Could be a Top 5 UK pressure reading into next week. 1053.6 is UK record I believe?

I hope so.  I really like MLB in winter if its centred over the UK.  Proper cold winter highs are great.  Unfortunately this HP looks to drag in Atlantic airs post Tuesday, which is a pity.

Could be a Top 5 UK pressure reading into next week. 1053.6 is UK record I believe?

1054.7mb in my garden back in 1902. That was a good day, although I remember Richard complaining about nondescript vile anticyclonic muck. Anyway that was back in 1902 when we got real weather. 

 

1054.7mb in my garden back in 1902. That was a good day, although I remember Richard complaining about nondescript vile anticyclonic muck. Anyway that was back in 1902 when we got real weather. 

You are doing well both of you. What's the secret?

Nick

 

You are doing well both of you. What's the secret?

Nick

I believe we only get one year of weather every decade or so which may account for it. 

 

1054.7mb in my garden back in 1902. That was a good day, although I remember Richard complaining about nondescript vile anticyclonic muck. Anyway that was back in 1902 when we got real weather. 

Oh you are a card Mr. D.

ENS more interesting few wintry options about awaiting a decent pub run which have been missing so far

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=201&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

ENS more interesting few wintry options about awaiting a decent pub run which have been missing so far

Looks like you've got your wish. Stunning pub run incoming with brutal northerly.

GFS 18z = best run of the winter by miles

GFS 18z = best run of the winter by miles

 

Yes, shows whats possible iF the high wobbles into the west.  Probably a bit of an outlier...

Hang on in there, mid-Atlantic "omega" type high. 

Hang on in there, mid-Atlantic "omega" type high. 

Transient ridge there Ian!  Still, a fun little FI  northerly that.  Gone on the 0z! 

...and back to square one in deepest Lala land.

 

Transient ridge there Ian!  Still, a fun little FI  northerly that.  Gone on the 0z! 

...and back to square one in deepest Lala land.

After that Northerly will be keeping an eye on the NE developments

Put the optimism on hold! More straws to clutch at but cross-model agreement in a reliable time frame is still needed.

GFS as yesterday; brings a trough through tonight then big rise of pressure, 1040-1045mb Sun - Wed 22nd over UK with strong southerlies over Ireland, then moves off into Atlantic by Sat 25th with northerlies down the N Sea into Denmark and Germany but just missing us (and if my experience of GFS northerlies is anything to go by, more likely to shift to the east than not). Generally W or SW-ly flow then resumes through to Fri 1st Feb

ECM takes the high pressure westwards a little earlier and brings in a NW-ly on Sat 25th, cold for Scotland but not making it all the way south

GEFS ensembles stay together for cold 18-21 Jan, then mild to ca 25th Jan after which agreement breaks up - the mean is close to seasonal average but a few very cold runs, notably the Op  Run EDIT, sorry, Control Run at -10 for a few days. Dry after today until 25th, not much after that either. Pattern much the same UK-wide, though N Scotland has more rain/snow after 25th.

A quick scan of the T+300-384 postage stamps shows a less persistent mild pattern than so far this winter, but cold air usually W or E of us

Yesterday's kind remarks appreciated

In Copenhagen at the moment - yesterday, Denmark recorded its warmest January temperature on record - 11.2 degrees. It is unremittingly warm, grey and wet here - just continuous gloom and the Danes are sick of it - never known a winter like it.

This foulest of foul winters continues as expected. This winter does not disappoint in being the worst of the worst. As I stated at the end of December, once this pattern sets in at the start of January, it persists.

How I wish for a January to be a winter month for a change!

How I wish for a January to be a winter month for a change!

Whether it is down to a distorted view of the past or actually sound observation, but I find that March tends to be more of a 'winter month' in terms of cold and frost/snow potential than January. To observe snow in January seems an almost impossible task! 

Not seeing much to get excited by from a cold perspective. The GEFS control run is about the coldest on show this morning. Can be stepped through here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=180&chartname=850tmp&chartregion=na-region&p=0&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C