Hit -50C today in Nunuvat. Expecting it to get even colder.

Baffin island is the one to watch. Could get close to -60C in the next few days!!!!

Polar vortex sitting in the baffin should also mean a rapid increase in sea ice there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde_River,_Nunavut

Without doubt Clyde river will see its coldest temp of all time. We only need to get to -50C. Should easily manage that.

Wow possible greenland record broken!

-86F is -66C

This is huge, could be close to the N America continental record and within a hairs breath of the all time Nhem record!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clyde_River,_Nunavut

Without doubt Clyde river will see its coldest temp of all time. We only need to get to -50C. Should easily manage that.

 

It's going to be a tad colder than the Scottish river of that name. 

Hit -50C today in Nunuvat. Expecting it to get even colder.

Baffin island is the one to watch. Could get close to -60C in the next few days!!!!

Polar vortex sitting in the baffin should also mean a rapid increase in sea ice there.

 

My sister-in-law used to live there (in Pond Inlet). Apparently it could get rather cold and somewhat isolated!

Potential records in Alaska, Elsemere (below -40C) and Greenland (close to -66C).

Also sea ice forming on the western side of Svalbard which was rare enough a decade ago and is now unheard of. Bearing sea ice went from pretty much the lowest on record to average within a few weeks.

However it looks like it is all coming to an end. Cold air now established over the baffin area where we could see more records but warm air moving back into the arctic breaking down the 'cold arctic, warm continents' pattern. For those that want cold at lower latitudes the breakdown in this cold arctic pattern is something to be optimistic about.

Polar vortex sitting over the baffin currently with cold 500hpa temps marking it's location.

At 192 hours we see the tropospheric polar vortex is weaker and more centrally located over the arctic.

One other point the influx of extremely cold air from the baffin to the atlantic will cause the jet to go into overdrive so very mild for the time being in the UK.

Potential records in Alaska, Elsemere (below -40C) and Greenland (close to -66C).

Also sea ice forming on the western side of Svalbard which was rare enough a decade ago and is now unheard of. Bearing sea ice went from pretty much the lowest on record to average within a few weeks.

 

However it looks like it is all coming to an end. Cold air now established over the baffin area where we could see more records but warm air moving back into the arctic breaking down the 'cold arctic, warm continents' pattern. For those that want cold at lower latitudes the breakdown in this cold arctic pattern is something to be optimistic about.

 

Sounds interesting, Q.

Let's hope that the anticipated changes in happenings over the arctic eventually help us to get out of the current mild and unsettled pattern we are stuck in at the moment.

 

Sounds interesting, Q.

Let's hope that the anticipated changes in happenings over the arctic eventually help us to get out of the current mild and unsettled pattern we are stuck in at the moment.

Indeed, it won't happen soon though. The immediate consequence is cold air flushed into the atlantic ramping up the jet stream.

However by Mid january it seems like colder weather becomes more likely.

 

Indeed, it won't happen soon though. The immediate consequence is cold air flushed into the atlantic ramping up the jet stream.

However by Mid january it seems like colder weather becomes more likely.

 

That sounds somewhat hopeful for cold weather fans. However, your last sentence doesn't seem to be borne out by the models at present. Now, I suspect that you know your models far better than I do so I won't argue with you. However, can you say what makes you think that the cold air will escape the arctic and bring an end to the current "cold arctic and warn continents" situation? If the current mild conditions over most of the non-arctic northern hemisphere are caused by the cold being bottled up in the arctic, who's to say that that will change in the foreseeable future?

 

That sounds somewhat hopeful for cold weather fans. However, your last sentence doesn't seem to be borne out by the models at present. Now, I suspect that you know your models better than me so I won't argue with you. However, can you say what makes you think that the cold air will escape the arctic and bring an end to the current "cold arctic and warn continents" situation? If the current mild conditions over most of the non-arctic northern hemisphere are caused by the cold being bottled up in the arctic, who's to say that that will change in the foreseeable future?

 

Should clarify I meant 'more likely' in a pretty literal sense! The main reason for the optimism is that it's pretty much the most zonal the pattern can really be at the moment and a simple regression to the mean would imply that things have to break sooner or later. I thought mid january because it doesn't look like there is much chance of anythign interesting before then!

 

Should clarify I meant 'more likely' in a pretty literal sense! The main reason for the optimism is that it's pretty much the most zonal the pattern can really be at the moment and a simple regression to the mean would imply that things have to break sooner or later. I thought mid january because it doesn't look like there is much chance of anythign interesting before then!

 

Let's hope you're right. I'd be glad of a decent air frost at this point!

Although things continue to look bad for the UK, the relatively cold conditions across the arctic are doing wonders for the sea ice.

The barents is the healthiest I've seen in years, and is actually above average. Baffin is doing well and will likely grow to above average. Bearing is still below average but recovered from a record low. Over the next week or so I'd expect growth to resume here. I think there is a chance we could see the first 'average' (previous 10 year) winter sea ice season in decades.

In the atlantic region. Compare 2019 with 2020.

Notable how the 2020 sea ice is much further south but there is much more ice in 2019 in the extreme south east of the barents and the gulf of botnia (south of sweeden). Cold air is locked up in the arctic and conditions are very warm in lower latitudes.

Ice on the west coast of Svalbard is particularly rare these days. Below I've added 2019 for reference.

Arctic winter growth is unprecedented in the last 7 years. The cold air in the right places continues to see large gains everywhere except the low latitudes.

Wonder if there is a feedback going on here. You will recall 2012/2013 which also saw large winter growth had very low summer ice. Lower ice at the end of the summer may have some kind of effect on the polar vortex. This winter has seen consistently positive AOs with all the cold air locked into the arctic.

Seeing the 'cold continent warm arctic' pattern reverse completely is genuinely unexpected. I am so used to seeing near record high NHem snowcover and near record low winter sea ice. Now the pattern has flipped on its head.

Just not used to seeing this kind of thing at all.

I should note that the winter has still been above average overall and at the surface since December was a more 'normal' pattern but also because cold airmass is often not enough to bring cold air to the surface over the sea ice with it's new thin and fragile state. Nevertheless I've seen periods of below average surface temps over the artic this year which have become so rare in recent years. When you are used to seeing record high surface winter arctic temperatures literally every single year. Any deviation from that is wierd.

Not sure how relevant this is to this thread but one other thing I want to draw attention to.

That little blob of -32C 850hpa over the Barents sea. Is going to dive south over the next few days into the warm atlantic. Potentially ripe conditions for a strong Polar low to develop. These are the 'arctic hurricane' equivalents of medicanes. The barents is the #1 place in the northern hemisphere (if not the world) for polar low formation.

Not an exaggeration to say this has the potential to be one of the strongest polar lows ever.

FYI: its to the north of finland for those finding the tiny thing difficult to locate!

A combination of extremely high SSTs in the north atlantic with extremely low air temperatures over the sea ice just a few hundred miles north could whip this thing into a near hurricane strength storm.

Potentially historic.