A remarkable change on the way down here according to the Met Office modelling at least.

Today: 22C, light winds, sunny.
Tomorrow: 8C, strong and cold NE'lies, cloudy.

It'll be like going from August to February overnight!

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A remarkable change on the way down here according to the Met Office modelling at least.

Today: 22C, light winds, sunny.
Tomorrow: 8C, strong and cold NE'lies, cloudy.

It'll be like going from August to February overnight!

I was out in the garden for much of yesterday in the warm sunshine. Here is the regional Met Office forecast for tonight: “A few light snow showers will affect Moray and North Aberdeenshire,”.

On a different note the very dry conditions look like continuing for the foreseeable future. Scottish Water has already warned customers on private supplies in NE Scotland about a potential shortage this summer.

 

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Le previsioni del tempo e mobile as Verdi should have written but probably didn't.  The warm weather is further from the Channel coast http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 (but this doesn't match GFS below)and blobs of rain which were sitting over the UK on last night's chart (inland only, implying convective showers) have disappeared again in favour of a long dry spell http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Jetstream after Monday's blast down the N Sea, breaks up into northern and southern branches avoiding the UK and with lots of fragmentation in each branch.

GFS indicates from Tuesday HP developing as a ridge from Faeroes to France through to Sat 18th (not as far east as yesterday) and then in the following week further north, from Scotland to Norway. Winds mostly E to SE. Slack LP skirmishing to the SW or S in week 2 but not very close.

ECM similar

GEFS for S cool on Mon 13th but rapidly recovering to mild, even warm, until 23rd, then most runs back to average temps to end of run on 28th   For the E, cold not just cool and 13th and a smaller dip in temp on Fri 17th as well;  for the SW no dip on 13th, otherwise same pattern of mild/warm before cooling down . Mostly dry, no systematic rainfall but best chances around Sun 19th +/- 2 days esp in SW.

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It's incredible how our weather has flipped from incessant rain to bone dry in such a short spell of time. Almost unnatural.

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You could argue it's changeable but not in the normal sense. Contrast in temperatures with change in position of the HP but dry as you like. No measurable rain here for a month now and none in the foreseeable future. Would have made a great winter !

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It's incredible how our weather has flipped from incessant rain to bone dry in such a short spell of time. Almost unnatural.

Indeed. Just about the time the lockdown started too. 

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After the cool down tomorrow, GFS going for a particularly chilly spell towards the end of next week. If only it was...
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_33.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_2.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_10.png
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_4.png

Indeed. Just about the time the lockdown started too. 

Could get that chilly spell next week Moomin you were banging on about a few weeks ago. Pure guess though as the same charts were showing +25c a couple of days ago.

Overall outlook on temp is down as the yellows retreat back to the Medhttp://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 and still dry - if you get a shower, treasure it!

GFS has HP sitting around over UK for week 1 (to Sat 18th) while LP over Baltic brings cold air south into Europe - no direct N-lies but the -ly or SE-ly winds likely for the UK may pick up a backwash from this. Week 2 (to Sat 25th) the HP tends to shift towards Iceland with a more definite E-ly or even NE-ly (Wed 22nd). Finally on Wed 29th HP has retreated into mid-Atlantic and we get a direct N-ly blast (but as commented before, a long way off and may never happen)

ECM similar in week 1 but rather differently positions the HP over Norway in week 2 with an Atlantic LP affecting the NW of the UK through to Wed 22nd.

GEFS - Agreement between runs breaks up around Mon 19th (it was more consistent for longer yesterday) but mean of runs in S stays above seasonal average to about Wed 22nd and then a couple of degrees below through to Wed 29th, Dry, just a few runs with big rainfall spikes late on. Temps in Scotland and NE England quite warm briefly on Wed 15th followed by a sharp dip on Fri 17th before resuming as above. More chance of rain in SW and Wales esp around Fri 19th

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It's incredible how our weather has flipped from incessant rain to bone dry in such a short spell of time. Almost unnatural.

Indeed. Even with everything else that is happening in this country and around the world just now, the change to generally much drier weather since the middle of March has been very welcome.

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Our last 'useful' rain was 5mm on 15th March since then nothing more than 1mm here and there from showers.
Drought in Spring is commonplace but with at least two more weeks much the same this is becoming noteworthy, though not serious as yet.
It is unhelpful to spring sown crops which have had to be more widely sown this year due to difficulties through the very wet Autumn.

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U turn from GFS for next week. It has reverted back from some chilly weather to something more seasonal. Still not set in stone though as it has flip flopped from one scenario to the other over the last few days.

can anybody remember what websites these charts/maps are from again please?

 

 

 

 I'd been surprised if anyone on here has seen a drier GFS ensemble for their area than the above. We are almost halfway through the month and yet not one of my three local stations has recorded a total of more than 1 mm over the course of this entire month, based on each observation day starting at 09:00 UTC (10am BST).

I have discussed these actual totals on many occasions in this month's PW thread which is the appropriate place for such a discussion. However, I also showed in that thread how we are currently on course for this month to go down as our driest April on record just three years after that last happened in 2017.

If the above ensembles verify, then we surely have to say that this month will indeed, go down as our driest April on record here in Edinburgh.

 

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Jetstream staying clear of the UK for the foreseeable - lots of loops this week and mainly to the north of the UK until about Fri 24th, when the bits of it that were south of the UK link up and run strongly through the Med. Just a hint that it will be back over the UK, running from the SW on Thu 30th

GFS synoptics have UK under slack ridge of HP from Iceland to Balkans until Sun 19th and shallow LP to the SW, less incursion of cold air from E than shown yesterday up to that point. The HP then moves north as a definite centre in the Norwegian Sea until Fri 24th with winds turning E then NE, before collapsing and allowing a depression to approach from the Atlantic 985mb off SW Ireland on Wed 29th and spreading up the W coast.

ECM develops the northern HP a day or two earlier and then moves it out into the Atlantic by end-of-run Thu 23rd with more in the way of E/NE-ly winds.

FAX charts also place the HP to the north early on, and make more of the development of a trough in the Channel than the above through to Sat 18th

GEFS runs for S mild/warm until Tue 21st then on the whole cool, matching the shift in position of HP above (but with exceptions) through to Thu 30th. A new feature is a cluster of rainfall spikes Fri/Sat 17th/18th in S/SW and to some extent in NW (BBC weather this morning also suggesting showers from the S/SW by then). Most runs dry thereafter but again more with chances of rain than yesterday.

The N cools down a couple of days earlier, and is almost entirely dry in NE England & Scotland

Inverness still showing snow row figures in the teens at the end of the month.

 

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can anybody remember what websites these charts/maps are from again please?

 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

 

There are loads of parameters but this will give you a link to get started https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temperature-6h/20200414-1200z.html 

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There are loads of parameters but this will give you a link to get started https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temperature-6h/20200414-1200z.html 

Thank you Doc 🙂 this is the website. I couldn't remember the name of it.

Models shifting to a bit wetter in the South, Friday -Saturday

It's still looking very dry where I live. Really could do with some rain for the garden. 

FAX (especially) and ECM now showing LP developing on the Atlantic for this weekend, throwing a trough forward to affect the south of the UK over the weekend. GFS reluctant to move from its yesterday's pattern of a broad ridge of HP running N-S across or slightly E of UK. ECM then brings further LP up from France Tue 21st before rejoining GFS and predicting HP 1035 mb over Norway/Scotland  Thu/Fri 23rd/24th and NE-lies across S Britain.

GFS similar but emphasises HP over and to the N of UK and downplays LP over France. From Fri 24th GFS keeps HP around the N of UK but gradually weakening and by Wed 29th shallow LP dominant over the UK. UK is on the edge of 552dam air for most of this time so temps could go either way.

GEFS has agreement  between different runs to Thu 23rd for mild weather (only just qualifying as mild in N), then cooler with some runs definitely cold. Less rainfall in immediate future  than yesterday and pushed back to Mon 20th (but more and sooner in SW, entirely absent in Scotland and NE); then more chances of rain later on from Mon 27th. 

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