On the GEFS cumulative rainfall for next two weeks IMBY has dropped to the 5-20mm range and temps not too shabby. Looks OK - for now.

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Just goes to show how useless the GEFS ensembles are sometimes. The whole suite has shifted again and now look largely warmish and settled for the south.

0Z operational has quite a toasty plume in 9 or 10 days time too.

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Just goes to show how useless the GEFS ensembles are sometimes. The whole suite has shifted again and now look largely warmish and settled for the south.

0Z operational has quite a toasty plume in 9 or 10 days time too.

Yes, it’s worth remembering that the GFS had us playing ping pong with that Greeny low for four days straight as recently as two days ago. It has been something of a backtrack. 

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 NW/SE split easing but still there. Some hot weather over Spain & France making its way north but not quite getting to UK by end of week 2. Still very dry for the south throughout.

In detail GFS shows generally zonal weather with HP over the S of England and LP to the N of Scotland, occasionally interrupted by shallow troughs dipping further S (Wed 15th N Sea, Tue 21st crossing W to E, Sat 25th to SW). Some extra warmth in advance of the troughs as winds swing to the S.

GEFS temps show mean of runs close to average from Tue 14th but individual runs increasingly divergent (the op is one of the most optimistic) Not much rain about - you have to go as far N as Inverness to find a regular prediction of significant rain.

ECM similar to GFS but the shallow troughs of the latter are less evident (and indeed weaker than its own forecast yesterday); and the 'Tue 21st trough' is there, but a day earlier on Mon.

For the south (where I live) pleasant and usable summer weather, and the only worry is how to keep the garden going.

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I should line up some pretty maids all in a row if I were you!

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Another mediocre week ahead (best for the South and SW) followed by a potential heat plume late next weekend but with a potentially exposive ending a couple of days later... typical three fine days followed by a thunderstorm stuff.

The forecast cool nights this week will be welcomed.

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ECM good up to 192. But I’m now needing to refocus my model watching for an upcoming holiday to Scotland (assuming Nicola doesn’t close the border). Interesting watching the models from a Scottish point of view as I’m looking for different things. No longer is zonal flow and warm air in the SE enough.

Depending on exactly where you are going in Scotland, you might need to take the midge repellant and/or a midge hood.  At this time of year in the Highlands the wee beasties are ferocious and come mob-handed.

 

I would bank the latest runs as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. Pleasantly dry and warm with plenty of sunshine but never getting too silly hot by day and yet comfortably cool by night for the next week or so. What's not to like about it? 

Totally agree.  But maybe you'd like a bit of rain occasionally to water your lawn?

 

And on the models ... looks as though it should be nice.

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GFS throws in the towel and brings in a scorcher for the south by next weekend.

Massive victory for Exeter if it verifies.

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GFS throws in the towel and brings in a scorcher for the south by next weekend.

Massive victory for Exeter if it verifies.

If by Exeter you mean the Met Office than I suggest you check their latest long ranger. It isn't exactly inspiring. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1233256#post1233256

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If by Exeter you mean the Met Office than I suggest you check their latest long ranger. It isn't exactly inspiring. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1233256#post1233256

Looks pretty good to me in the south.

Worse in the NW but that’s standard in summer. 

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This evenings runs:

ECM: variable but generally high pressure. Shades of late July 2014.
GFS: short lived heatwave then fairly zonal but OKish. 2005esque
GEM: hot - late July 2019
UKMO: Similar to ECM

Looking reasonable but still quite a lot of scatter.

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BBC last night saying that TS Fay although now degraded over Canada is interacting with the jetstream and thus introducing a deal of uncertainty into downstream weather in the UK. Jetstream forecast as of now is for it to run across the UK until Tue 21st, often in short sections and with a brief gap Wed/Thu 15th/16th,then developing a persistent southern streak across France to Tue 28th plus occasional northerly bursts. 

GFS 0z sort of zonal but with the westerly flow interrupted at time as ridge of HP to Greenland allows LP to dive southwards e.g. Mon 20th off Shetland moving to Norway, Tue 28th over Holland

GEFS temps  close to seasonal norm through to Tue 28th with less scatter than yesterday, perhaps a little rain in the S at the end of the run (as always, it keeps getting put off), better chance of rain further N from ca Mon 20th and quite persistent in N Scotland.

ECM also zonal-ish but with more of a SW than a W cast and a definite HP centre Wed 22nd with broad area of LP over all of W Europe then.(GFS restricts it to Baltic)

As noted above GEM takes i a stage further than ECM with UK under ridge of HP and LP persistent across W Europe.

I don't see good agreement between the various models!

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Very good ECM again this evening with very warm weather by the weekend an d 18C uppers a week on  Tuesday in the far SE for the south as high pressure asserts control after midweek.

GEM not far behind, also looking fine and settled.

UKMO poised well with 12C uppers by Saturday, similar to ECM's 850s at that time.

GFS ensembles backing a warm up with pressure around the 1020mb mark sustained with the operation a huge outlier in 850s by the end of next weekend.

Pretty encouraging output this evening, especially the further south you are (naturally) 

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Very good ECM again this evening with very warm weather by the weekend an d 18C uppers a week on  Tuesday in the far SE for the south as high pressure asserts control after midweek.

GEM not far behind, also looking fine and settled.

UKMO poised well with 12C uppers by Saturday, similar to ECM's 850s at that time.

GFS ensembles backing a warm up with pressure around the 1020mb mark sustained with the operation a huge outlier in 850s by the end of next weekend.

Pretty encouraging output this evening, especially the further south you are (naturally) 

Yes, a decent second half of the month with some warmth to be had, appears like it could be  on the cards for many.

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Very good ECM again this evening with very warm weather by the weekend an d 18C uppers a week on  Tuesday in the far SE for the south as high pressure asserts control after midweek.

GEM not far behind, also looking fine and settled.

UKMO poised well with 12C uppers by Saturday, similar to ECM's 850s at that time.

GFS ensembles backing a warm up with pressure around the 1020mb mark sustained with the operation a huge outlier in 850s by the end of next weekend.

Pretty encouraging output this evening, especially the further south you are (naturally) 

 

Looks a lovely outlook for the south as the children break up for the school holidays. Nice sunny warm days and bearable nights, just lovely English summer weather! 

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No heatwave but it looks like a largely decent outlook away from the W/NW of Scotland. Encouraging as we move into the second or third week of the school holidays after a disapppoitning start.

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The fly in the ointment for ECM is that high pressure slackens off after 144 which indicates more unsettled weather. I'm not convinced it will get especially toasty but I'm sure it will still feel more summer like than recently.

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For the fourth run in a row GFS op is an outlier this weekend with a cool down and northerly pinhole while the other members keep things warm.

UKMO showing some signs of following GFS op but other models not having it.

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GFS and GEFS both refusing to get excited about the coming weekend. My view of the ECM is that it's not so different -but the BBC looking hot for Sunday especially, going for 27C along the South Coast. Bournemouth, here we come again!

In detail GFS is holding the HP back to the SW with a ridge just about reaching the UK most days, sometimes a bit further over us, sometimes less, but often the westerlies on its northern edge turn as they reach Scotland and become northerly down the east coast. Slack LP over France for much of the time. A brief but general drop in pressure Sat 25th after which the ridge resumes and pushes further east.

GEFS a little warmer around Sat/Sun 18th/19th esp in the W after which a long spell of mean temp at or slightly below seasonal norm, with op and control both on the cool side. Not much rain anywhere.

ECM similar to GFS but some rather warm air over France may just fringe the S coast next weekend.

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GFS seems to have flipped massively today, not that I really looked at the models yesterday but I was expecting a warm and settled spell, which seems to have vanished now!

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