The BBC online forecast for MBY is far more optimistic for the whole week than either the Met Office or GFS.

 

 

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We're on day 16 with no measurable rain and only Wednesday/Thursday showing chance of light rain.
The last significant rain of 5mm was mid March so six weeks drought really.

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We're on day 16 with no measurable rain and only Wednesday/Thursday showing chance of light rain.
The last significant rain of 5mm was mid March so six weeks drought really.

Certainly looks wet down this end of the country with heavy rain due to arrive shortly after midnight and continue all of tomorrow morning at least. Then it looks like three further bands of rain between Wed and Fri.

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I was hoping for a transition to April showers and sunshine, instead it looks like a complete washout down here tomorrow. Yuck! 10c cooler too - this will be a shock to the system.

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Shame to see the end of this settled spell but at least I won’t have to water the garden for a while!

 

just turned over and reseeded a lawn patch which was grey and cracking up. The week ahead looks like good growing weather. Wish me luck!

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10-day forecast continuing wet for week1 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 but drying up slowly in week 2; temps on companion page nothing startling but some warm weather further S in France which might - just might - come north later.

GFS has LP centres moving across UK on Fri 1st and Tue 5th (the latter with a pulse of S-lies preceding it) then ridge of HP Fri 8th persisting until pushed away E-wards by large Atlantic depression Tue 12th intensifying Thu 14th.

ECM (still yesterday's 12z) quite different on Tue 5th with LP staying well to SW and warm temps under HP hanging around to at least Thu 7th.

GEFS forecasts unstable with far less rain for this week than shown yesterday (BBC does not agree), no more than a sprinkling, and that continuing on and off through to Thu 14th. General agreement on a warm spell Tue 5th (cf above), otherwise the mean of runs close to seasonal norm but with wide divergence* later on. Scotland gets a marked spell of rain to go with the warmth on the 5th.

* The undistinguished mean conceals a few very warm runs and a greater number just below average.

 

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ECM once again on the optimistic pills this morning warm and sunny with a decent plume from about 144h onwards. If we get lucky with the plume we could see high 20s next week.

 

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Much of Southern Europe is likely to really warm up over the next few days, especially Spain (35C in Seville by Sunday) , so any southerly airstream could bring heat to our shores next week.  

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12Z GFS unrolling very differently from the 6Z, thankfully if you are after warm weather. 6Z had a full on easterly with widespread snow on northern hills in the second week of May! 12Z has high pressure over the UK instead.

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12Z GFS unrolling very differently from the 6Z, thankfully if you are after warm weather. 6Z had a full on easterly with widespread snow on northern hills in the second week of May! 12Z has high pressure over the UK instead.

And a grand total of 6mm of rain here between now and the 14th of May on that run. That would leave a running total of 30 something mm of rain here in two and a half months should it come to fruition.

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The conversation on past rainfall rather than model output moved to April precipitation thread

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GFS having trouble making up its mind and in the end disagreeing with other models about a warm spell. After the current depression drifts off to the N Sea by Sat 2nd (good graphics of the its fronts on FAX) the almost-warm-spell moving up from France only gets as far as the south, briefly, before a new LP centre is over Cornwall Thu 7th bringing in NE-lies off the N Sea for the next few days. From Mon 11th there is slack LP around finally replaced by a zonal W-ly on Fri 15th.

I'll have to come back later to update the ECM - it's the same as GFS to Mon 4th but frustratingly I've got to break off before today's output appears looking fully further ahead.  Tue 5th/Wed 6th have appeared - dramatically different from GFS with HP and warmth from south over all the UK. BBC hinting at this too. [last minute edit - HP and warm fine weather lasting out the week, couldn't be more different from GFS]

GEFS shows rain around for the next two weeks, bits and pieces in the south after the next day or so, more definitely in the north around the 5th and also later around the 12th. Temps above average for a few days around the 5th, after which so much divergence there's no saying what will happen (e.g. a 20C difference between op and control for Brighton on the 14th!)

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Another very settled and warm ECM run. Models really struggling for next week though could be anything yet.

 

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Jetstream continues strong westerly  to Mon 4th when it winds itself up into a cut-off pool over the SW approaches. From Sun 10th northern and southern branches fringing the UK , the northern branch moving closer but weakly from the NW from Thu 14th.

After moving the current LP out of the way, GFS has come on board with LP to west of UK Tue 5th bringing warmth up from the south, the LP drifting across the UK by Sun 10th. After that to end of run on Sat 16th HP over or west of UK just about fending off NE-lies from Scandi.

ECM keeps the HP in place through Thu 7th and then experiments with the idea of LP and a plume coming up from the south Sat 9th.

GEFS perturbations still have the warm days  in the S around Tue 5th and extend the above-average spell to Sun 10th, but Scotland no better than seasonal mean throughout. After this a lot of divergence, could be very warm or very cold. bits and pieces of rain around, highest chance about Thu 7th in S England, Mon 4th in Scotland. Some places esp Liverpool showing occasional big spikes typical of thunderstorms.

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All the models showing pressure high over the Arctic basin, and unfortunately as long as this continues we’ll see the classic odd summer weather of the 2010s with low pressures undercutting blocks to our north. Hopefully a decent polar vortex will return at some point. It was record strength through the winter.

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GFS 18z thrown out a beautiful winter run

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GFS 18z thrown out a beautiful winter run

up to 162 hours and it looks great for us  Mid 20's easily.

10-day outlook has temps a bit above average, rainfall a  bit below http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

The present LP moves away, and while there's a new one to the SW with HP over Scotland and a S-ly flow by Tue 5th, it doesn't develop. By Fri 8th there's a ridge of high pressure from Iceland to France, quite narrow so that E and W sides of UK could be quite different. The HP shifts S-wards by Wed 13th and by Sat 16th a familiar picture with Atlantic depressions running across N of Scotland.

ECM similar but fancies a more powerful ridge at least to Fri 8th and better weather for the UK in consequence

GEFS perturbations more consistent than yesterday - for the S, temps above seasonal norm to Sat 9th, then a predominant majority for quite cold slowly recovering to norm by Sun 17th; and minimal rain except for a little around the 5th. Similar for Scotland & NE England but temps are close to or below seasonal norm to start with, just a short burst above norm around the 7th.

The 'quite cold' doesn't match the synoptic charts.

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ECM going for more ridiculous northern blocking again days 9 and 10. 99% of the time it drops the idea as it gets into the reliable . Lets hope it does again.

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up to 162 hours and it looks great for us  Mid 20's easily.

 

Aye, and for a lot of the run it'd be alright here in May. My point (not well explained) what that the run would have been amazing in January.

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