Polar low showing up beautifully on the GFS12z.

 

The 850hpa anomoly shows that warm core nicely.

 

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Not an exaggeration to say this has the potential to be one of the strongest polar lows ever.

FYI: its to the north of finland for those finding the tiny thing difficult to locate!

 

yes some potential there, it could be brutal. 

Thanks Q, just been perusing the thread and the polar low development is fascinating. Like Jason says it has the potential to be brutal.

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This is widely acknoledged to be the strongest polar low ever. It's essentially in the same place as this one will be. Will expect something similar or even stronger than this to form.

 

An eyewall made of snow!

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When was that Q?

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When was that Q?

February 1987

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Hi Q,

I have been following your thread closely and what I'm seeing in the arctic currently is unusual given the warmth the arctic has seen over the past 7 or 8 years. 

The intense cold in the arctic at the beginning of January and the growing cold pool over the arctic currently is great to see and should help the arctic sea ice recover over the next few months. 

Today the arctic temperature anomaly is -.07C below average and I think that will continue certainly for the next few days and could even intensify. 

It also looks like that Alaska is seeing quite a cold winter so far with some very low temperature anomalies seen so far this month. 

What is also very interesting is the potential record low temperature seen in Greenland at the beginning of Jan of -66C. Whilst this temperature probably hasn't been verified yet, this extreme temperature has seen little to no media coverage nor has the intense cold over the arctic seen this month. Only the extreme warmth of the arctic and ice loss seems to be widely reported. 

Whilst I love the cold and snow, I don't mind seeing a mild winter in the UK this year if it means the arctic recovers some of the lost ice and sees cold temperatures again. Kind of like a recalibration to the intense warmth the arctic has seen in recent years.

Let's hope this colder arctic trend continues for a few months so we see a more normal melt season this year.

Great thread by the way!

Grant

This may be the precursor low. Note this is 'upside down' so finland is towards the top of this image.

 

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Hi Q,

I have been following your thread closely and what I'm seeing in the arctic currently is unusual given the warmth the arctic has seen over the past 7 or 8 years. 

The intense cold in the arctic at the beginning of January and the growing cold pool over the arctic currently is great to see and should help the arctic sea ice recover over the next few months. 

Today the arctic temperature anomaly is -.07C below average and I think that will continue certainly for the next few days and could even intensify.

is that -7C or -0.07C?

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"What is also very interesting is the potential record low temperature seen in Greenland at the beginning of Jan of -66C. Whilst this temperature probably hasn't been verified yet, this extreme temperature has seen little to no media coverage nor has the intense cold over the arctic seen this month."

Well, as it would seem to be against the creed of global warming, lets ignore it!

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I had a look at the Summit Camp data for the day that temperature record was supposed to have been set and it appears to me that the report might be anomalous or possibly someone had reported the Fahrenheit temperature as Celsius (-65°C is around -54°F which would tie in well with the daily data).

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"What is also very interesting is the potential record low temperature seen in Greenland at the beginning of Jan of -66C. Whilst this temperature probably hasn't been verified yet, this extreme temperature has seen little to no media coverage nor has the intense cold over the arctic seen this month."

Well, as it would seem to be against the creed of global warming, lets ignore it!

To be fair, it’s Greenland - total population is probably 5 people and 50 polar bears. It’s not exactly going to take precedence over devastating wildfires in a populous developed country.

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This is today's 2m T anomaly chart - in the Arctic overall at -0.9C it doesn't look particularly anomalous and the Arctic Ocean has a positive anomaly.

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This is today's 2m T anomaly chart - in the Arctic overall at -0.9C it doesn't look particularly anomalous and the Arctic Ocean has a positive anomaly.

 

Yes but when seeing an arctic wide negative anomoly is a once a year event, if that, it is rare. An arctic 0.9C below the 1971-2000 average is something I typically see once a year in winter. It's happened quite alot this year.

Remember the arctic is the most rapidally warming place on the planet. So an extreme departure from that trend can look unremarkable when compared to a 3 decade+ old average.

 

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Some records broken in Siberia
https://electroverse.net/record-cold-sweeps-russia/ 

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This is what the polar low looked like just before landfall this morning.

Impressive but not as strong as expected as it landfalled quite early oon in it's development.

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Some records broken in Siberia
https://electroverse.net/record-cold-sweeps-russia/

I was interested in the data but then found "Don’t fall for bogus political ideologies." on scrolling down. Does this imply the data have been carefully selected?

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To be fair, it’s Greenland - total population is probably 5 people and 50 polar bears. It’s not exactly going to take precedence over devastating wildfires in a populous developed country.

 

No, but the wildfires happen periodically, the scope of these fires were not a one off. I believe 1939 were worse.

 

But there does appear to be record cold air bottled up over the Arctic.

Just looking at the arctic temperature and temperature anomaly charts today, parts of the arctic near the north pole are approaching -40C. I'm not sure that I've seen temperatures that cold near the north pole for a while - maybe even a few years.  

Whilst the cold has eased off in parts of the Arctic over the past day or so, there are still areas of intense cold pooling. The overall arctic anomaly today is +0.4. 

It also looks like many parts of Alaska are still locked in the freezer with many areas seeing well below average temperature anomalies. 

Will be interesting to see if this trend continues through February.

Grant

Does this mean any northerly outbreaks we get here in the UK will also carry more punch down to our latitude compared with other recent winters?

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