Frigidly cold air ascociated with a very deep cold core low is circulating around the canadian Arctic at the moment, the intensity of the cold is set to intensify possibly culminating around new year's eve. Cold air in the arctic has become increasingly rare as the arctic ocean is disproportionally affected by climate change due to diminishing sea ice. Even seeing below average widespread temperatures is fairly rare these days so to see a brutal cold snap like this is unusual indeed.

Records are likely to fall over Alaska, and northern Canada. It would be difficult to break the all time Americas record (even if you exclude greenland) but a December all time continental record (again excluding greenland) is not out of the question,

It also explains partly why we arn't seeing that much cold air across Europe or the CONUS, the 'cold continents warm arctic' pattern we have become so used to has reversed.

Good news for polar bears I assume.

Means nothing when it seems it is no longer possible for Arctic air to be advected southwards across the UK on an northerly flow 

Good news for polar bears I assume.

I thought polar bears move south during the winter? Might be wrong about that though.

Means nothing when it seems it is no longer possible for Arctic air to be advected southwards across the UK on an northerly flow 

Not good for cold in the UK for sure! Pretty much the complete opposite of what you need. But its still interesting to see a Cold arctic/ Warm continents type pattern. Seems to be becoming increasingly rare.

I guess that will mean increased cyclogenesis and bombing lows over North Atlantic resulting in stormy winds and even more rain for us here at the UK - in fact the GFS has been hinting at it in a few runs now.

NOW I'm officially bored of this so-called "Winter". 

 

I thought polar bears move south during the winter? Might be wrong about that though.

 

Their natural hunting ground is on the sea ice from which they hunt seals.

The lack of sea ice has resulted in bears moving south and encroaching on land looking for other food sources.

So any cold which rebuilds sea-ice must be good I guess.

On the face of it, locking up the cold in the Arctic sounds great for relieving some of the impacts of climate change on that region - but, perhaps counter-intuitively, this is only likely to be true if it doesn't remain the case for the rest of the winter and into the spring.

Snow cover is desperately short of normal across a lot of the upper-mid-latitudes. Without some good exports of Arctic cold across them in the next few months, there will be about as little snow (and ice) as we've ever seen to combat the springtime warm-up of the continents.

With this in mind, I'm hoping for a SSW to occur by late Jan for more than just the possible local snowiness in result. That could enable this winter to be as beneficial as possible to the Arctic sea ice, not only helping it to thicken in the darkest months, but preventing a rapid advance of heat toward it during Mar-May as well.

On the face of it, locking up the cold in the Arctic sounds great for relieving some of the impacts of climate change on that region - but, perhaps counter-intuitively, this is only likely to be true if it doesn't remain the case for the rest of the winter and into the spring.

Snow cover is desperately short of normal across a lot of the upper-mid-latitudes. Without some good exports of Arctic cold across them in the next few months, there will be about as little snow (and ice) as we've ever seen to combat the springtime warm-up of the continents.

With this in mind, I'm hoping for a SSW to occur by late Jan for more than just the possible local snowiness in result. That could enable this winter to be as beneficial as possible to the Arctic sea ice, not only helping it to thicken in the darkest months, but preventing a rapid advance of heat toward it during Mar-May as well.

That's a good point, although in the 80s and the 90s this kind of thing was quite normal. We have become so used to huge positive arctic anomolies and record NHem snow cover. To see it go the other way is quite wierd!

-54C recorded in alaska today, coldest since 2012. Likely to get even colder.

The subtle change is that the really cold air is pushed over greenland rather than the baffin bay where instead of being dissipated to the warm thin ice it intensifies.

This kind of scenario could see some brutally cold temperatures across nunuvat and N greenland. -60C not out of the question.

The cause?

A very deep cold core low. Note the very low geopotential heights. Cold core lows are stronger aloft than at the surface, hence not much going on on the MSLP.

Ryan maude has posted some of the daily temp records for alaska. You can see how extreme 2019 is.

The next place to watch is nunuvat (canada) which is likely to see record cold, possibly even more extreme than alaska.

I've got Arctic Village, Alaska, at -44C at the moment. Hall Beach (near Nunuvat) just -13. Can't find anything below -50 although I'm sure it's out there. Where was this week's -55 in Alaska recorded?

I’m not sure about the -55 (presumably degrees Celsius) on that image but Manley Hot Springs reached -53.8°C (-65°F) a couple of days ago.

I imagine that the hot springs after which the place is presumably names must be producing an impressive amount of steam in the current weather.

Hopefully this unusually cold weather in the Arctic will be doing a lot to replenish the sea-ice.

 

I imagine that the hot springs after which the place is presumably names must be producing an impressive amount of steam in the current weather.

Hopefully this unusually cold weather in the Arctic will be doing a lot to replenish the sea-ice.

It's a double edged sword as people on here have pointed out. The extreme cold is occuring over regions of the arctic that are already frozen. However it will help thicken and cool the ice (the later possibly more important than the former). Cold is even more effective when it comes in tandem with strong winds. Strong winds break up the ice revealing open water which then freezes and increases the overall ice mass. 'Calm cold' is not useful because once you get beyond about 2m the insulating effect means you struggle to get further thickening. But you can get ice thicker than 2m by breaking it apart, freezing water, and then pushing it back together.

The downside of all of this is that it means less cold for lower latitudes which, as has been pointed out, means less snowcover, less southern ice, and potentially more spring warmth. Of course there is plenty of time for this to be corrected.

When cold is 'stored away' like that in the Arctic, it would be only a matter of time before it spills out into the mid latitudes as the westerlies begin to weaken later in the winter and throughout spring. 

Already looking forward to a cold, miserable March and April. 

When cold is 'stored away' like that in the Arctic, it would be only a matter of time before it spills out into the mid latitudes as the westerlies begin to weaken later in the winter and throughout spring. 

Already looking forward to a cold, miserable March and April. 

Depends where it spills out though. If it spills out over the atlantic it will just be dissipated, although before it is it will cause cyclogenesis making cold even less likely for the UK!

If you want cold over the UK, the increasingly rare 'cold arctic, warm continents' is not a pattern you really want to be seeing!