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GEFS for the S has a little rain Thu 21st May followed by a brief drop in temp then most runs above seasonal norm from Tue 25th and dry. in fact much drier than yesterday's forecast. ...

Yes, I noticed that, much to my disappointment.

 

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Keep watching - the models aren't very stable at the moment! 

You're not wrong! Everything seems to have gone more chaotic at the moment, including the weather.

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GEFS for London now very dry for virtually the whole run.

ECM goes pretty warm again after the weekend too.

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10-day summary showing a NW/SE split for the next two weeks in both temp & rainfall. Some really warm air over N France which will no doubt drift up into the SE from time to time, and also dry in that area so no prospect of thundery stuff. The only significant forecast of rain is for NW Scotland.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

After Friday's brush with LP, GFS shows a strong rise of pressure from the Atlantic with 1025mb common through to Tue 2nd and source of air SW or W. For a few days after that the HP retreats to the W and allows cooler N-lies down the E flank i.e. over UK.

GEFS temps for the S showing more variation than yesterday - distinctly warm Wed 27th and Tue 2nd and closer to average before, between and after. Rather dry; a bit of rain in the next couple of days, chances of some more after Tue 2nd. Scotland showing same temp pattern but less pronounced, and chances of rain inconsistently from Wed 27th. For N England, split the difference!

FAX stil showing a more vigorous depression over the UK for this Fri, gales and/or strong winds lasting through to Sun

ECM similar to GFS up to Wed 27th after which (still yesterday's 12z at this point, may need editing) the HP is still there but weaker.

 

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It would seem that the Met Office prediction (a few weeks ago) of a wet May in the south of the UK is now appearing to be well off the mark. Thank goodness I didn't base my May CET prediction on that. Oh hold on a minute .....

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GFS 12z operational brings high pressure in for the first half of next week after a cooler weekend. Thereafter we have two stabs of a chilly northerly next weekend and into the week after (end of May into early June) with high pressure centred in the Atlantic.

Not a wet run but definitely more unsettled than we've been used to and not especially warm either (though usual FI caveats apply). Hopefully one for the bin 

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I’ll stick with the ECM, which keeps pressure above 1020mb down here for the duration, apart from a brief blip this Friday.

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Jetstream currently running across S England, but soon shifting to run across Scotland until Sat 30th when a loop enfolds the UK to generate our own cut-off low by Tue 2nd, which drifts SW to Biscay by Sat 6th at which time the main stream is across Norway.

From GFS, the current deep LP (970mb, unusual for May) moves up to Shetland and fills there by Sun 24th. Warm HP from SW for the following week but the cut-off low referred to above is over Cornwall 1010mb on Tue 2nd. (This feature wasn't showing yesterday). As this low moves away, HP establishes S of Iceland 1035mb Fri 5th with NE-lies setting in.

GEFS temps for S drop on Sun 24th then recover with mean of runs close to seasonal norm through to Sat 6th without too much scatter (no agreement on the warm spells forecast yesterday) Intermittent rain from Fri 29th with a just a few outliers showing big totals later (again, different from yesterday). Scotland & NI, a bigger scatter in temps, and intermittent rain throughout with quite a high chance of rain around Wed 27th. Liverpool on its own for big rainfall spikes in some runs on and after Mon 1st.

ECM like GFS to start with but HP next week is further S so more of a zonal flow, a trough over the UK developing on Fri 29th and the cut-off low is placed further E, over the N Sea Sat 30th

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Nice ECM this morning. Warming up nicely next week in the south, a little disturbance around Thursday but High pressure building again at the end.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 shows temps a little above average (but cold patch in E Europe like last year) and very dry except NW Scotland, for the next two weeks.

GFS: A blast from the current LP which moves off to the Norwegian Sea and fills by Sun 24th, to be replaced by HP from the SW lasting over the UK until Sat 30th before it regresses to the Atlantic allowing a sequence of depressions over Norway to feed a continuous set of N winds down the E half of of UK to Sat 6th  (specially vigorous on Fri 5th). No sign of  the cut-off low predicted yesterday for that time - this has also disappeared from the jetstream and ECM forecasts).

FAX shows a trailing front decaying slowly across the HP early next week so not wall-to-wall sunshine

GEFS: not much of interest, temps generally either side of norm on different runs, rather dry in S - in Scotland not a lot more rain but a bit of a spike Wed 27th.

ECM:  also keeps the HP going but over the S of UK so more of a westerly flow through next week, finally showing a depression approaching from the NW Mon 1st, HP still holding on over Norway unlike GFS. 

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GFS is showing a shift in the 'balance' at the turn of the month. High pressure in Western Europe retrogresses into the Atlantic allowing more of a northerly flow over the UK, and with low pressure over Iceland and Scandinavia it is also looking more unsettled generally in the UK. At the same time, pressure builds over Western Russia to draw warm air over much of Eastern Europe which will be very welcome in those parts given their cool spring.

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I wonder why we often seem to get pattern changes at month end.

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I wonder why we often seem to get pattern changes at month end.

Probably the "European Monsoon" trying to come into the equation.

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I wonder why we often seem to get pattern changes at month end.

To make our CET predictions more difficult!  

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High pressure for the foreseeable is the theme for tonight.

Plenty of warm and dry weather for a fair while to come. 

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Quite a dramatic reversal of fortune for W & E Europe; week 1 warm & cool respectively, week 2 cool and warm http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS keeps HP over the UK strongly until Sat 30th after which it's still there but less well defined. Its regression to the Atlantic noted yesterday is deferred until Wed 3rd after which the E of the UK is increasingly affected by N-lies on the W flank of a depression over Norway, especially at end-of-run Mon 8th.

GEFS for the S temps close to or a little above average (though the op run is a notably cool outlier later on), a minor dip around Tue 2nd with chances of rain greatest at that time but otherwise most runs mainly dry (but less so than yesterday, for later on). SW England v. dry, NW with best chances of rain. Scotland temps more variable with suggestions of something cooler around Wed 27th as well as Tue 2nd - and that cool op outlier is there too. Intermittent rain on random runs throughout, but nothing general.

ECM like GFS to Sat 30th when there's a brief incursion of a trough of LP but unlike GFS HP re-establishes itself strongly after, to Tue 2nd. Both GFS and ECM hint at a thundery low over Spain at that time.

Week 1, nailed on; week 2, watch this space! 

 

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Hot plumey  goodness from the ECM this morning.

30c on the cards in the south if its on the money next Friday, Saturday

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Hot plumey  goodness from the ECM this morning.

30c on the cards in the south if its on the money next Friday, Saturday

All looking fine and dandy again this morning. The High pressure fest goes on and on. Oh for a game of cricket!

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Jetstream generally running W-E around the Faeroes but with occasional loops developing; that on Sun 31st exaggerated enough to develop a cut-off low which spins off down ro Spain, and a hint of another one at end-of-run Tue 9th. So cut-offs making a re-appearance after being absent for a few days.

GFS has HP prominent all this week over the UK but with trough appearing over UK on Sun 31st between two HP centres; the trough moves southwards to be an ill-defined feature over France as the two HPs join forces & re-establish over Scotland. This scenario does a repeat on Tue 9th, much in line with jetstream if not a full-blown cut-off.

GEFS temps for the south rising to be a little above average through to about Thu 4th (more even than yesterday)after which too much scatter to be certain. No significant rain until Tue 2nd and even then only intermittently in different runs. N England more incidence of rain from a few days earlier but still not on every run. Scotland temp profile similar ( a bit warmer earlier on); best chance of rain around Sun 31st tapering off later.

ECM similar to GFS but places the trough on Sun 31st further west (i.e. off Ireland) which then does then develop into a low over Spain.

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Blowtorch feed shown by ECM this morning. Let's be honest. In this day and age you don't discount even if it is an outlier. The opposite to winter Beasts.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=00&charthour=96&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na-region&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C 

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Blowtorch feed shown by ECM this morning. Let's be honest. In this day and age you don't discount even if it is an outlier. The opposite to winter Beasts.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=00&charthour=96&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na-region&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Even GFS, which spoils things in the midterm, still serves up quite a decent plume (16C at 850mb) towards the end of the 0Z run. 

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