Jetstream starts off fragmented but mostly either north of UK or fading out before reaching us until Tue 2nd when the forecast resumes its dalliance with a major loop creating a cut-off low moving S from Ireland to Iberia. The main stream then resumes N of the UK but tending to run NW to SE down into the N Sea.
GFS shows HP over the UK to Sun 31st with warm air from the S. On Mon a significant LP develops NW of Ireland 990mb and runs S to Iberia by Sun 7th while HP re-establishes N behind it and moves over the UK.This HP does not persist and by Thu 11th slck LP covers the UK. The forecast for the first week of June thus matches the jetstream nicely but is quite different from yesterday! e.g. the cold spell at the end of yesterday's run is no longer there.
GEFS mean temps in the SE stay close to norm through to Thu 11th without too much scatter even later on (query: why isn't it picking up the warmth forecast in other models this week?) Dry to Wed 3rd, bits and pieces of rain thereafter. Scotland and the NW do manage some extra warmth this week and has a lot more uncertainty later; there is slightly more in the way of rain also starting earlier in Scotland Mon 1st.
ECM similar to GFS though the LP is less well defined at first.
Models may be in lockstep but still struggling with a consistent day-by-day pattern for more than a week ahead
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Chichester 12m asl