Met Office Hadley         10.6c.       Anomaly       3.3c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      10.11c      Anomaly       2.09c

Netweather                   10.79c      Anomaly       2.7c

Peasedown St John     10.93c      Anomaly       2.67c.

The provisional CET's almost as high as my local mean (11.24°C) and the anomaly is even larger (+2.42°C here). 

Where will it finish, then?

Well... the GFS 06z provided a relatively warm scenario, giving me a rough final CET estimate of 10.9°C which would be exceptionally high, while the GFS 12z has provided a much cooler scenario but still doesn't take the final estimate very far down: 10.4°C.

My estimate for this month (which felt bold at the time!) was 9.87°C... so I'd be alright with the cooler solution, despite the poorer weather entailed - provided things soon improved in May!

Anyone else feel like sharing their estimate? Don't be shy and please don't lie .

I do hope GW is okay, we've never been this far into the month without any updates from him .

I went stupidly low at 9.4 ish IIRC.  This month is a write off for me.

The provisional CET's almost as high as my local mean (11.24°C) and the anomaly is even larger (+2.42°C here). 

Where will it finish, then?

Well... the GFS 06z provided a relatively warm scenario, giving me a rough final CET estimate of 10.9°C which would be exceptionally high, while the GFS 12z has provided a much cooler scenario but still doesn't take the final estimate very far down: 10.4°C.

My estimate for this month (which felt bold at the time!) was 9.87°C... so I'd be alright with the cooler solution, despite the poorer weather entailed - provided things soon improved in May!

 

Anyone else feel like sharing their estimate? Don't be shy and please don't lie .

I do hope GW is okay, we've never been this far into the month without any updates from him .

I think I went 9.99c

Agree about GW. Even when he's late he usually manages a quick apology post with an estimate of when we can expect the results.

I went even lower at 8.9c. 

I don’t mind if it ends way above though now, cos I’m stuffed anyway and I’m enjoying the higher temps!  

Hoping GW’s absence is due to him being busy!  But missing him!  

Met Office Hadley        10.6c.        Anomaly        3.2c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     10.6c         Anomaly        2.04c

Netweather                  10.77c       Anomaly        2.68c   

Peasedown St John    10.28c       Anomaly        2.54c.

Nowhere near my prediction of 7.c.   Nowhere near my average of 8.26c.    

I went even lower at 8.9c. 

I don’t mind if it ends way above though now, cos I’m stuffed anyway and I’m enjoying the higher temps!  

Hoping GW’s absence is due to him being busy!  But missing him!  

9.22 for me, still comfortably above the 1981-2010 average and seemed a reasonable prediction at the time (don't they always?) but obviously whatever happens this month I will be well off the pace.

9.45 from me which is really quite a warm April but it's going to be miles out!

I went for 10.2c this month. Can't remember why I went so high, but it still looks too low.

I went for 9.8C. 

I see GW posted yesterday about his recent rainfall total. Not sure why he's not posting in the CET threads?

Met Office Hadley           10.6c.        Anomaly      3.1c. Provisional   to 20th

Metcheck                        10.7c         Anomaly      2.05c

Netweather                     10.76c       Anomaly      2.67c

Peasedown St John      10.92c        Anomaly      2.66c.   

I went for 9.8C. 

I see GW posted yesterday about his recent rainfall total. Not sure why he's not posting in the CET threads?

I'll add that my PM with the April guess hasn't been opened by him yet.

 I'll add that my PM with the April guess hasn't been opened by him yet.

Perhaps its the end of the road for the competition ?

GW has dedicated a lot of time and put in a lot of effort over the years.

I would fully understand and support him if he decides to call it a day. 

Perhaps we have a volunteer to do a basic chart for the competition.  I have not got the know-how to do so.

Met Office Hadley         10.6c       Anomaly        3.1c Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      10.11c     Anomaly        2.09c

Netweather                   10.81c     Anomaly        2.72c

Pesededown St John   10.92c     Anomaly        2.66c. 

 

Perhaps its the end of the road for the competition ?

GW has dedicated a lot of time and put in a lot of effort over the years.

I would fully understand and support him if he decides to call it a day. 

 

Thanks for the recollections everyone. It appears from these examples that the spread of CET predictions was skewed by the chilly start to the month. The opening day here was nearly 5°C colder than average! It took until the end of the first week for a recovery to average and then the first extraordinary warm spell occurred, which well-exceeded what had been modelled in advance.

So, no reason for those who went low 9s or even somewhere in the 8s to question their judgement - at the time it looked as plausible as anything.

Good to see that GW is active, at least. The silence here does seem a little odd, I must admit... .