Given the dry-looking medium range outlook, I think it is a case of hoping that forecast 20-25 mm of rain for Kent tomorrow and into Thurs AM does come off in order to at least bring some green back to my still dead-as-a-doornail lawn. 

 

Yup, really need to bank the promised rain down here. The story so far this summer is that the forecast totals fail to verify. I had to get the hosepipe out yet again yesterday because the plants were wilting - despite the ‘epic’ unsettled spell. 

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The story so far this summer is that the forecast totals fail to verify.

 

Likewise, only the opposite way. 

Kev B will have totals for this area, but this month must be running around twice average. Think it's rained every day, with some huge downpours and rain solid throughout today until around 8pm.

 

 

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Likewise, only the opposite way. 

Kev B will have totals for this area, but this month must be running around twice average. Think it's rained every day, with some huge downpours and rain solid throughout today until around 8pm.

 

 

 

The dreaded NW/SE split has been even more pronounced than normal. 

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The dreaded NW/SE split has been even more pronounced than normal. 

Also I think there is the south east and the south east. Here the grass is looking very green and the weather has been poor in recent weeks. 

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Also I think there is the south east and the south east. Here the grass is looking very green and the weather has been poor in recent weeks. 

 

The South East east of the Chiltern Hills is very different to the SE west (or on top) of the Chilterns. Several times I have watched my promised rain get stuck over the Chilterns and fizzle out before it reaches me.

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Given the dry-looking medium range outlook, I think it is a case of hoping that forecast 20-25 mm of rain for Kent tomorrow and into Thurs AM does come off in order to at least bring some green back to my still dead-as-a-doornail lawn. 

The rain is desperately needed Ian.  I am hoping for a complete soaking from the quasi-stationary wiggling front.

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Also I think there is the south east and the south east. Here the grass is looking very green and the weather has been poor in recent weeks. 

I’m more central southern England and it has been pretty dry here too. Even though it rained on Sunday morning, by the afternoon the tomato plants were wilting again. The soil is still very dusty. 

Only 9mm here so far in July after 36mm in June and 1mm in May. 

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Also I think there is the south east and the south east. Here the grass is looking very green and the weather has been poor in recent weeks. 

It certainly isn't green round here, Brian.  Most of the showery stuff has passed us by.

But with the Test match this week it was bound to become unsettled.....

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I’m more central southern England and it has been pretty dry here too. Even though it rained on Sunday morning, by the afternoon the tomato plants were wilting again. The soil is still very dusty. 

Only 9mm here so far in July after 36mm in June and 1mm in May. 

Similar story here in my part of the East Midlands.  Plenty of promising cloud and little sunshine this month but very little rain.  We had showers yesterday and fine drizzle now, otherwise we’ve had little more than unmeasurable spits and spots, which have greened up our lawn following the dry Spring.  There has been rain locally but it’s seldom touched MBY.  

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Yup, really need to bank the promised rain down here. The story so far this summer is that the forecast totals fail to verify. I had to get the hosepipe out yet again yesterday because the plants were wilting - despite the ‘epic’ unsettled spell. 

and the same here   nothing really worthwhile rain wise  in the past 3 months 

The long modelled rain looks like bypassing here too. Even yesterday the forecast was for two wet days here but today just occasional light rain and that seems optimistic.

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Some quite amazing variations locally with rainfall...My back garden and lawn has gone from a parched Southern Mediterranean look to a lush green over the past 4 weeks..Mostly in part to the thundery spell a few weeks back....

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I won't repeat a description of how dry it has been here (for which, see my EOM report in the June Precip. thread) but last night my wife told me that she had seen on TV a map showing rainfall across the country for June which really did bring out how dry the weather had been in the London area and S and E of London.  She couldn't remember if the colours were blue for over average and brown for under average, which (IIRC) would have matched the MetO maps of monthly rainfall.   I'm not sure where to start looking for this map, if it has been published on the internet yet, but perhaps someone more expert that me might try looking, as it would be very interesting to add to the current discussion.

P.S. I've just thought that perhaps the map was produced from MetO raw data by another organisation (Meteogroup?) so might not be publicly available yet.

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As noted above, models not handling regional rainfall totals well - very little in central southern England.

For today

GFS - HP moving in after the current LP departs, but mainly focused on the S with Atlantic depressions continuing to brush the N of Scotland for the whole of next week. Then a general pressure drop over the UK Mon 20th resoving itself into LP centre over the N for the rest of that week

GEFS temps drop to a low Sat 11th rising slowly to norm Tue 16th (earlier in Scotland) after which runs disagree but my view is warmer for a few days then back down again. Rain from Sat 18th onwards, though not a lot in the S. 

ECM like GFS but keeps Atlantic lows a bit further off to the N

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GFS and to an extent ECM have been flattening the upcoming ridge progressively over a few runs as the time nears. This morning GFS is going back to a zonal train of depressions once the weekend ridge moves away.

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I’m more central southern England and it has been pretty dry here too. Even though it rained on Sunday morning, by the afternoon the tomato plants were wilting again. The soil is still very dusty. 

Only 9mm here so far in July after 36mm in June and 1mm in May. 

Here we've had:

June 62mm

July 16mm

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GFS and to an extent ECM have been flattening the upcoming ridge progressively over a few runs as the time nears. This morning GFS is going back to a zonal train of depressions once the weekend ridge moves away.

Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.

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Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.

NW/SE split is the form horse, outlook looks pretty decent down here.

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NW/SE split is the form horse, outlook looks pretty decent down here.

You should have mentioned that before. 

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Yes I flagged this up to the Met guy on Twitter last night. I've got less confidence than they apparently do about next week. Having said that it will almost certainly be a significantly better in the south than at the present time.

The GEFS last night were fairly unanimous in a steady rise in 850s and very little rain for the south. This morning there’s a big split from the 15th with a cluster going much more unsettled again. 

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