Met Office Hadley           10.8c.       Anomaly        2.9c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                        10.36c      Anomaly        2.34c

Netweather                     10.97c      Anomaly        2.88c

Peasedown St John       11.35c      Anomaly       3.09c. 

Looks like this year will come in in 3rd or 4th place, after the usual jiggling has been done.

Send your May predictions to GW’s inbox as usual.  

PLEASE SEE BELOW

Hi sorry everyone I have not got round to keeping things up to date this month. Too many other things to focus on. I will get everything up to date, including April results, this weekend. My inbox has plenty of space so you can post you predictions as usual.

It's saying something how well this month has shrugged off a distinctly cool finish.

Glad to hear GW's alright, was beginning to wonder for a while there!

Sending my May estimate now... it was a very tricky one to reason-out .

Hi sorry everyone I have not got round to keeping things up to date this month. Too many other things to focus on. I will get everything up to date, including April results, this weekend. My inbox has plenty of space so you can post you predictions as usual.

So glad you’re OK.  Hope you didn’t mind me muscling in.  Everybody ignore my posts as it’s business as usual!  
Send PM with May predictions to GW!  

10.42C is final result for April

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

10.42C is final result for April

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

A useful adjustment down means that I was 'only' 1.54c out (too low) for April! I've completely sabotaged myself this year with a cold bias - materially too low every month so far. Now as for May......PM incoming GW, and great to see you back.

 

 

A useful adjustment down means that I was 'only' 1.54c out (too low) for April! I've completely sabotaged myself this year with a cold bias - materially too low every month so far. Now as for May......PM incoming GW, and great to see you back.

Same here with regards to April's 10.42C

I went 2.4C too low which when combined for my other abysmal efforts for 2020 so far means I have already exceeded the cumulative error which won the table in 2019 (5.88C) by getting over 6C error in just 4 months

I'll start preparing my wall space for the wooden spoon

Well... the GFS 06z provided a relatively warm scenario, giving me a rough final CET estimate of 10.9°C which would be exceptionally high, while the GFS 12z has provided a much cooler scenario but still doesn't take the final estimate very far down: 10.4°C.

Hey look, GFS actually predicted something with high accuracy at over 10 days range (this was back on 18th April)!

A 0.55°C error for me this month. Just outside what I'd usually consider a great result - but given the exceptional nature of the month, I could be more lenient in my analysis this time...!

I've gone very near average for May. Not because I expect a boring month though - far from it, large variations cancelling out! Always a lower confidence estimation to make. Can only hope for the best!

Here are the charts for March - sorry very late. I will catch-up over the next couple of days.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Table 1

Table 2

Annual CET competition - March update

Here is the table for March. Darren S remains in the lead. Norseman moves up to second and Whether Idle to third.

Link to full sized table

Cheers GW 

It's nice to be one with the 4th as tomorrow looms  .

Here are the list of predictions for April

Congratulations to splinter who was the closest with 10.2C.

I will try and post the April charts and league table tomorrow evening. Darren S will retain the lead.

TABLE

Cheers GW!  No problem with the delay.  Just glad you’re OK and very grateful to you for running this comp!  

Thanks for organising the competition GW. A nice surprise to win this month with the highest prediction. Interestingly I won in October with the lowest prediction, maybe going out on a limb is the way to go for me.

Here are the charts for April. This was the equal fifth warmest April on record.

We had one CET date record this month (in red).

The maximum CET was 3.4C about average (4th warmest on record) whereas the minimum CET was only 0.4C above average.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Table 1

Table 2

The first four months of 2020 have been the third warmest on record.

Warmest first four months of the year:

2007  7.80C
1990  7.53C
2020  7.45C
2014  7.44C
2002  7.35C

Spring CET so far

Chart

Annual CET competition - April update

Darren S retains his lead with Stormchaser now in second, just ahead of Jerry P in third. This month's winner splinter is up 10 to seventh.

TABLE

Tomorrow evening I will aim to post the May predictions and the May CET tracker.