If you like dry weather I'd say make the most of the next week. It's starting to look unsettled after that. More rainfall spikes appearing on GEFS. My fence protector is arriving from a well known DIY store on Thursday and I'll be slapping it on that very same day. On my garden fence that is 🙂

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The above GFS ensemble chart for Edinburgh shows that the next week still looks completely bone dry in this part of the world, but the precipitation spikes for around a week's time onwards are now looking more noticeable. That is still far enough ahead to be in the semi-unreliable time frame of the GFS and given the current unreliability of the latest model output, I still wouldn't have too much confidence in that for now.

However, it is starting to look increasingly likely that this month might not end up being our wettest April on record after all, thanks to that wetter few days which are showing up here and although the chances of that actually happening are still fairly low just now, those chances appear to be increasing all the time just now with each model run.

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For down here, looks dry until the end of the month start of May which heralds a change in wind from the west and a couple of days rain and a fresher feel. After that, looking more settled and temps rising again. In all, not too bad!

The above GFS ensemble chart for Edinburgh shows that the next week still looks completely bone dry in this part of the world, but the precipitation spikes for around a week's time onwards are now looking more noticeable. That is still far enough ahead to be in the semi-unreliable time frame of the GFS and given the current unreliability of the latest model output, I still wouldn't have too much confidence in that for now.

However, it is starting to look increasingly likely that this month might not end up being our wettest April on record after all, thanks to that wetter few days which are showing up here and although the chances of that actually happening are still fairly low just now, those chances appear to be increasing all the time just now with each model run.

Definitely more there than when I looked at the 0z

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More rain now being shown in week 2 in http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 - matches previous posts

As in previous days GFS has at first HP over Noway, LP over France with E-lies, all collapsing to slack pressure on Fri 24th. Trough of LP then works in from the Atlantic and Mon 27th is aligned from W of Ireland to Baltic states (cf the Meteogroup forecast which showed this first). That trough breaks up irregularly but eventually resolves into a trough N-S over UK Fri 1st  persisting through to Wed 6th with pressure rise over Europe blocking any progress for the trough.

ECM agrees up to the 27th but then aligns the trough further south, from Iberia to the Baltic, with pressure over the UK fairly high Mon 27th    and intensifying as a ridge to Norway by Wed 29th

GEFS pattern follows the GFS. Temps a little above average to Mon 27th*, then a little below in the S, well below briefly in Scotland, recovering by Fri 1st. Less divergence than usual. Rain starts Mon 27th and continues on and off to Wed 6th, but definitely more than forecast yesterday with the largest totals in the SE

 

*BBC forecast says more than a little above average inland but cold on E coast this week

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Looking a bit early late April / early May 2007... I remember the first few days of May had almost identical weather with gin clear blue skies and a gusty easterly. A month later, and we were watching aerial photos of record flooding.

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If I was to post the latest GFS Ensemble chart for here in Edinburgh, it would once show precipitation spikes starting to appear from around 25 April in line with what I posted yesterday. This means that if I went by that alone, it would be almost certain what this month won't be our driest April on record after all.

However, I have also been studying the GEM and ECMF models as shown in Gavin P.'s latest model. There, the GEM doesn't appear to be interested in any sort of change to wetter conditions here by the end of the month with high pressure continuing to dominate throughout, right until the end of the month although I don't know how much support that particular operational run has from its own ensembles.

Meanwhile, it would appear as though the ECMF and its ensembles does eventually support a change to more unsettled conditions in this part of the world, but delays that until the beginning of May.

If either of those two models are right, this will be our driest April on record because any precipitation which occurs within the ECMF solution would form part of next month's rainfall totals rather than this month's rainfall totals which would continue to have virtually no further additions to that.

Furthermore, it has to be remembered that we have had this current blocking area of high pressure in charge of our weather for quite a while now, and the models tend to never be very good when it comes to the timings of these blocking areas of high pressure eventually being broken down, or the manner in which this happens.

Because of that, it may well be the case that the GFS is trying to break down that blocking high and return us to low pressure, too quickly. Because of that, my own gut feeling from all of that has to be that we still remain on course for this month to be our driest April on record here in Edinburgh.

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Looking a bit early late April / early May 2007... I remember the first few days of May had almost identical weather with gin clear blue skies and a gusty easterly. A month later, and we were watching aerial photos of record flooding.

What is the point in posts like these, i mean I'm sure one could find other examples of late April early May settled sunny spells that didn't result in wash out summers. By the way early May is still around 2 weeks off. And winds from the east quarter are common in spring and often bring settled weather, and thanks to the lower humidity the sky is often crystal blue - away from eastern coastlines naturally.

GFS this morning not much changed from yesterday at first. Up to Thu 23rd the UK sandwiched between HP over Norway and LP over Iberia with SE-lies.. By the weekend, this has all collapsed to a slack pressure area over the UK but LP begins to work in from the Atlantic with defined centre Thu 30th Faeroes 985mb and NW-lies. Then the Atlantic becomes more active with depressions Sun 3rd 970mb Faeroes, Tue 5th 990 mb SW Ireland, both tracking NE, and more lining up in mid-Atlantic.

ECM generally agrees though the breakdown of the slack LP starts earlier (ca Tue 28th) and involves LP on the Atlantic linking with another centre over the Baltic before the Atlantic dominates. On Thu 30th the LPis positioned further W so winds from SW not NW. (Note - 0z runs only up to Tue 28th at time of posting)

GEFS warm or at least milder than seasonal norm to Mon 27th, then less of a dip than forecast yesterday, temps for most runs in most places close to norm through to Thu 7th. Also less rain about than forecast; beginning rather uncertainly from Mon 27th, more later on especially in the W and SW but still irregular, no prolonged spells. 

 

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Jetstream still fragmented and away from the UK but resuming as a coherent and direct stream across the Atlantic including the UK from Wed 29th to Wed 6th, after which a meander shifts it N-wards. (On the last day of the run Fri 8th there's an interestingly powerful streak for the time of year on the far side of the Atlantic - watch this space!)

10 day summary has average temps for the UK (but a cold patch in E Europe) and dry for week 1, rain in the NW later

GFS has HP to the east at first, slack pressure over the weekend, LP centres appearing both E and W of the UK by Tue 28th, the Atlantic one dominating and extending a trough over the UK on Fri 1st. Then the familiar zonal flow with depressions moving between Scotland and Iceland until Thu 7th when HP over near Continent brings up some very warm air from the S.

ECM similar but LP centred closer to W Britain on the 1st

GEFS temps declining to norm by Wed 29th (cooler for a couple of days in N England and Scotland) and generally close to norm thereafter but rather more divergence between runs than yesterday. Mostly sporadic rain showing up from Mon 27th, totals less in the SE than the NW. The far N represented by Inverness stands out as consistently wet from the 27th and even a few snow rows in double figures  around the 29th.

 

 

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Slack pressure for the next few days on GFS, eventually pressure drops with broad weak trough from Mon 27th and a better defined LP moving in from the Atlantic 990mb SW Ireland Sat 2nd. Then zonal flow with deeper LPs on Thu 7th 980 mb Hebrides and Sat 9th 985 mb S Iceland, and pressure relatively high over S England though not so marked as yesterday.

ECM handles the breakup of the slack pressure somewhat differently with a more defined LP in N Sea Mon 27th and the LP on Sat 2nd much further off in the Atlantic creating a warm S flow.

FAX goes further, not only LP in N Sea but also ridge of HP in Atlantic preventing approach of Atlantic LP

GEFS a bit different to yesterday with a seesaw profile of temps - above norm to Mon 27th, below to Fri 1st, mostly above to Wed 6th (but with agreement between runs breaking up) then lower again. This pattern also in Scotland but more flattened. Chances of rain generally from Mon 27th onwards including a definite cluster around Sat 2nd in the S.

 

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The possibility of some rain now coming into view early next week. Nothing too wet but at least the garden will need less watering. Did we always have these extended periods of the same weather? Changeable seems to have gone out of fashion with the UK climate.

Edit to say that's from the GFS 06Z - the MetO forcast is having none of it; still dry as a bone.

The possibility of some rain now coming into view early next week. Nothing too wet but at least the garden will need less watering. Did we always have these extended periods of the same weather? Changeable seems to have gone out of fashion with the UK climate.

Edit to say that's from the GFS 06Z - the MetO forcast is having none of it; still dry as a bone.

We got a good soaking last weekend.

And the April totals are not far off average so far down here.

 

We got a good soaking last weekend.

And the April totals are not far off average so far down here.

Many places up north have hardly had any rain! Less than 1mm in Edinburgh!

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We got a good soaking last weekend.

And the April totals are not far off average so far down here.

Some people got a good soaking last weekend, but that didn't extend anywhere near as far north as here in Scotland and because of that, Edinburgh Gogarbank still hasn't even had as much as half a millimetre of rain throughout the course of this entire month.

The answer to the question of whether or not, this month actually ends up being our driest April on record is clearly going to depend very much on how much rain (if any) we get during the last few days of this month.

I think that the models are more in agreement now that this month will end on a more changeable and less settled note. However, there is still some model output which is continuing to suggest that the rain might not arrive in this part of the world in enough time to prevent this month from being our driest April on record.

 

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Many places up north have hardly had any rain! Less than 1mm in Edinburgh!

But surely as Scots you guys should just be enjoying a rare few weeks without rain. 🙂 After all it isn't something that happens often up at your end of the country.

GFS looking rather different this morning with weather over the UK dominated by troughs of low pressure swilling around for a couple of weeks. After a fine weekend, 1000 mb off Norway bringing in cold NE-lies on Mon 27th, moving to Cornwall 995 mb Thu 30th, reinforced by Atlantic LP and over N Ireland 1000 mb Mon 4th and a S-ly flow, and finally to Holland 1000mb Sun 10th with the NE-lies back again.

BBC last night also emphasised LP and the resurgence of the jetstream, but brought the LP up from the S on the 27th/28th with some heavy rain for the S, supported by FAX charts in which the NE-lies only affect Scotland.

ECM (yesterday's 12z at this time) also likes the idea of LP but moves it smartly to the Atlantic on Tue 28th, and has a deep depression 975 mb travelling across Scotland Fri/Sat 1/2nd and NE-lies at that time instead.

GEFS for the S has temps above norm until Mon 27th, below until Sat 2nd (much below, says the MetO), big divergences therafter both above and below norm; also more rain than previously forecast 1st-5th. Temp profile for Scotland similar, but rain a couple of days later and less of it. Rain throughout for far N (Inverness) and some wild outlier rainfall spikes for W of England/Wales.

The general idea is the same for different models but the devil is in the detail - keep watching!

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Well the remarkable sunny, settled warm spell finally coming to an end Monday. ECM though going for a plume early May some GEFS flirting with the idea as well.

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Well I for one will miss this lovely settled spell. It's been great to be able to sit out in the garden during lockdown, though I recognise some people don't have that luxury.

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Well the remarkable sunny, settled warm spell finally coming to an end Monday. ECM though going for a plume early May some GEFS flirting with the idea as well.

Sunny and settled but up until yesterday I wouldn't say warm, particularly. There's been a really annoying nagging cold breeze much of the time, and strong enough to do a fair bit of damage in the garden.

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