Does it? Please enlighten the class.

I’m sorry but realistically the big money is on some very nasty zonal stuff after a baby cold shot. 

Surely, realistically, the differences between the models and from run to run suggest anything is possible beyond ten days?

Here’s the ECM 12z ensemble for London, which shows the usual uncertainty from around day 9.

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 Does it? Please enlighten the class.

I’m sorry but realistically the big money is on some very nasty zonal stuff after a baby cold shot. 

Try the 00z ENS today ❄️

Baby cold shot significantly morphing into sub -8s - probable -10s if you review the NE regions.

Morning all, huge uncertainty in the Ens after day 7 which is to be expected of course. However some quite tasty cold options are now starting to appear further down the line but where we go from here is anyone’s guess. In the meantime some more pretty hefty rain totals for the coming few days

Looks like a cold snap at least appearing about the 1st December.  Doesn't look long lasting at the moment 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ECM 00z now onboard !! lovely run with deep cold -
Model transformation in the last 24 hours has been superb ...

Still a very large amount of uncertainty this morning in the medium term and small incremental changes in the next few days in different directions could be the difference between very mild or colder than average conditions for the start of winter.

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Guys. We need a balanced approach here. 

A word of caution for those excited about the prospects of a turn of the month cold snap.

GEM or UKMO does not develop the Greenland ridge cold usherer like the ECM or GFS.

UKMO 144

 GEM 144

 

 

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The model news is really about exTS Sebastien which (IIRC) wasn't being shown on UK weather charts as a major feature until yesterday. Now we have it running along the south coast with weather warnings for rain at first in the SW and by Tue as far east as Sussex. See the Fax chart https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVK89.jpg?cb=2 wih a 967mb centre off the S coast of Ireland.

GFS shows a brief spell of NE-ly winds in its wake but as above, I think only a baby cold snap as the airflow doesn't connect with deep cold in the Arctic and is in any case replaced by a strong rise in pressure over the UK (1035 mb on Tue 3rd), decayin into a zonal flow later that week. ECM develops the HP a bit further west and does have some colder air making its way south around the 2nd but it doesn't last.

Cold rampers should look at the ens runs as there is agreement there on a sharp cold spell 30 Nov-3 Dec (exc the SW), more than you would expect from the mainstream charts but even that goes back to seasonal average shortly after. The ens show less rain around the 27th than the MetO warnings would suggest, but add in a spike around the 1st for the south,

 

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I would agree - its all great seeing the transition however we need the UKMO on board !

ECM 00z now onboard !! lovely run with deep cold -
Model transformation in the last 24 hours has been superb ...

 

ECM does look ripe for a snow event or 2 

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Cold spell not affecting the SW.... why does that not surprise me...🙄

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I’ll agree with Dew.. Sebastian looks like it would cause issues. With a pressure of 961 west of Ireland filling slowly to 967mb as it moves towards the Bristol Channel.
With high river levels and spring tides coinciding with low pressure and a large surf, coastal flooding could be a concern.

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ECM control was a huge outlier:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

ECM control was a huge outlier:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Genuine question: why does nobody ever post the weather.us UK ECM ensembles? It was the same last year, too...

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

(These update twice a day and have way more info than you can get via other sources).

 

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Genuine question: why does nobody ever post the weather.us UK ECM ensembles? It was the same last year, too...

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

(These update twice a day and have way more info than you can get via other sources).

 

Because most of us prefer Celsius?

ECM 00z now onboard !! lovely run with deep cold -
Model transformation in the last 24 hours has been superb ...

 

This is just misleading people I'm afraid. 

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This is just misleading people I'm afraid. 

No it just doesn't suit your mild / troll agenda.

People are quite capable of looking to see the -7c line all the way down from Western Scotland to Kent. 

In the context of the last 24-36 hours its a massive transformation, the fact you don't even want to comment on that shows that you can't even see it.

 

 

Because most of us prefer Celsius?

It's in Celsius for me, but that's because I changed the options (using the cog under "my account").

Still a mystery to me why nobody else uses those charts....

 

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Because most of us prefer Celsius?

You can change the settings (under “My Account”) 

The 00z ECM op run is indeed a cold option. I wonder which of the options the 06z GFS op (coming out now) will go for.

 

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The quick rebound to mild would seem quite prominent inline with the NAO
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif