The great "so near yet so far" winter of 20/21

I'm sick of it. But I also hate mild weather in winter, which is even more depressing.

The great "so near yet so far" winter of 20/21

 

Which I've read on here so many times in the last 20 years ! This one may be slipping away. Whilst there are still prospects of a few days cold if you look back at the charts of a few days ago the original epic evolution has been completely scuppered by the intense low pressure systems coming in from  the SW. The very cold and snowy northerly influence went with them and now we are looking at Easterly with the hope of a non-marginal LP bumping into the cold air. 

 

Which I've read on here so many times in the last 20 years ! This one may be slipping away. Whilst there are still prospects of a few days cold if you look back at the charts of a few days ago the original epic evolution has been completely scuppered by the intense low pressure systems coming in from  the SW. The very cold and snowy northerly influence went with them and now we are looking at Easterly with the hope of a non-marginal LP bumping into the cold air. 

Yep. The more southerly track that Atlantic lows had been forecast to take into mainland Europe are instead slamming right into the UK and blowing away any building cold from all but the NE of England and much of Scotland.

All very disappointing, as we're just 2-300 miles from a very nice evolution. 

The wait for the catastrophic snow event (ideally 1m+ over all the UK followed by a freeze lasting a few weeks) goes on.

 

 

Yep. The more southerly track that Atlantic lows had been forecast to take into mainland Europe are instead slamming right into the UK and blowing away any building cold from all but the NE of England and much of Scotland.

All very disappointing, as we're just 2-300 miles from a very nice evolution. 

The wait for the catastrophic snow event (ideally 1m+ over all the UK followed by a freeze lasting a few weeks) goes on.

You’ll almost certainly take that wait to your death bed Saint.  :D 

Reading the posts above I started thinking about BFTE. If I remember correctly it was well forecast and apart from a few small changes to the updates the models were all on board about 8 days before the fun started happening on the East coast around the evening of Monday 26th February 2018.

On the Sunday 25th February the charts looked amazing for the SW with bitter ESE winds -13 to -15 850s and the prospect of heavy channel streamers. We also had the epic channel low forecast to scoot up the channel and deliver an amazing snow storm to all SW coastal counties on the Thursday 01st March...

Then the reality check started to happen on the Monday morning, the low now known as Storm Emma was forecast to stall in the SW approaches and bring milder conditions back to us on Friday 02nd March. After 36hrs of sub zero temperatures and snow it changed like the flick of a switch. I now refer to Storm Emma as The Great Half Blizzard of 2018.

Powdery drifting snow in winds gusting to 50mph at a temp of -3.2c turning into freezing rain and +2.0c in one hour as warmer air came into the mix.

Why am I going on about the Beast? Well it shows how quickly a pattern can change when every models is agreeing and showing almost the same pattern. 
This possible cold spell could go both ways even within 72hrs. I would be happy with a cold easterly a few inches of snow for 2 or 3 days and then spring. I would love 2ft and 10ft drifts but I’ll only find that in reference books of snow storms gone by...

 

 

Yep. The more southerly track that Atlantic lows had been forecast to take into mainland Europe are instead slamming right into the UK and blowing away any building cold from all but the NE of England and much of Scotland.

All very disappointing, as we're just 2-300 miles from a very nice evolution. 

The wait for the catastrophic snow event (ideally 1m+ over all the UK followed by a freeze lasting a few weeks) goes on.

Has that ever happened ?

I think you might have to wait a few million years for Continental Drift to move the UK into the Arctic Circle

Reading the posts above I started thinking about BFTE. If I remember correctly it was well forecast and apart from a few small changes to the updates the models were all on board about 8 days before the fun started happening on the East coast around the evening of Monday 26th February 2018.

On the Sunday 25th February the charts looked amazing for the SW with bitter ESE winds -13 to -15 850s and the prospect of heavy channel streamers. We also had the epic channel low forecast to scoot up the channel and deliver an amazing snow storm to all SW coastal counties on the Thursday 01st March...

Then the reality check started to happen on the Monday morning, the low now known as Storm Emma was forecast to stall in the SW approaches and bring milder conditions back to us on Friday 02nd March. After 36hrs of sub zero temperatures and snow it changed like the flick of a switch. I now refer to Storm Emma as The Great Half Blizzard of 2018.

Powdery drifting snow in winds gusting to 50mph at a temp of -3.2c turning into freezing rain and +2.0c in one hour as warmer air came into the mix.

Why am I going on about the Beast? Well it shows how quickly a pattern can change when every models is agreeing and showing almost the same pattern. 
This possible cold spell could go both ways even within 72hrs. I would be happy with a cold easterly a few inches of snow for 2 or 3 days and then spring. I would love 2ft and 10ft drifts but I’ll only find that in reference books of snow storms gone by...

Yes one gets the feeling that 10 criteria have to be followed to get a result and if just one goes wrong than we have a no-show

Its been a thoroughly depressing winter here on the Sussex coast the winter of grey skies and cold rain interspersed with the odd sunny clear day. At least there have been few decent frosts this year but the main theme as with last year has been the rain whatever synoptics have been shown the weather on the ground has been much the same

Manchester Winter Index is currently 98, even with a completely, snowless exceptionally mild and frost free period from now to end of February, the index will finish about the low 70s.

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Another dire January to add to the long list. I thought 1988-2004 was bad enough but the horrendous sequence since 2005  is on another level entirely.

Other than the two snowy Januaries of 2010 and 2013 only 2016 has managed a cover of more than 2cm. That's just incredulous especially as many haven't even been particularly mild. In fact only 2005, 2006, 2007, 2014, 2017 and 2020 could be classed as mild the rest average or cold but that doesn't seem to make any difference any more. This month will be the coldest January since 1984 and it has still produced almost no snow whatsoever ;

Here is the shameful list of maximum snow depths this totally useless month has produced each year since 2005

2005 - 2cm
2006  - 0
2007 - 2cm
2008 - 0
2009 - 0
2010 - 19cm
2011 - 0.5cm
2012  - 0
2013 - 16cm
2014 - 0
2015  - 2cm
2016 - 5cm
2017  - 2cm
2018 - 0
2019 - 2cm
2020 - 0
2021 - 2cm

Take out 2010 and 2013 and it's what you'd expect in April 

Indeed the same number of Aprils have seen 5cm cover in that period - 2010 and 2012 saw 5cm and 6cm, respectively, at 9am while 2015 saw 5cm in the evening as late as the 26th. Yes six years ago we saw more snow, less than five days from the start of May, than we now have seen in almost three years 

January is the month that's changed the most along with June. January has gone from being the coldest and snowiest month to being a total write-off virtually every single year. Likewise June has gone from being the sunniest and most reliably settled month to being a total write-off virtually every single year 

Manchester Winter Index is currently 98, even with a completely, snowless exceptionally mild and frost free period from now to end of February, the index will finish about the low 70s

That's nothing to moan about then

Almost in the top 10 from tha last 40-50 years from your list

FWIW I think the London value to go with your 98 is about 30. There has been quite a marked N/S split this winter with regards to snow days and max temps - although we are doing really well for cold rain down here

Another dire January to add to the long list. I thought 1988-2004 was bad enough but the horrendous sequence since 2005  is on another level entirely.

Other than the two snowy Januaries of 2010 and 2013 only 2016 has managed a cover of more than 2cm. That's just incredulous especially as many haven't even been particularly mild. In fact only 2005, 2006, 2007, 2014, 2017 and 2020 could be classed as mild the rest average or cold but that doesn't seem to make any difference any more. This month will be the coldest January since 1984 and it has still produced almost no snow whatsoever ;

Here is the shameful list of maximum snow depths this totally useless month has produced each year since 2005

2005 - 2cm
2006  - 0
2007 - 2cm
2008 - 0
2009 - 0
2010 - 19cm
2011 - 0.5cm
2012  - 0
2013 - 16cm
2014 - 0
2015  - 2cm
2016 - 5cm
2017  - 2cm
2018 - 0
2019 - 2cm
2020 - 0
2021 - 2cm

Take out 2010 and 2013 and it's what you'd expect in April 

Indeed the same number of Aprils have seen 5cm cover in that period - 2010 and 2012 saw 5cm and 6cm, respectively, at 9am while 2015 saw 5cm in the evening as late as the 26th. Yes six years ago we saw more snow, less than five days from the start of May, than we now have seen in almost three years 

January is the month that's changed the most along with June. January has gone from being the coldest and snowiest month to being a total write-off virtually every single year. Likewise June has gone from being the sunniest and most reliably settled month to being a total write-off virtually every single year 

Really 2cms? I thought Doc reported 5cms of snow earlier in January and on Xmas Eve early hours 5cms?

Are you saying the last fall of 10cm or above in Aberdeen was 8 years ago in the spring of 2013? (March 2013)

Exeter - although has been dire for snow since 2018 at least have 8" of snow on 1st March and a further 6" of snow on 18th March 2018.

It has been so dire - more cold rain for us today - apart from the odd white splodge in heavier burst it's another day of rain and cold rain and we really don't need this do we?

I saw the outlook for Aberdeen and looks like it won't get much below -1c and or above +4c for a week. But you could get some snow? Fingers crossed you do..!? 

I don't know about other parts of the country but this is turning in to the best winter for decades down here. As I'm typing it's 1.8c and there's more lovely cold rain falling - I've lost count of the number of cold rain events we've had down here and it's been fantastic to see mild rain in the minority and even better that all that beautiful cold rain hasn't been spoiled by turning to snow. 

It's looking pretty good for another cold rain event on Tuesday too

I'm a bit worried by the mid/long range output at the moment as that's suggesting something of a deterioration in the current perfect conditions with a greater chance of rain falling as snow which would be a bit depressing but given how the models have toyed with that over the last few weeks and it hasn't come off I'm hopeful that as we get nearer the time we'll manage to keep that cold rain falling instead

Cracking stuff

I don't know about other parts of the country but this is turning in to the best winter for decades down here. As I'm typing it's 1.8c and there's more lovely cold rain falling - I've lost count of the number of cold rain events we've had down here and it's been fantastic to see mild rain in the minority and even better that all that beautiful cold rain hasn't been spoiled by turning to snow. 

It's looking pretty good for another cold rain event on Tuesday too

I'm a bit worried by the mid/long range output at the moment as that's suggesting something of a deterioration in the current perfect conditions with a greater chance of rain falling as snow which would be a bit depressing but given how the models have toyed with that over the last few weeks and it hasn't come off I'm hopeful that as we get nearer the time we'll manage to keep that cold rain falling instead

Cracking stuff

What's so good about cold rain given many grounds are already saturated and many rivers are on the 'brink'? of bursting their banks if they haven't yet Explain?

 

What's so good about cold rain given many grounds are already saturated and many rivers are on the 'brink'? of bursting their banks if they haven't yet Explain?

I didn't think I needed to flag that was a sarcastic post but apparently I did

I've been consoling myself for the last 5/6 weeks of mostly cold rain whilst other places get snow, that there must be a total weirdo somewhere whose favourite weather type is cold rain and he's having an all time classic winter as a result. Whilst me and my fellow Kentites are moaning about 2c and rain from the only weather type that usually guarantees snow down here, the easterly, my imaginary weirdo will be rating Jan 2021 as one of the best winter months of all time. 

Reading the posts above I started thinking about BFTE. If I remember correctly it was well forecast and apart from a few small changes to the updates the models were all on board about 8 days before the fun started happening on the East coast around the evening of Monday 26th February 2018.

On the Sunday 25th February the charts looked amazing for the SW with bitter ESE winds -13 to -15 850s and the prospect of heavy channel streamers. We also had the epic channel low forecast to scoot up the channel and deliver an amazing snow storm to all SW coastal counties on the Thursday 01st March...

Then the reality check started to happen on the Monday morning, the low now known as Storm Emma was forecast to stall in the SW approaches and bring milder conditions back to us on Friday 02nd March. After 36hrs of sub zero temperatures and snow it changed like the flick of a switch. I now refer to Storm Emma as The Great Half Blizzard of 2018.

Powdery drifting snow in winds gusting to 50mph at a temp of -3.2c turning into freezing rain and +2.0c in one hour as warmer air came into the mix.

Why am I going on about the Beast? Well it shows how quickly a pattern can change when every models is agreeing and showing almost the same pattern. 
This possible cold spell could go both ways even within 72hrs. I would be happy with a cold easterly a few inches of snow for 2 or 3 days and then spring. I would love 2ft and 10ft drifts but I’ll only find that in reference books of snow storms gone by...

Great post and I'm afraid to say I am old enough to remember films on the news of 10 foot drifts on Dartmoor on more than one occasion.

 

Has that ever happened ?

I think you might have to wait a few million years for Continental Drift to move the UK into the Arctic Circle

If you count drifts most of us managed it in 62/63 

Its been a thoroughly depressing winter here on the Sussex coast the winter of grey skies and cold rain interspersed with the odd sunny clear day. At least there have been few decent frosts this year but the main theme as with last year has been the rain whatever synoptics have been shown the weather on the ground has been much the same

You're spoilt - at least you've had frosts !

 

That's nothing to moan about then

Almost in the top 10 from tha last 40-50 years from your list

FWIW I think the London value to go with your 98 is about 30. There has been quite a marked N/S split this winter with regards to snow days and max temps - although we are doing really well for cold rain down here

 

Well East of London it rates 0 and 1000 for cold rain which we have yet again today whilst it is snowing in the "mild" South West !

I don't know about other parts of the country but this is turning in to the best winter for decades down here. As I'm typing it's 1.8c and there's more lovely cold rain falling - I've lost count of the number of cold rain events we've had down here and it's been fantastic to see mild rain in the minority and even better that all that beautiful cold rain hasn't been spoiled by turning to snow. 

It's looking pretty good for another cold rain event on Tuesday too

I'm a bit worried by the mid/long range output at the moment as that's suggesting something of a deterioration in the current perfect conditions with a greater chance of rain falling as snow which would be a bit depressing but given how the models have toyed with that over the last few weeks and it hasn't come off I'm hopeful that as we get nearer the time we'll manage to keep that cold rain falling instead

Cracking stuff

I love a good spoof, parody and sheer sarcasm. Of course just across the Thames Estuary from you I am also watching the latest bout of cold rain - on a day that was at least forecast to be dry. I sometimes think others that invade our thread are complete usurpers showing off with odd words like sn*w which should banned from here