You should have mentioned that before. 

 

Well, that's the general outlook to my mind – and fairly standard for a UK summer. 

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A fairly standard summer would have the same anomalies in the NW and SE otherwise it would not be fairly standard.

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The big High through the past few model runs has been put under lots of pressure and the ridging seems to be getting weaker.

June rainfall here 116mm

July so far 18mm

6 out of 8 days of rain in July , a measly 17 hours of sunshine this month

As far as GFS is concerned the optimism of yesterday may have been a flash in the pan. The unsettled cluster has now taken over to dominate the GEFS ensemble for the second half of the run, with the main cluster a good 6-7C below average (at 850mb) by the end. Not what I want to see and also not what those who wrote the Met O and BBC long-rangers saw happening :(

 

The 12Z yesterday had very tight clustering all the way out to the 18th: 

 

Whereas the 6Z today has far greater scatter much earlier on:

 

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GFS 12z now showing a changeable or unsettled picture for most of the UK next week. Even the south looks mediocre. https://t.co/2S81YQxzn2 pic.twitter.com/pGid5BMun7

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 8, 2020

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N & W Europe still persistently below seasonal norm but continuing to show 'jam tomorrow' http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Continuing dry in the S, damp in the N esp NW.

GFS increasingly downplays strong development of HP - just a broad area across the S for next week with LP never far away towards Iceland. On Mon 20th HP collapses and LP moves in 990 mb N Ireland and sticks around to Wed 22nd before the previous pattern resumes.

GEFS line charts show cool, recovering to normal by Wed 15th and staying there to end of run though op and control are among the cooler options from Tue 21st. Some rain about from Wed 15th (a couple of days earlier in N England & Scotland) with best chances around Tue 21st. (esp Scotland)

ECM more positive for fine weather at first, as yesterday holding the LP further N than GFS does, but signs of an earlier breakdown with trough approaching from the NW Fri 17th

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Jetstream forecast has altered somewhat since I last looked, Although it's dying away over the UK at the moment, it begins to revive Tu 14th and from Fri 17th is more or less continuous across the UK for 10 days with a tendency to be further S as time goes on. No sign of the loops and cut-offs that were there a few days ago.

GFS is basically zonal. HP to the S and depressions to the N throughout. LP centres making a close approach to the NW on Wed 22nd and even further S on Sun 26th.

GEFS temps - good agreement on rising to normal by Wed 15th after which although the mean of runs hits the seasonal norm, that's not very meaningful as the scatter becomes extreme even control and op going in different directions. Dry weather continues in the S (drought even for central S England) but rain continuing intermittently in Scotland,  perhaps a little rain in 2 weeks' time for the S at which time the Scotland can be confident of getting rain.

ECM agrees with GFS but does show a trough over the N Sea briefly on Wed 15th

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The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

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The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

It's been a summer or outliers. It's often ended up, at least for here, mediocre although it has been notable for how windy it's been recently.

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The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

 

It has some support from the general trend though Moomin. 

 

And it is not without support from the other models, albeit a more moderate warming up rather than a hot blast! 

 

Notably GFS has backtracked towards the much preferable UKM. 

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After the delightful Spring, this summer has turned out to be turd-tastic here. Truly dreadful, typical of yet another UK season being unseasonal (yes there are a few weeks left blah blah blah).

The ECM was so good this morning, I feared it would be an outlier. It's not just an outlier, but it's an off the scale outlier. So disappointing that these outliers seem to be a regular issue this summer so far.

This post feels very misleading... an 'off the scale' outlier is only applicable for the 10th day, before which it's comfortably within the spread. In fact, at the cool end for Tue-Wed which suggests that the weak low may not dive down quite so sharply.

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Signs of high pressure edging towards the UK from the GFS, GEM and so far the UKMO at around 144 hours. Will it hold it to offer us a fine weekend (18th/ 19th July) or will it be effortlessly eroded from the NW ahead of another 3 to 4 day spell of relatively cool WNW'ly's ?

Perception of summer 2020 is rapidly going down the pan. It needs to sort itself out .....and soon ! 

GEM 144

UKMO 144

GFS 144

 

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Does feel like an upgrade day. Last 2 days were miserable for model watching. Perhaps the darkest hour is just before the dawn.

Weather here’s still cold and autumnal mind.

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Does feel like an upgrade day. Last 2 days were miserable for model watching. Perhaps the darkest hour is just before the dawn.

Weather here’s still cold and autumnal mind.

Yes that breeze was rather fresh and un-July like. Nice to actually feel the summer sun's warmth though! 

Good to see the output trending upwards again after a dodgy few days. Perhaps the models are latching better to the improving AAM?

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Yes, the 12z ECM looks encouraging so far too.

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ECM good up to 192. But I’m now needing to refocus my model watching for an upcoming holiday to Scotland (assuming Nicola doesn’t close the border). Interesting watching the models from a Scottish point of view as I’m looking for different things. No longer is zonal flow and warm air in the SE enough.

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Output looking good.

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I would bank the latest runs as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. Pleasantly dry and warm with plenty of sunshine but never getting too silly hot by day and yet comfortably cool by night for the next week or so. What's not to like about it? 

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I would bank the latest runs as far as my neck of the woods is concerned. Pleasantly dry and warm with plenty of sunshine but never getting too silly hot by day and yet comfortably cool by night for the next week or so. What's not to like about it? 

Yes, lovely English summer weather. Perfick!

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