I can't help but think that after such a dry spring we're in for a washout summer. Hope I'm wrong though.

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I can't help but think that after such a dry spring we're in for a washout summer. Hope I'm wrong though.

Not so sure about that, but I would say its Game Over for hopes of a hot spell to end May now. This morning's ECM was an outlier, and all other models are now significantly trending cooler and much more unsettled.

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Not so sure about that, but I would say its Game Over for hopes of a hot spell to end May now. This morning's ECM was an outlier, and all other models are now significantly trending cooler and much more unsettled.

I think that's a bit OTT. I dont think end of May is settled yet, hench the different options. As for much more unsettled - I am not seeing that either. 

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https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2020051506/graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif 

12Z on the way out already so no doubt a different roll of the dice.

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Mind-addling drugs could not mess with a brain more than model watching.

 

Oh, they really can

 

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12z so far GEM and UKMO good, GFS and ICON crap. 

 

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12z so far GEM and UKMO good, GFS and ICON crap. 

 

GFS 12z op is a significant outlier, check out the MSLP for confirmation of that. 

Regardless of what next weekend has in store, we have a nice warm spell to enjoy next week 

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General agreement between models for dry, sunny and warm for the coming week with HP over France/S England. The fun starts on Fri 22nd when GFS, having given up on a S-ly tracking LP, sends it to NW Scotland instead. ECM (still yesterday's output) agrees but keeps it a bit further out in the Atlantic, as does BBC WFTWA, the latter admitting some uncertainty as to its prediction. EDIT Today's ECM is now the one to bring a local LP in, crossing Scotland on Sat 23rd, and then compensates by building a large HP from the SW Tue 26th

On from there (GFS) the HP is suppressed for a bit with W-lies but re-asserts itself Thu 28th and we finish up with a ridge Sun 31st squeezed from the N (an Atlantic LP) and the S (something thundery-looking over France).

GEFS as you would expect from the above, for the S up to 5C above normal for this week and dry, dipping on Fri 22nd to a mean value about normal but with quite a lot of variation and intermittent rain from then on. Scotland & NI get the warm spell but temps after that tend to be a little below normal, with definite rain around the 21st and more generally for the rest of the period.

 

 

Spare a thought for Norway, only just across the N Sea, and according to GFS the wrong side of the 552 dam line for all this time, temps 6C below normal - and some of that comes uncomfortably close to the E coast on Wed 27th. Big patch of cold air in E Europe too.

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GFS 12z op is a significant outlier, check out the MSLP for confirmation of that. 

Regardless of what next weekend has in store, we have a nice warm spell to enjoy next week 

 

Yes should have said a v good 5 or 6 days then a breakdown. I reckon we could squeeze a 28c somewhere. 

Ecm builds a massive high pressure in its later stages this morning hopefully its onto something.

 

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GFS has high pressure around the UK through to Sat 30th ; occasionally pushed S by depressions brushing the NW Fri 23rd & Tue 26th but renewing from the SW. A more general drop in pressure over the UK Sun 31st - Tue 2nd but still with winds from the S.

GEFS warm to Fri 23rd then mean of runs close to seasonal norm but with more scatter than yesterday, majority on the cool side balanced by some extremely warm ones. Drier in the S throughout to Tue 2nd than previously forecast, chance of a little rain around the 22nd. A greater incidence of rain the further N you go, and continual for N Scotland & NI.

ECM similar but emphasises the LP on Fri 23rd with some cool NW-lies in its wake; and then leaves out that on Tue 26th altogether with strong rise in pressure

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 10-day summary indicates the usual NW/SE split in temp, but the rainfall pattern for week 2 is more interesting, with most of the rain inland rather than on the coasts - convective showers perhaps?

GFS pressure pattern is for HP over the S of the UK with troughs brushing the NW (esp Fri 22nd) until Wed 27th, when pressure drops over the UK generally and a well-defined depression develops over the western approaches Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd 

ECM similar at first but stronger HP for the week of Mon 25th and showng no sign of declining by end of run Wed 27th

GEFS changed a bit since yesterday; for the S warm until Sat 23rd, a bit of a dip with some rain; warm and dry again until Sat 30th then repeat cooler and rain; then warmer again. Scotland & N England temps after the 23rd stay closer to normal (with the usual scatter) and rain throughout that week with some runs showing big totals. The Midlands have the temp pattern of the S but also the large rainfall spikes.

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 10-day summary indicates the usual NW/SE split in temp, but the rainfall pattern for week 2 is more interesting, with most of the rain inland rather than on the coasts - convective showers perhaps?

GFS pressure pattern is for HP over the S of the UK with troughs brushing the NW (esp Fri 22nd) until Wed 27th, when pressure drops over the UK generally and a well-defined depression develops over the western approaches Tue/Wed 2nd/3rd 

ECM similar at first but stronger HP for the week of Mon 25th and showng no sign of declining by end of run Wed 27th

GEFS changed a bit since yesterday; for the S warm until Sat 23rd, a bit of a dip with some rain; warm and dry again until Sat 30th then repeat cooler and rain; then warmer again. Scotland & N England temps after the 23rd stay closer to normal (with the usual scatter) and rain throughout that week with some runs showing big totals. The Midlands have the temp pattern of the S but also the large rainfall spikes.

Some rain for the Midlands would be good as it’s needed here, with gardens and fields very dry.  

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God model watching is such a frustrating hobby. Now ECM goes all plumey again. Flip flop flip flop. Mind-addling drugs could not mess with a brain more than model watching. Just hilarious!! 🤣🤣🤣

One would need to be on them to forecast a cooler than average summer in the UK this year. Could happen but it's very unlikely and already there are signs of the west European heat dome in some of the output. The crucial question looks like being rainfall amounts.

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One would need to be on them to forecast a cooler than average summer in the UK this year. Could happen but it's very unlikely and already there are signs of the west European heat dome in some of the output. The crucial question looks like being rainfall amounts.

I think the building blocks are well in place for a warm to hot summer....Just a question mark over rainfall in my view too.

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ECM looking pretty warm with potential for some fireworks at the end I'd say?

GFS as usual not buying in, but the op run is one of the coolest in the set.

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Just wanted to note that not everywhere has been getting warm weather -  its been very dry but often a cool wind, so only had one day this year above the 21c threshold. Doesnt look like we will see plus 21c this week either.

At least we had some rain last night, monthly total now at 3.3mm

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ECM looking pretty warm with potential for some fireworks at the end I'd say?

GFS as usual not buying in, but the op run is one of the coolest in the set.

 

We're getting fireworks around these parts every Thursday night at present!

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This evenings models looking pretty decent generally, apart from GFS. Most have a reload of warmth from early next week.

One interesting thing to watch out for: it’s going to be very windy on Friday and Saturday in the North and West, and on Saturday in particular it will also be sunny in the South.

I think the record combined output for renewables on the UK grid is about 20gw. We have midday peak solar capacity at this time of year of about 9gw and wind capacity of around 16.5gw. If we manage to get something even like 7 of solar and 13 of wind we’ll be getting close. Add on biomass (though they probably wouldn’t bother to burn it if wind and solar are producing so much) and the record could easily be beaten. Energy use is low too because of lockdown. Around 27-28gw on weekend lunchtimes. So with Nuclear at 5.8gw we could be close to 100% low carbon energy.

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Yes looking like a potential reload of warmth next week, my phone app has it up to 25C this week, then after a brief cooler blip at the weekend back up to 25C again by Tuesday.

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Jetstream looping around the UK at the moment but a blast from the SW over the UK Fri 22nd; then running across the N half of UK to Wed 25th; dying away for a few days and then enfolding the UK in a loop to the south Sat 30th - Thu 4th

GFS keeps Hp across the UK to Fri 22nd then a fairly deep LP runs NW to Sun 24th after which the HP rebuilds more strongly and stays around until Sat 30th; after which an Atlantic trough moves in, quite a long way south at first but retreating to Shetland by Thu 4th.

FAX makes the westerly incursion much stronger with gales on Fri 22nd.

ECM also has a more intense LP on Fri and compensates by a stronger HP in the following week

GEFS for the S has a little rain Thu 21st May followed by a brief drop in temp then most runs above seasonal norm from Tue 25th and dry. in fact much drier than yesterday's forecast. For Scotland similar except that later runs are close to seasonal norm, not above; and there is a little more rain but also drier than previously forecast. Thundery spikes in rainfal now conspicuously absent.

Keep watching - the models aren't very stable at the moment! 

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