a little bit uncalled for don’t you think? 
Ah,,,,, thinking,,,,, enough said 

Yet he ranted about this thread and me posting saying I was 'sucking the life out of valuable reply time with "incomprehensible guff!"

Yet Matty has the time reply to my post days after I posted it and hasn't posted anything himself?! ha the irony. 

But back to models. -Let's look at NAO - Potential for some negativity towards the end of January after positive since start of December - could all change but maybe we go go negative at some point this winter - just a matter of when?!

The PV should be weakening soon as temps rise a little in the stratosphere and remember we have the developing easterly QBO so fingers crossed. AO is set to return to neutral (at least for now!).

Latest NAO chart.

Looking at the 06z ensembles: as fairweather said - quite a lof of Scatter and ensembles around 30th are some 20c apart:

Control is colder option and one thing we can all be proud of - FINALLY - is a welcome break from wind and rain for at least the next 7-10 days. Could be the driest spell we have seen since August maybe??

 

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Almost eye candy territory in FI at the very end of the run, snow shown down to e midlands, and a toppler with -10 hpa 850 air running down the east side at least...mm but will is be another tease? It is at least a pattern repeat of the current high situation but with a bit more cold artic incursion - at this iteration at least. Watch the death by a thousand cuts as it runs forward! LOL

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Can you all please stop bullying Matty.

Thanks.

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Can you all please stop bullying Matty.

Thanks.

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The only snow on tonight's 18z will be snow-drops flowering early. The control has modelled an interesting couple of days before the topple.

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Gfs is  completely hopeless, the op keeps throwing out mild runs, with plenty of colder options in the pack. 

Hasn't got a clue is the obvious conclusion with so much difference in temperature in the ensemble pack.

 

Wouldn't be so quiet in here if had picked one of the many colder options for its operational run. 

 

Maybe next run will be showing something much colder.. 

Nope.... GFS still going for summer by the end of the 00z

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No surpsie to see that yet again the -5C line proved elusive for London, despite the past few days' runs showing it being reached.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=6 

I honestly can't remember a winter where we've only had 12 hours of it by the 18th January!

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GFS has high pressure in charge of the UK weather for the next two weeks. Snow? Forget it. Frost and fog? Quite likely so may look a bit wintry at times. HP cell to max 1045mb  over UK persists to Fri 24th, then as that moves off to the SE, another develops by Wed 29th over N France and persists to end of run. Windy from the W over Scotland at times.

Notable zonal flow on Thu 30th when the 1010mb isobar runs not far off straight from one edge of the TWO chart to the other.

ECM develops the second HP more slowly and further south, allowing cold NW-ly on the E side of Britain on Mon 27th, but similar up to then.

That cold pool over Moscow mentioned yesterday is no longer forecast, though Norway is still due for a big snow dump on its west coast.

GEFS runs agree on temps 2-3C below seasonal average for a few days , then similarly 2-3C above until ca 26 Jan (and higher than that in Scotland) after which divergence with mean still around normal, but some cold runs to ponder on. Very dry throughout in S, some rain later on in N, but you have to go as far N as Inverness to find significant amounts.

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Poor runs this morning for something properly below -5 850s as Retron states. The only glimmer I see this morning is the distant FI rumblings of trying to build a scandi high pressure. Check out the postage stamps at the end of the gfs runs. Must have something to cling onto! At least high pressure seems to be sticking around and a couple of frosts!
Martin

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No surpsie to see that yet again the -5C line proved elusive for London, despite the past few days' runs showing it being reached.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=6

I honestly can't remember a winter where we've only had 12 hours of it by the 18th January!

You can have ours today, it’s not that exciting. 

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It gets harder to get a lasting cold spell each year because the jet energy keeps building and further north. How much co2 was released from all that biomass burning in Aus?
We need to seed the oceans with sequestron iron, to turn the baron seas into algae baths to sop up all that excess co2, the air travel tax should pay for civil aircraft to do this. Then we might see the models returning the now rare as hens teeth Scandinavia HP - best chance of this perhaps next winter, because QBO easterly, still near Maunder low, so may be sun spots will start again but not be too bold and hopefully a sutras ENSO. Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again. Apologies for being slightly off topic, but it is dire for us coldies. On the bright side, my heating bill is lower this year!!

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Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again

Even with a skiing holiday you might struggle to find decent snow this season - apart maybe from the US Rockies resorts.

The outlook isn’t all doom and gloom though. I see some data this morning continues to increase the chances of a significant reduction in N pole zonal winds up to end if Jan, with an outside chance of a minor SSW by first week of Feb. With the lag effect we might see this resolve into HLB by mid-Feb, and should said HLB form in the right place we might go a bit cold.

All ifs, buts and maybes I agree but I’ll grasp anything that even remotely resembles a chance of proper winter at the moment. 

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Well at least we had a frost this morning and probably quite a sharp one the next 2 nights

Spring like as we move into February. 

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There's often a few mild spring-like days at Candlemass

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It gets harder to get a lasting cold spell each year because the jet energy keeps building and further north. How much co2 was released from all that biomass burning in Aus?
We need to seed the oceans with sequestron iron, to turn the baron seas into algae baths to sop up all that excess co2, the air travel tax should pay for civil aircraft to do this. Then we might see the models returning the now rare as hens teeth Scandinavia HP - best chance of this perhaps next winter, because QBO easterly, still near Maunder low, so may be sun spots will start again but not be too bold and hopefully a sutras ENSO. Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again. Apologies for being slightly off topic, but it is dire for us coldies. On the bright side, my heating bill is lower this year!!

Interesting idea? Has anyone done a study to look in more detail at it?

Sorry, OT!

Yes, my central heating is from the 1970s, but still working (just!) Always grateful for it not to be tested too much. The Beast back in Feb 2018 was the last time I really had to put it under strain

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Even with a skiing holiday you might struggle to find decent snow this season - apart maybe from the US Rockies resorts.

 

 

Scandinavia is doing just fine

 

https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days

 

Spring like as we move into February. 

should at least make a change to perpetual autumn 

That chart from the 06z run of the GFS, when compared with the 12z equivalent, highlights the futility of looking at individual runs at that time range.

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