I think it's quite rare to get sub-500 thickness values into England (500-1,000 hPa).

Those are the 500hPa values not (500-1000hPa). The 500-1000hPa values would be in the 520s on that chart.

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 If people think it's still pretty poor then look back at the very first post by Brian in this thread and see the ensembles he posted on December 27th. These are way more promising so some progress. Looks like a battle for a sensible mean after the 25th. Will the individual pets align above or below the mean.

Its poor. All those big dippers are as a result of a cold NNW'ly flow. Admittedly it would bring some interest to the NE of the UK briefly. In virtually all such cases they are temporary and the jet overides flattening things thereafter. Not one perturbation dares brings an east of north flow.

As we move deeper into winter these polar NW'ly flow teasers will naturally become colder as the source of air to our north becomes colder due to natural seasonal progression.

 

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Those are the 500hPa values not (500-1000hPa). The 500-1000hPa values would be in the 520s on that chart.

Oops, sorry, no idea why I said that.  Quite obviously that chart doesn’t show what I said.

It's been a hard day.

 

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Its poor. All those big dippers are as a result of a cold NNW'ly flow. Admittedly it would bring some interest to the NE of the UK briefly. In virtually all such cases they are temporary and the jet overides flattening things thereafter. Not one perturbation dares brings an east of north flow.

As we move deeper into winter these polar NW'ly flow teasers will naturally become colder as the source of air to our north becomes colder due to natural seasonal progression.

 

Quite. But it's all relative and in the scope of this winter......

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Tally the PV is being tickled on the tummy and wriggling around a bit. Some deflection, not major disruption.

 

 

Nothing changes in Bonersville on the weather forum model threads does it. Tally still sucking the life out of valuable reply time with its incomprehensible guff

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Nothing changes in Bonersville on the weather forum model threads does it. Tally still sucking the life out of valuable reply time with its incomprehensible guff

Long time no speak Matty and now this - you must have a lot of time on your hands I see, that was posted and replied and acknowledge on 15th? Bit slow aren't you? This is a model output discussion anyway? I would be keen to see your contribution to this discussion thread Matty? Hopefully less incomprehensible guff than my posts!

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Nothing changes in Bonersville on the weather forum model threads does it. Tally still sucking the life out of valuable reply time with its incomprehensible guff

a little bit uncalled for don’t you think? 
Ah,,,,, thinking,,,,, enough said 

 

a little bit uncalled for don’t you think? 
Ah,,,,, thinking,,,,, enough said 

Matty's like those ageing rock stars that come back and try to raise hell like they used to... but it comes of as tiresome and desperate rather than funny like the old days  Shame.

Back to the models and the GFS 00z not looking quite as encouraging as yesterday with any glimmer of cold pushed back into early Feb with plenty of scatter.

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This mornings GFS has finally killed anything resembling a two day toppler, which has disappeared by incremental blows from he west to east powering jet, but the FI tease this morning is a jet spike from the south of southern Ireland all the way up to well above Svallbaad - splitting the PV, with a deep Siberian low heading east, and as it does so, potentially pulling down a large polar high, shown to be building, which could well settle over Scandinavia if the mothern bound jet energy serves us well. The mirage may vanish by the next run. LOL.

In the mean time, a spell of calm and average temps will be welcome relief to relentless rain and wind, if a tad yawn inducing. We need a QBO chart: Brian, any signs of a change yet? Patience was never my strong point...

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‘Incremental blows’ sums it up nicely. In small steps did the GFS deliver a quick northerly and in small steps it’s taking it away. I’m now wondering if this January is going down in history after all - and for the wrong reasons.

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This mornings GFS has finally killed anything resembling a two day toppler, which has disappeared by incremental blows from he west to east powering jet, but the FI tease this morning is a jet spike from the south of southern Ireland all the way up to well above Svallbaad - splitting the PV, with a deep Siberian low heading east, and as it does so, potentially pulling down a large polar high, shown to be building, which could well settle over Scandinavia if the mothern bound jet energy serves us well. The mirage may vanish by the next run. LOL.

Patience was never my strong point...

That 'tease' is in deep FI so it looks as if you'd better sign up for a course in patience training ... but that's what this winter's been about?

Looking at the jet, it's taking a more northerly course and looping until around Thu 23rd supporting HP over the UK, followed by a split jet N and S of the UK (still fairly settled weather) and only Fri 31st does it deliver a northerly punch.

GFS shows an early SW blast this weekend, then HP all through next week, as an E-W ridge to Sat 25th wrapping itself round an Iberian low, then after weakening, re-establishing a similar version the following week but sited a bit further east. ECM agreeing until later, the second spell of HP is placed further south allowing LP with strong cold NW-ly over Scotland.

GEFS for Brighton like yesterday, cool to 22nd, mild to 27th, back to normal but the control run dipping cold like yesterday; very dry to 27th, then some rain. Similar all the way up to Scotland, though the mild spell starts a little earlier and the number of colder runs at the end is larger, Inverness in particular having consistently high snow row figures at that stage. In FI, mildish HP predominates though a few runs with cold northerlies can be found.

 

further afield, some properly cold air over Moscow in week 2, the first time this 'winter' that temps have not been above normal, but unfortunately showing a tendency to move south rather than west - we need that HP over Scandi!http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 but it looks as if Norwegian mountains are due for a big snow dump http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

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‘Incremental blows’ sums it up nicely. In small steps did the GFS deliver a quick northerly and in small steps it’s taking it away. I’m now wondering if this January is going down in history after all - and for the wrong reasons.

Indeed Neil. This is just a gut feeling rather than evidence based but I have been unimpressed by the latest (v3) version of the GFS model, to the extent that I almost expect the scenario you describe before it happens. Perhaps globally its performance is satisfactory but for the U.K. it seems to me to be less reliable than its predecessor.

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My view remains unchanged. This winter could be a "mild classic" finishing in the all time top 10. We're struggling to get a northerly burp let alone a toppler or anything more notable. The kibosh could be colder conditions in late February.

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Dew and Doc, both good summing so up. The ref to that northern push of energy was my best stab at straw clutching, but since the 2-day toppler toppled over to nothing at 240 hours, I certainly wasn't banking on the FI at 384, but may be its my impatience, but I do think there seem to be more teasingly interesting scenarios emerging - after the relentlessness of the jet delivering its usual fare of fast-food quality weather!

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ECM30 has updated this morning. It suggests the chase for mild records is most definitely on. Positive temperature anomalies across the whole of the UK during week 2,3 and 4. Week 1 is positive across the north, although there is no anomaly in the south, presumably due to the high pressure pattern.

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ECM 240 hours sums up the potential 'but likely' plight for Europe.

Very cold air spilling out of the Canada and the USA interacting the jet stream with strong cyclogenesis throwing zonality well across into scandinavia.

-10c 850Hpa locked away across Siberia

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My view remains unchanged. This winter could be a "mild classic" finishing in the all time top 10. We're struggling to get a northerly burp let alone a toppler or anything more notable. The kibosh could be colder conditions in late February.

Out of interest, were you anticipating colder conditions at the back end of the winter when you wrote your TWO winter forecast, Brian?

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Out of interest, were you anticipating colder conditions at the back end of the winter when you wrote your TWO winter forecast, Brian?

No and I'm not convinced now either. Just flagging it as a possibility. 

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No and I'm not convinced now either. Just flagging it as a possibility. 

Brian your TWO winter forecast has been as good as any so far.

The fact that for February you have this:

'Second half

The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions.'

gives people looking for even a bit of snow some hope given the accuracy so far

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00z 850hPa for London ensembles. On Jan 31st the op run and control run are 20C apart, -12 to +8.  Not a lot of use really is it. Renders the mean useless with that amount of sd.

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