feb:

P8: - Sat 6th Feb:

P28: - Uppers of -10c and that Atlantic system could bring significant snow:

p22:

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The stuff dreams are made of.

maybe would break 850s records ?