Incorrect. It’s me waiting for your response to why verification dropped earlier in the month, around 11th Dec which exposes flaws in your idea. We’d seen the same default zonal pattern all month. 

EDIT: Oh, why bother. Welcome to the ignore list.

 

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GFS has high pressure over the UK to Tue 21st (once this week's rubbish has gone) but then maintains HP close by till Tue 28th when a trough drifts in from the N Atlantic.

BBC last night was going for full on zonal stuff  from Wed 22nd instead of maintaining the HP.

ECM takes a middle position as does the Jetstream which is looping around early next week to support high pressure over UK around Mon/Tue 20th/21st but soon back to strong westerly, then weaker a week later and diving well south for a while.

GEFS has rain on 17th (mostly in S) then dry to 25th; cool at first then milder for a while from 21st (a day or two earlier in N) until the usual scramble sets in.

Nothing generally cold on the FI postage stamps out to T+384, so I'm pinning my hopes for a cold spell on the cold air creeping across the NE Atlantic in week 2 and then developing http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Thanks. It's good to read a succinct summary of where we stand every morning.

I will welcome the arrival of high pressure to settle the weather down for a while. Where it goes after that is up for debate but as nsrobins mentions it is hard to bet against a sinker with zonal conditions re-establishing.

I hope those pinning their hopes on the favourable MJO phase 7 are not overestimating any potential impact it has on our weather once the models pick up the influence.

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Thanks. It's good to read a succinct summary of where we stand every morning.

...

Seconded, and a big to DEW for providing it.

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Yes thanks DEW, my first read in the morning before flicking through the model output.

In the meantime this winter rumbles on unceremoniously continuing to deliver unremitting shite to most of the UK and Europe. It feels like this Autumnal dirge will never end

Control goes for a SSW at +300:

Operational - Is going for a slight SW post +300 but does eventually get there...!?

It does eventually get there end of run:

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Yes thanks DEW, my first read in the morning before flicking through the model output.

In the meantime this winter rumbles on unceremoniously continuing to deliver unremitting shite to most of the UK and Europe. It feels like this Autumnal dirge will never end

Well at least in Autumn there was snow in Devon  - whilst I was away on 13th November. Could have had my first white birthday since Krakow, Poland on 13th Nov 2007.

Many parts of the Moors incl Princetown had between 2-3cms of snow and there was a dusting of wet snow over Okehampton, sleet fell in Crediton and wet snow too.

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/heavy-snow-fall-devon-live-3534924

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Bit more interest on the 12z high more amplified cool northerly flow @192

Good to see GFS trying to show an "omega" high off to the west of the UK thus bringing the Atlantic flow to a dead stop, that's exactly what we need to dry things up but still keeping temperatures close to seasonal norm. Let's see if the ECM come up with the same idea. 

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Control goes for a SSW at +300:

Tally non of those charts show an SSW. They show some warming at 10hPa but that’s not an SSW. 
The zonal wind vectors do look like slowing in the next few weeks but whether it’s enough to induce a technical SSW is another matter. 
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

 

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Good to see GFS trying to show an "omega" high off to the west of the UK thus bringing the Atlantic flow to a dead stop, that's exactly what we need to dry things up but still keeping temperatures close to seasonal norm. Let's see if the ECM come up with the same idea. 

Sadly I don't think it will hold: the pattern suggests the northern arm of the jet is going to flatten things again.

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Tally non of those charts show an SSW. They show some warming at 10hPa but that’s not an SSW. 
The zonal wind vectors do look like slowing in the next few weeks but whether it’s enough to induce a technical SSW is another matter. 
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

 

Indeed.

I was thinking of coining the term 'GISW' as in 'Gentle and Inconsequential Stratospheric Warming'

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Yes thanks DEW, my first read in the morning before flicking through the model output.

In the meantime this winter rumbles on unceremoniously continuing to deliver unremitting shite to most of the UK and Europe. It feels like this Autumnal dirge will never end

 

Although for most in the country, it is far more acceptable than the cold a lot of guys on here seem to hanker after.  For me, this is perfect  British winter weather in our maritime climate.  

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Sadly I don't think it will hold: the pattern suggests the northern arm of the jet is going to flatten things again.

Indeed, the polar vortex has been pretty solid this season. Still, to have something of a break from the Atlantic train will be welcomed anyway, at least by me.

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Tally non of those charts show an SSW. They show some warming at 10hPa but that’s not an SSW. 
The zonal wind vectors do look like slowing in the next few weeks but whether it’s enough to induce a technical SSW is another matter. 
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

 

Yes a slow down!

Finally!!

The control shows a SSW? if this came off after 300z?

Operational shows a warming...

BUT WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE?

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Yes a two week out single ensemble Emeterio has is one nailed obviously. That aside does it even show an SSW? Is the zonal wind reversed at 60°N?

The ECM and GFS 12z op runs look like an improvement initially in terms of less unsettled conditions but beyond that something more seasonal. The latter of course may be a blip that is gone in a few hours.

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Yes a slow down!

Finally!!

The control shows a SSW? if this came off after 300z?

Operational shows a warming...

BUT WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE?

Tally the PV is being tickled on the tummy and wriggling around a bit. Some deflection, not major disruption.

 

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EDIT: Oh, why bother. Welcome to the ignore list.

 

😂 oh the irony. Meanwhile, some rather interesting looking members tanking later on:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 some rather interesting looking members tanking later on:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'd bet that the tankers are Just white noise which will get filtered out byt144 at the latest.  Fantasy Island lives on.

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Meanwhile, some rather interesting looking members tanking later on:

 

I assume this is just an age thing 😉

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I assume this is just an age thing 😉

I refer you to the Forum Arms' Newspaper Headlines thread.

Anyway ECM shows the issue with a strong PV and associated Jet - a potentially 1050+ HP over the UK  gets ridden over the top and flattened, albeit with retrogression.

 

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