Yes, here's hoping it's only matters of work keeping him away.

I see GFS has reverted to placing highs in relatively warm positions relative to the UK as of yesterday's 18z and now today's 00z. Quite the turnaround after a succession of runs featuring Greenland or mid-Atlantic highs bringing a big contrast in temperatures for the final third of the month.

Plugging in the numbers from the 00z gives me a CET estimate of 10.4°C to 14th and an astonishing 11.2°C to 24th. I believe that'd put 2020 nearly on par with 2011, the warmest April on record.

Met Office Hadley         10.0c        Anomaly     3.6c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                      9.78c        Anomaly     1.76c

Netweather                   10.33c      Anomaly     2.24c

Peasedown St John    9.76c         Anomaly     1.5c.   

Met Office Hadley         10.4c        Anomaly       3.8c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       10.03c     Anomaly        2.01c

Netweather                    10.65c     Anomaly        2.56c

Peasedown St John      10.76c.     Anomaly        2.50c.      

Yes, here's hoping it's only matters of work keeping him away.

I see GFS has reverted to placing highs in relatively warm positions relative to the UK as of yesterday's 18z and now today's 00z. Quite the turnaround after a succession of runs featuring Greenland or mid-Atlantic highs bringing a big contrast in temperatures for the final third of the month.

Plugging in the numbers from the 00z gives me a CET estimate of 10.4°C to 14th and an astonishing 11.2°C to 24th. I believe that'd put 2020 nearly on par with 2011, the warmest April on record.

11.2 would be exactly on par with April 2007. April 2011 had a final CET of 11.7.

*EDIT: I got it wrong as well. The April 2011 CET was 11.8, not 11.7.

Met Office Hadley          10.8c.       Anomaly        4.2c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       1.045c      Anomaly         2.43c

Netweather                    11.03c      Anomaly         2.94c

Peasedown St John       10.88c      Anomaly       2.62c.  

We might crack 12.0C this April.

We might crack 12.0C this April.

 

Met Office Hadley          11.2c        Anomaly      4.5c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                       10.85c      Anomaly      2.85c

Netweather                    11.43c      Anomaly      3.34c

Peasedown St John      11.48c      Anomaly       3.22c.    

The GFS 12z is sufficiently cool Fri-Sun to get the CET below 10°C by 20th - but it's among the coldest outcomes of GEFS and lacks support from ECM and GEM. In fact, ECM has conditions on the warm side - not far off what we've had in the past few days!

For entertainment's sake, let's imagine if 20th-28th saw the extreme high-latitude blocking to the northwest that the GFS 12z then predicts. 

CET falls from ~9.7°C on 20th to below 9.0°C by 24th, ending up ~8.7°C on 28th.

An extraordinary drop, yet still slightly above average as of that last day of the run - testament to just how warm the opening third has been.

Met Ofice Hadley          11.4c        Anomaly       4.7c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                      10.94c      Anomaly        2.92c

Netweather                   11.61c      Anomaly        3.52c

Peasedown St John    11.61c       Anomaly         3.52c. 

Met Office Hadley          11.2c       Anomaly      4.3c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                       10.54c     Anomaly      2.52c

Netweather                    11.32c     Anomaly      3.23c

Peasedown St John     11.34c       Anomaly      3.08c.

I see GW is active on the site again

I see GW is active on the site again

10.8°C to 14th, provisional. This is the first half of April, and just 0.3C below the LT May average.

Met Office Hadley           10.8c         Anomaly        3.8c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                        10.34c      Anomaly         2.32c

Netweather                     11.0c        Anomaly         2.91c

Peasedown St John       11.16c      Anomaly        3.24c.

Met Office Hadley         10.7c.       Anomaly        3.6c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                      10.27c      Anomaly        2.26c

Netweather                   10.93c      Anomaly        2.84c

Peasedown St John    10.76c       Anomaly        2.5c.  

Met Office Hadley          10.8c.       Anomaly       3.6c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                       10.39c      Anomaly       2.37c

Netweather                    10.99c      Anomaly       2.99c

Peasedown St John      10.86c      Anomaly       2.0c.    

Met Office Hadley           10.8c        Anomaly        3.5c. Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                        10.27c      Anomaly        2.25c

Netweather                     10.93c      Anomaly        2.84c

Peasedown St John       10.88c      Anomaly       2.66c.    

It’s still holding up well, although it’s been cooler today so it’s likely to take a small hit.  After today temps are looking good enough to hold it up there for at least the next week.