Thankfully there does not seem to be an easterly dominance parent on the ensemble data here

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0&type=4&ext=1 

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Drier 06z on GEFS:

The relatively dry and warm ENS for Fort William (more so than London vs averages) and declining wind speeds suggests to me a North Atlantic blocking pattern and quite a few runs with Easterlies:

Very clearly the London one's are notably warmer then the Scottish one's.

 

Very clearly the London one's are notably warmer then the Scottish one's.

And in other breaking news: a bear had been found defecating in a large arboreal area.

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The relatively dry and warm ENS for Fort William (more so than London vs averages) and declining wind speeds suggests to me a North Atlantic blocking pattern and quite a few runs with Easterlies

 

That would be very welcome!

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Very clearly the London one's are notably warmer then the Scottish one's.

”vs averages”

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Highly encouraging signs on the latest GFS and also on UKMO for a significant settling down from the weekend onwards. Getting increasingly warm on the 12z GFS with a real burst of heat deep into FI.
Is summer about to return just in time for my first games of cricket this year?

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Highly encouraging signs on the latest GFS and also on UKMO for a significant settling down from the weekend onwards. Getting increasingly warm on the 12z GFS with a real burst of heat deep into FI.
Is summer about to return just in time for my first games of cricket this year?

Would be nice Moomin! The Test starts Wednesday - probably a couple of days too early!

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Highly encouraging signs on the latest GFS and also on UKMO for a significant settling down from the weekend onwards. Getting increasingly warm on the 12z GFS with a real burst of heat deep into FI.
Is summer about to return just in time for my first games of cricket this year?

This short running tide may indeed be turning 

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Agree it is worth keeping an eye on. However, on balance it still looks fairly average to me.

 

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In the more immediate future, the next 3 days look pretty poor in the south of England and Wales. A set of trailing fronts will move west to east across these parts and will give us dull, damp weather. It wouldn't surprise me if some parts got a real soaking out of this. Difficult to work out where the north and south boundaries of this weather is going to be from day to day but the rain will wiggle around and so most parts will get something.

What I hate most about this set up is that the near continent to the south of the warm front will be enjoying lots of lovely warm (almost hot weather) with Paris expecting 28C on Thursday. Reminds me of some of the summers of the last decade.

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This short running tide may indeed be turning 

I do hope so, due to dry spring hay crops have been delayed here and so far only done one field and it got rained on for two weeks.

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Am hoping for a reverse of the recent years’ breakdown just in time for School holidays.

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Looking more likely with the trend in the models July could well have a hot period

Am hoping for a reverse of the recent years’ breakdown just in time for School holidays.

 

I think the UK climate by default breaks down after August bank holiday

 

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Am hoping for a reverse of the recent years’ breakdown just in time for School holidays.

By that reckoning it should be good weather already in Scotland and NI until the 11th of August when the school holidays end (in Scotland). 

It is definitely an improving picture though (from the coming weekend).

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Contrary to yesterday, the 10-day summary has abandoned the idea of substantial rain for the S (and near continent) in week 2; now looking dry and definitely warmer ithen. 

Jetstream continuing across the UK frm W or NW for this week (to Fri 10th) then breaking up into loops and fragments mostly away from the UK before a major loop forms a cut-off low in the SW approaches Sun 19th continuing to affect the S in the following few days.

GFS - once the current LP (ex-Edouard) is out of the way on Fri 10th, HP settles over or close to the UK until Sun 19th when LP, taking its cue from the jetstream forms off SW Ireland and slowly trundles across the S coast to Thu 23rd

GEFS - For England and Wales, average temps with a little rain for the next 2 or 3 days (though MetO charts suggest much more rain in a belt starting near the Mersey and working down to the Thames) then dry and cool working back to normal or a little above around Wed 15th and staying there. Also from Wed 15th, some irregular but large quantities of rain in some runs. (Plymouth very dry but Liverpool has some spectacular totals)

Scotland similar though cool rather than average at first. 

ECM - repeats GFS though some suggestion that LP to the SW may develop sooner i.e. around Fri 17th

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Contrary to yesterday, the 10-day summary has abandoned the idea of substantial rain for the S (and near continent) in week 2; now looking dry and definitely warmer ithen.

...

That's rather a disappointment for my back yard. We still need loads more rain here. (See my EOM report in the June Precipitation thread.)

 

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 ... as temps are 18-21 down here it's sometimes hard to remember it can be very different weather outside of my back yard

That is a very wise observation, that we all need to take note of.

 

 And in other breaking news: a bear had been found defecating in a large arboreal area.

              (Actually, shouldn't that be 'an ursine creature'?)

 

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* See note in the Hurricane thread for the short-lived Dolly being missed; the current storm heading into the Atlantic is indeed Edouard.

Oh, that's a shame.  With reference to the earlier post on this name, I had already thought of several jokes, one of which was 'Parton me, did you say its name was Dolly?'

OK, I'll get my coat.  I just thought I'd make up for being away for a couple of weeks....

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The huge High Pressure in the Atlantic is really struggling to get properly going, being constantly squeezed by those pesky lows N.Atlantic.

GFS 06z does look promising and the 12z just struggling a wee bit. I do notice that by next Tuesday the big High over the North Pole weakens away, maybe helping the situation to our High getting better established? I cannot see any large High Pressure over NW Russia which I believe also has an effect with our weather. A link up of the Azores H with the Scandi H making a huge un-moveable High pressure system over us would be great for the rest of the summer months.

So far this is the worst start to July since 2012 and 2007 in my parts. Although currently it more reminds me of July 2007, especially the low heavy grey clouds and the darkness associated. Still keeping touching lots of wood for the Summer to kick off properly.

Improving signs for a warm up and associated dry spell incoming:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Given the dry-looking medium range outlook, I think it is a case of hoping that forecast 20-25 mm of rain for Kent tomorrow and into Thurs AM does come off in order to at least bring some green back to my still dead-as-a-doornail lawn. 

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