GFS seems insistent on digging in low pressures and turning zonal at the first opportunity. It’s been consistently out of line with the others on this.

I have to say it does seem to have won the battle a couple of times with glorious high pressure spells disappearing off the charts and being replaced by muck. Even in this spell the GFS answer has ended up winning some skirmishes. Hopefully its luck will change this time.

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Looks like this evening’s GEM has taken a look at GFS and liked what it saw.

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Yes the settled warm charts too often get down graded this summer. The average summer for the South and poor summer for the North looks set to continue.

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Bit of a snoozefest from the GEFS. Not terrible but very average.

 

 

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Even worse up North verging on poor. 

 

 

 

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So all eyes on ECM, and...

it’s OKish

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So all eyes on ECM, and...

it’s OKish

 

Yes decent ECM out to day 9 never really gets unsettled for the South at least.

 

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Met Office seasonal mean been updated: - Takes us into start of the winter

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

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Jetstream coming and going in short bursts across the UK  for a week or so, but a more definite and stronger trend across or close to S of UK from Fri 24th for the week thereafter. That promises a continued unsettled spell, damp and cool from the Atlantic

GFS has won the immediate battle with ECM to be the form horse with HP reaching towards the UK but not quite enough to stop W/NW influence. This pattern persists to about Fri 24th with some promising days mixed with collapses. Then a general drop in pressure with LP established over UK by Tue 28th, pushing the ridge of HP south so that France gets the sort of weak HP that we' currently have

GEFS A little warmth around Sat 18th, but after that fairly good agreement on temps a little below seasonal norm throughout. Not much rain, and that mostly later on (after Mon 27th) and towards the N.

ECM has similar pattern to GFS but with pressure somewhat higher and thus better chances for good weather in the south

FAX and BBC have a trailing front which could spoil any HP by importing cloud from the Atlantic rather unpredictably.

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GFS goes for a large-scale trough parking itself over us by the last week of the month. Disappointing.

The ensembles have been particularly useless - several times there has been tight agreement on a particular scenario for a week or 10 days, only for the entire set to crash a run or two later.

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The EFFIS Long-term monthly forecast of temperature and rainfall anomalies look very disappointing for the rest of July and August. lets hope it is incorrect

Some dreadful long range output on offer at present, very unseasonal indeed

Some dreadful long range output on offer at present, very unseasonal indeed

Also some decent long range output, and in the reliable, pretty decent.

Clearly no heatwave, but decent British summer weather for many in the mid range at least.

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Also some decent long range output, and in the reliable, pretty decent.

Clearly no heatwave, but decent British summer weather for many in the mid range at least.

 

indeed, but those maps are too low-resolution to show the tiny but deep dartboard low permanently stationed over the Vale of Belvoir, where it resides from April to October. 

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It's all very unremarkable some warmth ,some cooler days fairly dry all very boring tbh. Hopefully a heatwave is round the corner but zero sign at the moment.

 

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Quite an 80's feeling summer at the moment. No heatwaves but certainly no wash out with nights generally cool enough to sleep through comfortably.

A fairly useable period of weather coming up.

I suspect there will be many days where early morning sunshine falls prey to convective infill, mainly dry though.

Here in the far SE I'm hopeful that the offshore NW'ly will bring some of the warmest temperatures on offer throughout the UK.

 

 

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I'm perfectly happy without the heat and humidity personally. Low to mid 20s will do very nicely, with a little but not too much rain accompanying it.

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12z ECM / ENS look poor to me in the longer term.

 

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I'm perfectly happy without the heat and humidity personally. Low to mid 20s will do very nicely, with a little but not too much rain accompanying it.

 

Yup. Off on a bike tour from Monday for a few days. 

Looks just about perfect down here for cycling. 

 

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indeed, but those maps are too low-resolution to show the tiny but deep dartboard low permanently stationed over the Vale of Belvoir, where it resides from April to October. 

charts please ? 😉