If you're after colder weather the trends in the model output are tenuous but encouraging at present. For example the mean t850hPa by day ten for this location is down to -8°C on the 06z GFS suite.

It even hits -5C down here*, for one data point (6 AM on the 19th). -5C at 850! In January! Incredible.

(We have, of course, only had 12 hours of -5s at 850* so far this winter. I would wager that's the lowest amount in the Internet era, if not before...)

* - London gridpoint on Meteoceil.

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 I would wager that's the lowest amount in the Internet era, if not before...)

* - London gridpoint on Meteoceil.

I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)

Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.

 

 

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I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)

Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.

 

 

 

2013/2014 was boring for cold, but presented enough crazy weather for some discussion.  Alot of moaning admittedly.  But the Physics being why it happened attracted alot of discussion.

 

This year has just been like October on ground hog day.  Last frost for us was back on Dec 2nd... had some snow in Novermber (a few flakes)

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Don't get me wrong and think that I am predicting a cold spell, I am not. I am justing pointing out a trend towards something a bit more seasonal. Such trends have occurred to a lesser extent in recent weeks and amounted to zero. There's no reason currently to think this won't be the same, but I will keep an eye on it just in case.

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It would be rather ironic if Brexit day was bitter with a chill wind blasting in 

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It would be rather ironic if Brexit day was bitter with a chill wind blasting in 

Longer term output (ECMWF) suggests a mild end to Jan after a brief cool snap, but much scope for change at this early point. 

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I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)

Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.

 

 

 

2013/14 had some spectacular storms.

I know not nice for those directly impacted, but the storm on 5th December was an absolute monster. Below is from New Brighton, directly opposite Liverpool waterfront on the other side of the river. 

 

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Definitely some hope of a first cold spell of the winter probably still an outside bet at this stage.  The GFS wil almost certainly pick it up before ECM though  it nearly always does.

 

 

 

 

 

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Definitely some hope of a first cold spell of the winter probably still an outside bet at this stage.  The GFS wil almost certainly pick it up before ECM though  it nearly always does.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's 5 members going for -10 there.

That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!!

 

 

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2013/14 had some spectacular storms.

I know not nice for those directly impacted, but the storm on 5th December was an absolute monster. Below is from New Brighton, directly opposite Liverpool waterfront on the other side of the river. 

 

We avoided most of those storms that winter, but there was high frequency of thunder, which I was totally cool with. 

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London snow Row up to 35!!

 

Liverpool - 49

Newcastle - 88

Sheffield - 52

Birmingham - 41

Glasgow - 75

Inverness - 178

 

 

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London snow Row up to 35!!

 

Liverpool - 49

Newcastle - 88

Sheffield - 52

Birmingham - 41

Glasgow - 75

Inverness - 178

 

 

 

Definetly an easterly bias

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Definetly an easterly bias

 

Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)

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There's 5 members going for -10 there.

That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!! 

Just a few days earlier than the snow came for the SE last year (1st/2nd Feb) 

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I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)

Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.

 

How about the winter of 2006-7: Dec 6.5, Jan 7.0, Feb 5.8.

It would be hard to get much worse than that. I'm sure there must have been people here then saying we would never get another cold winter, but just three years later we had the coldest (taking all three winter months into consideration) since 1978-9.

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Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)

slighly raised eyebrow Saint at the uptick in cold possibilities but seeing as we are working from a mean of zero chances so far this winter it’s a step in the right direction. Some good old fashioned fog and frost will do me, if we can tap into a northerly then great but I think the block will come under too much pressure and sink south. Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. 

 

slighly raised eyebrow Saint at the uptick in cold possibilities but seeing as we are working from a mean of zero chances so far this winter it’s a step in the right direction. Some good old fashioned fog and frost will do me, if we can tap into a northerly then great but I think the block will come under too much pressure and sink south. Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. 

 

My expectations are suitably small! 

Not had a good fog for ages; would be most welcome.

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Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)

I (for a fleeting second or two) thought you meant the forecast northerlies were like those of '67 and '69...

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I think it's quite rare to get sub-500 thickness values into England (500-1,000 hPa).

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There's 5 members going for -10 there.

That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!!

 

 

If people think it's still pretty poor then look back at the very first post by Brian in this thread and see the ensembles he posted on December 27th. These are way more promising so some progress. Looks like a battle for a sensible mean after the 25th. Will the individual pets align above or below the mean.

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