Sunny and settled but up until yesterday I wouldn't say warm, particularly. There's been a really annoying nagging cold breeze much of the time, and strong enough to do a fair bit of damage in the garden.

NE Hampshire perhaps but down here in south Hampshire 5 consecutive days of 20C+ 🙂 Today however isn't looking good for a 6th day as a noticable SE breeze is blowing, but 19C i think is likely.

Very wet looking Ensembles now and unsettled looks like once it sets in it will be with us for a considerable period of time....no real respite for 2 weeks at least once it starts breaking down after the weekend.

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Very wet looking Ensembles now and unsettled looks like once it sets in it will be with us for a considerable period of time....no real respite for 2 weeks at least once it starts breaking down after the weekend.

Figured the ensembles had taken a turn for the worse seeing you pop in again 

An unsettled end to April with rain for many (welcome, too!). As we head into May it looks pretty typical spring fare with sunshine and showers and temperatures close to average. Not sure anything is really 'set in', so to speak. Nor would I say it is looking 'very wet' either. Wetter, yes. 

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Figured the ensembles had taken a turn for the worse seeing you pop in again 

An unsettled end to April with rain for many (welcome, too!). As we head into May it looks pretty typical spring fare with sunshine and showers and temperatures close to average. Not sure anything is really 'set in', so to speak. Nor would I say it is looking 'very wet' either. Wetter, yes. 

Yeh, I'll rephrase....much wetter, but not 2007/2008/2012 wet just yet. Some hints of a plume possible in early May, but a couple of weeks of crap to get through I'd say.

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Yeh, I'll rephrase....much wetter, but not 2007/2008/2012 wet just yet. Some hints of a plume possible in early May, but a couple of weeks of crap to get through I'd say.

Hope you are well! 

It'll be unusual here just to have consecutive days of falling rain! Agree on the plume possibilities.

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We were always going to get a wet interlude at some point. Hopefully a few days of damp weather and then a nice plunge followed by more settled weather.

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A more coherent jet stream is back for a while, with a broad swathe running just south of UK Wed 29th -Tue 4th but then enfolding the UK in a loop (with the UK on the LP side) for 2 or 3 days before dissipating again by Thu 7th.

GFS - The current HP subsiding and replaced by a trough aligned E-W which resolves into a shallow depression moving in from the SW to Irish Sea 990 mb Thu 30th. That is replaced by another LP 995 mb Sun 3rd which slowly moves off to Scandinavia; and then yet another one Mon 11th (that's a long way off).

ECM similar but LPs even shallower. Both models IMO look to give showery rather than frontal rain.

FAX has the LP on the 30th similar but a deeper one waiting out on the Atlantic for later.

GEFS runs have temps around the seasonal norm (a hint of something briefly warmer Tue 4th?) and more frequent rainfall than forecast yesterday Tue 28th - Thu 7th in the form of showery spikes, after which somewhat drier but not entirely so. However N  England and Scotland have a definitely colder spell around Tue 28th which BBC extends to the whole country.

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Shame to see the end of this settled spell but at least I won’t have to water the garden for a while!

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Shame to see the end of this settled spell but at least I won’t have to water the garden for a while!

Only if you're lucky with the showers!

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Only if you're lucky with the showers!

They look pretty widespread from around Tuesday next week on GFS. But you’re right that they can be hit and miss. It’s been extraordinarily dry here for over a month, with just one decent overnight downpour and the ground is already cracked and bone dry near the surface.

It’s been interesting watching the models trying to resolve the upcoming pattern change over the last week. As always the change as high pressure seeped away was well signalled but it’s taken a few attempts to work out the detail as pressure falls away in our vicinity.  Low pressure looks to be increasingly the main theme for the next week or so.

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They look pretty widespread from around Tuesday next week on GFS. But you’re right that they can be hit and miss. It’s been extraordinarily dry here for over a month, with just one decent overnight downpour and the ground is already cracked and bone dry near the surface.

It’s been interesting watching the models trying to resolve the upcoming pattern change over the last week. As always the change as high pressure seeped away was well signalled but it’s taken a few attempts to work out the detail as pressure falls away in our vicinity.  Low pressure looks to be increasingly the main theme for the next week or so.

 Yes the change to unsettled has been picked up early by models and forecasts but the detail in how the breakdown occurs has been vague. Now a slow slip from High pressure to slack pressure to low pressure and then a more active jetstream pushing Atlantic fronts our way.

This switch in weather has been very consistently modelled, as was the switch to high pressure in late March. Good example of how our global models are actually pretty good at picking up wide scale changes.

I wonder what the trigger is.

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This switch in weather has been very consistently modelled, as was the switch to high pressure in late March. Good example of how our global models are actually pretty good at picking up wide scale changes.

I wonder what the trigger is.

Possibly a temporary switch to more La Nina type conditions over the Pacific ?

 

Only if you're lucky with the showers!

Looks more like some widespread and prolonged spells of rain rather than hit and miss showers, at least for this coming week. 

My bedding plant order arrived today so I’ve got them in and they should get a good watering in this week. Just need to try and get the fence painted tomorrow before the rain arrives. It only needs an hour to be showerproof so I should be ok!

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Not for the first time, ECM is toying with a significant (for the time of year) plume in early May. +15c isotherm knocking on the door of the south coast. Would become very warm very quickly if that verified, with some instability and storms thrown in for good measure.

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Not for the first time, ECM is toying with a significant (for the time of year) plume in early May. +15c isotherm knocking on the door of the south coast. Would become very warm very quickly if that verified, with some instability and storms thrown in for good measure.

  I’m wondering if we’re in for a repeat of spring/summer 2019.  April has done well so far, on a very similar line to last year in my part of the world and if I remember rightly, was dry until the last day or two.  Then May was mostly warm, dry and sunny. 

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Looks as if it might warm up a bit in week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 but certainly the end of the dry spell, week 1 particularly for the south and more generally week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.

GFS - general decrease of pressure leads to LP 995 mb centred over UK on Thu 30th. The next LP starts to run N towards Iceland Sun 3rd with some S-ly winds ahead of it, but changes direction and is 985 mb Hebrides Wed 6th. HP back on Mon 11th as a N-S ridge just to the west of the UK, winds N-ly but it looks as if the air has trekked round the top of the HP so not too cold (unlike the other side of the N Sea - a bit close for comfort!) 

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) similar but makes more of S-lies from Sun 3rd.

FAX has a larger multi-centred LP 991 mb on Thu 30th over England and N France

GEFS runs have temps not far from average, perhaps something a little warmer widely around Tue 5th (cf S-lies above) but cool in NE England & Scotland until then, and rain occurring frequently in all runs throughout to Tue 12th, declining in places after Sat 9th (agreement on heavy rain for S on Wed 29th).

 

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The 00z ECM ensemble for London shows the switch to a cool and quite wet spell this coming week, with some recovery in temperature towards next weekend. Quite good agreement across the ensemble runs and with the 00z GFS.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

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I take back what I said about showers this week - it now looks like frontal rain and heavy at that, at least for the south; see your local forecast for exactly when it will arrive (Tue 28th/Wed 29th, perhaps it will be showers after that)

Jetstream setting up W to E across the south of the UK Tue 28th and swinging round to SW to NE by Sun 3rd but still there over the south, breaking up on Wed 6th but resuming its W to E trajectory Sun 10th.

Pressure pattern on GFS shows LP close by for the next 10 days and with centres actually over the UK/Eire on 990 mb Thu 30th & 995 mb Tue 5th. Brief ridge of HP Sat 9th after which deep LP near Iceland initiates a W-ly flow. ECM takes the LP on Tue 5th on a more NW-ly track followed rather sooner by that ridge of HP moving from the Atlantic.

GEFS runs on the cool side this week, milder around Tue 5th, mean of runs close to norm thereafter but with wide variation. Increased amounts of rain compared to previous forecasts for the whole of this week,  starting Tue 28th in the S and a day or two later in the N. Week 2 still with rain generally, but not as much. London and the SE have a noticeably big total 28th/29th, up to 20mm.

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Tomorrow is certainly looking like a wash out down here. Perhaps good news for gardeners, hay fever sufferers and general rain lovers.

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