Away from the South West, there still looks to be precious little in the way of rain over the next 10 days,

Looks like the drought is set to end tomorrow with a band of rain pushing northwards, arriving some time during the middle of the day over the south coast.
Good for the dusty gardens 👍

Slightly above average temps, definitely at first, and dry once the rain at the end of this week has passed through http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.

In respect of that rain, FAX charts had it right  and the MetO chart for rainfall on Friday has a wel organised area of frontal heavy rain progressing northwards - I'd almost forgotten what that looked like!

For the longer term, GFS has well-defined HP 1030 mb over Norway Mon 20th with trough still hanging around over France for the week and strong E-lies at first; by Sat 25th HP over Norway has faded and a new centre over the Atlantic brings in NE-lies and eventually Fri 1st May has drifted across to Scotland 1040mb with wind going back to E/SE. 

ECM also has the HP over the Atlantic Sat 25th but not as strong as GFS and the HP cell drifts westwards from Norway, not a new centre. GEM does the same.

GEFS temps rather like yesterday; above average to Thu 23rd then dropping back to a little below h through to May 2nd with the usual divergence for week 2. More rainfall at first, in S 18th-21st (Fri-Mon) and not much nor consistent thereafter; the rain peters out a it moves N & E, Cardiff and Liverpool see it but nothing significant in Norwich and Newcatle, even less in Scotland. Some hints of rain here and there in a couple of weeks' time.

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Thanks as always DEW!  After all the flooding and soggy ground in recent months, who’d have thought we’d be looking for rain!  Gardens definitely need it though.  

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Once again, the south of England (which always appears to get all of the more "interesting" weather which is going these days) looks set to keep any upcoming rain events to itself whilst our spring borefest looks set to continue as shown on the above GFS ensemble for Edinburgh.

I am noticing just the odd rainfall spike starting to appear, but that still looks like a very dry ensemble to me. Furthermore, most of those rainfall spikes appear to be in the unreliable time frame of this particular GFS model and so, I would say that we remain very much on course for this month to go down as our driest April on record if that is right, which would beat a record which was only set as recently as April 2017.

However, that particular month (April 2017) was then followed by a poor summer in this part of the world which also included our wettest June on record, so I hope that this doesn't end up being a bad omen for the coming summer.

 

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However, that particular month (April 2017) was then followed by a poor summer in this part of the world which also included our wettest June on record, so I hope that this doesn't end up being a bad omen for the coming summer.

 

But at least that would be "interesting"?

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But at least that would be "interesting"?

You're actually correct there, because what would be described as "interesting" weather isn't necessarily going to be the sort of weather which we would actually want to see.

This works the other way around as well because the vast majority of us usually like to see warm and sunny weather, especially during the summer as that is part and parcel of what makes up a decent summer overall.

However, our best chance of getting that sort of weather will come from being under high pressure at that time but if this is the sort of blocking high which hangs around for a long time, our weather (even if it is warm and sunny) then becomes boring and uninteresting after a while, due to that being the dominant weather pattern which virtually never changes from day to day.

Because of that, I must also stress that just because the weather is boring, this doesn't necessarily that I don't actually want to actually experience that sort of weather. That is because my concept of what makes the weather interesting or boring is based more in terms of whether or not, that makes for interesting content on these forums, rather than the type of weather which I actually want to be seeing.

 

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I'd say being on course for the driest April on record in your part of Edinburgh is very interesting.

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I'd say being on course for the driest April on record in your part of Edinburgh is very interesting.

That may well be right although if that was the case down in the south of England, I'm sure that someone on this forum would probably have already started a separate thread which is devoted to that very subject.

On the other hand, that sheer lack of rainfall in this part of the world is happening as a result of a lack of any sort of actual "weather" happening here, and that is what makes it rather boring, repetitive and therefore, "uninteresting" from my perspective.

Furthermore, the fact that the Government has just extended the COVID-19 lockdown by another three weeks makes this the perfect time to be getting some rain in order to keep people at home in the manner in which the Government is looking for.

The latest GFS ensemble as shown below, continues to show no real signs of that actually happening for now.

 

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That may well be right although if that was the case down in the south of England, I'm sure that someone on this forum would probably have already started a separate thread which is devoted to that very subject.

Now there's gratitude for you! I've always taken care to distinguish Scotland from the N of England in the daily summaries so as to avoid upsetting sensibilities. If you're not careful, I'll go to the philosophy behind the notorious BR poster which advertised 'Excursions to Scotland and other towns in the North of England'

 

Yes, I do look at the S of England first in the GEFS but then I do live there. In any case, the south of England would need two months of dry weather before it merited a separate thread

 

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Now there's gratitude for you! I've always taken care to distinguish Scotland from the N of England in the daily summaries so as to avoid upsetting sensibilities. If you're not careful, I'll go to the philosophy behind the notorious BR poster which advertised 'Excursions to Scotland and other towns in the North of England'

 

Yes, I do look at the S of England first in the GEFS but then I do live there. In any case, the south of England would need two months of dry weather before it merited a separate thread

 

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So, once again a large high pressure is set to dominate the weather over the next couple of weeks bringing an easterly/northerly airflow over the country for the 3rd time since the start of 'Spring'...!! all through 'Winter' we had incessant wet, windy, mild westerlies producing a snowless 'winter' for the first time in my neck of the woods which was just ridiculous yet just when you expect the warmer weather to start we get perfect winter charts bringing single figure temps on the east coast...!! not what the butterflies, bees, ladybirds and summer visitors such as Swallows, House Martins need...unbelievable...!

So, once again a large high pressure is set to dominate the weather over the next couple of weeks bringing an easterly/northerly airflow over the country for the 3rd time since the start of 'Spring'...!! all through 'Winter' we had incessant wet, windy, mild westerlies producing a snowless 'winter' for the first time in my neck of the woods which was just ridiculous yet just when you expect the warmer weather to start we get perfect winter charts bringing single figure temps on the east coast...!! not what the butterflies, bees, ladybirds and summer visitors such as Swallows, House Martins need...unbelievable...!

As a result of all of that as well, all that we are likely to get here in the east coast of both Scotland and England (since it's not winter) is yet more easterly muck coming in from off the North Sea, along with cooler temperatures whilst it at least gets a bit warmer further inland with a greater chance of some sunshine. Because of that, I fear that our weather is about to get even more boring and uninteresting here in Edinburgh as a result, as if our weather wasn't already boring enough in this part of the world.

However, I had a feeling some time ago, that this would happen not so much due to the recent SSW Event (which didn't even propagate very well down to the 30 hPa level of the stratosphere, let along the troposphere where all of the weather actually happens), but due to the annual seasonal warming of the stratosphere which occurs anyway, due to the sunshine becoming that much stronger at this time of year.

Given that the exceptionally powerful polar vortex which is thought to have caused all of those flooding issues during the latter part of the winter in particular, was probably the result of an exceptionally cold stratosphere over the North Pole, it was always going to the case that in order for the stratospheric temperatures to recover to around normal, the amount of seasonal warming of the stratosphere would need to be so great that the effect of that on the troposphere would probably be similar to that of a SSW event anyway.

I would say that this is probably what has resulted in the current northern blocking being in place which is around just now, and which is likely to around for a while yet, resulting in those wind patterns which you have mentioned.

 

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Back to the serious stuff ...

Jetstream shows little coherence over the next couple of weeks with loops and fragments everywhere except over the UK. However from Thu 30th a not-too-strong jet does develop over the British Isles. 10-day summary shows just above average temps and dry, just a bit of rain in the west.

After today's troughs from the south (the daytime one now shown a fizzling out before it reaches the North Midlands, the second one overnight making an impact about that far) GFS and ECM establish HP centre over Norway and LP over S France with SE-lies over UK for the first half of next week.

By Sat 25th both HP & LP have declined and pressure is slack over the UK for a few days. From Thu 30th GFS shows a zonal flow (remember those?) with LP over Iceland, HP over Biscay and W-lies. Finally on 3rd May the LP moves to Norway with a N/NW spell though the Atlantic remains blocked behind it.

GEFS runs similar nationwide, near seasonally average temps throughout with a crossover from just above to just below around Mon 27th but increasing uncertainty after that date. Also from that date increasing chances of rainfall especially away from SE England. (The SW & Wales get a bonus splash of rain on Mon 20th, nothing significant elsewhere)

 

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HP over Norway 1035mb to Wed 22nd while LP over France flirts with the S of the UK with SE-ly winds, after which it collapses and by Mon 27th there is a depression running across Shetland with a zonal look to the weather (quite a change from previous forecasts when this feature developed at the end of that week). Another LP centre near Iceland Fri 1st May, after which HP develops in the Atlantic and blocks further W-lies, allowing the LP which has been hanging around over Spain to move north to threaten the S.

ECM agrees with the above GFS at first but is slower to bring the LP in from the Atlantic; it's still well west of Ireland on the 27th. 

GEFS runs have good agreement on temps a bit above seasonal norm to Mon 27th after which mostly a little below. Rain (not a lot) only appears after that date, mostly in the N of the UK

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It seems like the change to cooler weather is getting pushed back and watered down almost by the day.

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Jetstream anywhere and everywhere except the UK for the coming week. Fragments start to appear near the UK around Mon 27th and a coherent stream just south of the UK from Fri 1st. 10-day outlook matches this with blocked pattern for week 1 (temp blocks arranged N-S (above average W Europe, below in E Europe, above in Siberia) and dry for the UK week 1 but rain showing up for France and S England week 2.  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 and http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

From the Two chart viewer https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx:

As yesterday to start with, HP over Norway and LP over France with E-lies until Wed 22nd, collapsing to a slack pressure area by Sat 25th. Then a weak ridge of HP aligned N-S drifts across from the Atlantic to Thu 30th (N-lies as it arrives and S-lies as it leaves); LP then moves in from the west and settles over the UK by Tue 5th.

ECM similar for week 1 but after that the ridge of HP less well defined with LP fringing NW Scotland

On the BBC last night, the MeteoGroup model was suggesting a broad area of LP extending W-E across the UK on Mon 27th.

GEFS similar to yesterday at first; temps above seasonal average to Mon 27th (good agreement), then just a bit below (some scatter), but (new) recovering after 3rd May (mostly but not universally). Dry to 27th then increasing chance of rain to Tue 5th (erratic with a few big totals in S, more frequent but small totals in N and in Scotland)

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Yes Dew - change of month brings a change to the weather. It's a common - perhaps more apparent than real, Phenominon - but so too maybe the tendency (climate changed) for the weather to get stuck in ruts for longer, wet rut, dry rut, bodes badly for May!! I predict a cool and wet summer, followed by a cold winter. Just a hunch mind you....

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While it is set to be fine, dry and sunny for the next few days over Kent, a freshening east wind may let the side down. So, I wouldn't break out the garden chair just yet (might get away with sitting in my well sheltered west-facing front port in the afternoon, though).

It may not be until the end of the week or by next weekend when we get to lose the easterly wind but with an increased chance of cloud and showers. 

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While it is set to be fine, dry and sunny for the next few days over Kent, a freshening east wind may let the side down. So, I wouldn't break out the garden chair just yet (might get away with sitting in my well sheltered west-facing front port in the afternoon, though).

It may not be until the end of the week or by next weekend when we get to lose the easterly wind but with an increased chance of cloud and showers. 

I tried sitting out in the sun last week, but that easterly wind then had a chilly edge to it. It really is a drying wind. The gardens cracking up. My hands are cracking up, but that could be the over washing. Though saying that when I've played tennis in a dry easterly, my hands do crack up.