Yeh its not really much different to the rapidly southerly orrecting sliders which started off looking the same last friday

I wonder if we are moving to a prolonged dry spell rather than wintry one?

I was thinking the same, I'd gladly take some drier weather, snow or no snow, mild or cold.  Still so much to unravel yet though.

Todays exact same example was rain.

Except it wasn’t the same because overnight Friday into Saturday the Arctic air mass advects south whereas yesterday morning’s rain was running into relatively mild uppers - except over parts of Scotland.

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Just caught the 7am forecast and tomorrow's snow event has been trended further south and the band never really turns to snow until its clearing away south through South Wales.

Just caught the 7am forecast and tomorrow's snow event has been trended further south and the band never really turns to snow until its clearing away south through South Wales.

Again, if you are watching the BBC it is based on ECM, UKV has stayed pretty solid today - so far.

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Again, if you are watching the BBC it is based on ECM, UKV has stayed pretty solid today - so far.

 

Do you have a link to UKV please or is it on this site?

Tomorrow looks like its downgraded massively barely any settled snow away from Welsh hills. 

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Tomorrow looks like its downgraded massively barely any settled snow away from Welsh hills. 

Quelle surprise. 

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Quelle surprise. 

I think for my sanity most people missing out is better than just missing out. 

Sunday may be better for your area though also Tuesday. 

 

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Tomorrow looks like its downgraded massively barely any settled snow away from Welsh hills. 

It never looked a strong favourite, given the way these situations tend to trend. But several of the high res models this morning still bring an area of mostly patchy light rain NE in the hours before sunrise tomorrow and then turn it to sleet and snow as a slightly heavier precipitation moves in. Probably at most 2-4 hours of sleet or snow but barely much of a covering away from elevation.

Of course, like all these finely balanced set-ups, the fine detail will change with each run through the day - and then what actually happens will be slightly different again.

Here's the most optimistic for snow:

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Tuesday is interesting but so far off I would not be wise to get hopes up yet.
Met Office automated for here currently shows heavy snow Tuesday and lighter snow Wednesday and Thursday which would be fantastic but it is so far out.
GFS 6z makes little of the snow and Icon 6z is further south with it barely making it North of here . Anything could happen, I reckon the usual trend south.

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It never looked at strong favourite, given the way these situations tend to trend. But several of the high res models this morning still bring an area of mostly patchy light rain NE in the hours before sunrise tomorrow and then turn it to sleet and snow as a slightly heavier precipitation moves in. Probably at most 2-4 hours of sleet or snow but barely much of a covering away from elevation.

Of course, like all these finely balanced set-ups, the fine detail will change with each run through the day - and then what actually happens will be slightly different again.

Here's the most optimistic for snow:

I'd expect that many of us north of London, in the area shown on that chart, will see trailing edge snow but with limited accumulations.

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Looking at the high-res models it will only really turn to snow as it moves south and fizzles out. I think a few hours of moderate to heavy rain followed by an hour or so of light snow is likely here tomorrow.

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Suprise dusting of snow tommorow for the North

North sea convection machine may be starting up according to high res WRF runs

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current south drifting front into Central Belt is.... rain

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current south drifting front into Central Belt is.... rain

Yes, it has been raining for about 24hr here now. The cold air will move down with the drier conditions later. I actually saw a bit of sleety rain a short while ago for a change from cold rain. The temperature is edging down a little though, albeit only to 3.0ºC currently.

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ARPEGE ensemble mean has snow for Somerset northward (for a time):

Parts of N England in particular aswell as the N midlands could do very well indeed.

Uncertainty starts to drop from Yorkshire northwards. So better chance of snow this time hopefully than yesterday.

 

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Looking at the high-res models it will only really turn to snow as it moves south and fizzles out. I think a few hours of moderate to heavy rain followed by an hour or so of light snow is likely here tomorrow.

Was just having a quick look at the models for tomorrow to see how cold my rain might be

I'd not be surprised either if it's all rain or if we get 5/10 mins of light snow/sleet as the band sinks south and decays. GEM and GFS also show the possibility of more of the same for late Sunday evening for MBY, GEM more keen, GFS less so. I imagine the law of sod will guarantee that as soon as it's cold enough to snow the precip will die out. That law nicely demonstrated by last Sundays returning band and contrasted with the cold rain on Tuesday which pepped up nicely.

I guess I shouldn't complain too much though, yesterdays very mild and wet bike ride felt positively tropical compared to most of the wet stuff over the last 5 weeks or so

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ARPEGE ensemble mean has snow for Somerset northward (for a time):

Parts of N England in particular aswell as the N midlands could do very well indeed.

Uncertainty starts to drop from Yorkshire northwards. So better chance of snow this time hopefully than yesterday.

 

 

The majority of that pink will turn out to be blue

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Major snow event on the ARPEGE12z for Tuesday.

Will post the UK charts when they arrive.

 

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The majority of that pink will turn out to be blue

Why?

Just because the event yesterday had the rain/snow line much further north doesn't mean this one will. Its further south and there is colder air on the northern side.

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