I’m not liking the way the models are trending at the moment. Looks like by this time next week we could be staring down the barrel of a big change. Plenty of time for that to change again though!

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I’m not liking the way the models are trending at the moment. Looks like by this time next week we could be staring down the barrel of a big change. Plenty of time for that to change again though!

Keep the faith Rob. I am. I am hoping that this flip that is starting to show up will be downgraded, because I too would fear the worst if it flips dramatically. Thankfully at the moment, the change is out in FI, and could well change again. I am greatly encouraged by the Met Office longer range which has jumped on board with unsettled, because they are nearly ALWAYS completely wrong.

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Ensemble mean stays close to average from June 3rd but at that point clustering occurs in both directions. Also noticeable are the rainfall spikes  which are small and diurnal related so indicates showers rather than prolonged rain

Ensemble mean stays close to average from June 3rd but at that point clustering occurs in both directions. Also noticeable are the rainfall spikes  which are small and diurnal related so indicates showers rather than prolonged rain

 Thank you Dave. Bit of a fuss kicked up in here tonight but this possible change is still in FI and we've had similar noise throughout May and by and large any cooler and unsettled spells have been transitory. More runs needed.

One plonker on Netweather writing off June based on the GFS alone 

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 Thank you Dave. Bit of a fuss kicked up in here tonight but this possible change is still in FI and we've had similar noise throughout May and by and large any cooler and unsettled spells have been transitory. More runs needed.

One plonker on Netweather writing off June based on the GFS alone 

Yes - It's around this time of year that some obsess about the "June Monsoon". I'll see where we are in a weeks time before getting over excited! 

 

Well according to my Collins weather guide, June is usually a drier month on average than either July or August (for London) so no basis in fact for the European Monsoon in these parts.

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Well according to my Collins weather guide, June is usually a drier month on average than either July or August (for London) so no basis in fact for the European Monsoon in these parts.

Down here May is the driest followed by July, and June sits in third place in front of August.

 

For London there is less of a margin between months but July is the driest of the 3 summer months by 0.6mm and August the wettest, with the February being the yearly driest month. 

Even in the blowtorch era the current spell of weather is remarkable. We're bound to see a change sooner or later. The question as ever is will it last. The signals for summer on the whole are quite promising. But 2018 was truly exceptional so we shouldn't benchmark against it.

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 showing warm especially this week and dry but with cool central Europe we are going to have to rely on S flow to keep this spell going - any shift to an easterly could change the outlook.

 GFS: Current HP moving slowly over to Norway and a weak E-ly replaces the very warm S-ly so the above is a possibility. By fri 5th LP has developed over Iberia (cf yesterday's models) and HP has moved from the Atlantic to NW Scotland and stays there more or less strongly to Fri 12th with N/NE-lies running down the N Sea. These vary from strong and cold initially (Fri 5th)to blocked and weak on Wed 10th

GEFS: still refusing to admit that temps this week will be above average in the S, though in the W and Scotland there is a bump; also a nationwide bump up in temp around Wed 3rd before a general drop to below seasonal norm on Fri 5th (again!) then a slow recovery over the following week. Irregular rainfall in small amounts from around Wed 3rd.

ECM: matches GFS to Wed 3rd but then rapidly develops an unusual-looking cold and deep LP over N Scotland 985 mb on Fri 5th (again again!), with cold winds for the whole country, not just N Sea coasts. This LP with cold weather sits over Cornwall 990 mb the next day.

All eyes on Friday week

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The pattern change still on for the 4th June to more unsettled and cooler.  Likely ECM over doing it somewhat hopefully anyway as it's a shocker

 

 

 

 

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There have been frequent enough signs in recent models of a switch to Northerlies and mid-Atlantic blocking in early June to think that may now be the form horse. Whatever, we continue to see a blocked pattern. Could be cool and dry, like June 1995, or 2007-like if this morning's revolting ECM is a guide. But that is still over a week away. Some warm weather to come.

June monsoon is an interesting one. It is definitely a feature of continental Western Europe, but as people say not of the UK. Contrast much of the South of England where May and June are two of the driest months of the year, with somewhere like Macon or Lyon in central France where the May and June rainfall averages nearly 100mm (much of it in thunderstorms under slow moving slack low pressure) and the two months are the wettest in the year.

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Even in the blowtorch era the current spell of weather is remarkable. We're bound to see a change sooner or later. The question as ever is will it last. The signals for summer on the whole are quite promising. But 2018 was truly exceptional so we shouldn't benchmark against it.

2018 was indeed an excellent summer overall, but for me, the poorer August prevented it from replacing 1995 as the best summer I can recall in my lifetime. The best weather two years ago came during the first six weeks of the summer, if one puts the excellent late spring weather that preceded it to the side. The difference in 1995 was that in that summer, the best and longest-lasting excellent weather came later in the summer rather than earlier on as happened in 2018.

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There have been frequent enough signs in recent models of a switch to Northerlies and mid-Atlantic blocking in early June to think that may now be the form horse. Whatever, we continue to see a blocked pattern. Could be cool and dry, like June 1995, or 2007-like if this morning's revolting ECM is a guide. But that is still over a week away. Some warm weather to come.

June monsoon is an interesting one. It is definitely a feature of continental Western Europe, but as people say not of the UK. Contrast much of the South of England where May and June are two of the driest months of the year, with somewhere like Macon or Lyon in central France where the May and June rainfall averages nearly 100mm (much of it in thunderstorms under slow moving slack low pressure) and the two months are the wettest in the year.

The term summer monsoon for northwest Europe is of course a tongue in cheek reference to the pattern change that often occurs in early summer across the UK There is an old weatherlore referenced by HH Lamb in his book 'The English Climate' (1964) which identifies 24th June - St John the Baptists Day.  The weatherlore states 'Before St Johns day we pray for rain - after it we get without praying' So clearly for many years the farming community in particular had noticed the dryness and settled weather associated with the higher pressure/easterlies we often notice in May/June followed by a deterioration in late June - just in time for the high summer period. Otherwise known as the 'return of the westerlies' While 'monsoon' is clearly an overstatement - in comparison to the real thing,  thinking back to the infamously wet summers of the 1952/56/57/58 and 1985/86 and 2007/08/09/12 etc to mention a mere few - you can see where the idea comes from.

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To highlight the post above April,May and June 2003 recorded 56 consecutive days without rainfall for here in west Cornwall. That all changed from mid June....

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To highlight the post above April,May and June 2003 recorded 56 consecutive days without rainfall for here in west Cornwall. That all changed from mid June....

Are you sure it was 2003?

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 showing warm especially this week and dry but with cool central Europe we are going to have to rely on S flow to keep this spell going - any shift to an easterly could change the outlook.

Interesting to see that the Moray Firth is forecast to be warmer than much of mainland Greece on average for the first week. 

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Are you sure it was 2003?

2003 was a very good summer

A lovely output for the next 7 days at least, ECM seems a bit far fetched this morning towards the later stages, but I expect it will become a bit cooler/more unsettled.
Anyway can't expect the dry and fine weather to continue all summer, some rain would be welcome for the gardens.

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A lovely output for the next 7 days at least, ECM seems a bit far fetched this morning towards the later stages, but I expect it will become a bit cooler/more unsettled.
Anyway can't expect the dry and fine weather to continue all summer, some rain would be welcome for the gardens.

Agreed. The ECM 00z op is rather extreme in its interpretation of the prospect of cooler and more unsettled conditions, but it does look likely in a more watered-down way. Like you say, any rain will be welcome for the gardens. It is all looking rather brown and dusty here.

I don't have any reservations about the summer weather at the moment.

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GEFS 12Z now showing a farily brief cooldown followed by a possible return to warmth.

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