No it just doesn't suit your mild / troll agenda.

People are quite capable of looking to see the -7c line all the way down from Western Scotland to Kent. 

In the context of the last 24-36 hours its a massive transformation, the fact you don't even want to comment on that shows that you can't even see it.

 

 

I don't call 'deep cold' 24 hours or so  of sub 528 air shown 8 days away that is very likely to get shunted away East pretty quickly from a det. run that is out of kllter from it's own ensembles. I'm pretty sure that your 'deep cold' comment would have been called out pretty quickly on the other side.

The quick rebound to mild would seem quite prominent inline with the NAO
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Of course the NAO index is a product of surface synoptics so is just another modelled parameter so one follows the other and vice versa.

And as we also know you can have a negative NAO and mild W Europe - they dreaded west based NAO. 

 

It's in Celsius for me, but that's because I changed the options (using the cog under "my account").

Still a mystery to me why nobody else uses those charts....

 

Agreed, these are so good for pinpointing your locality. Why we use anything else from across the channel is a mystery. Although I do still sneak a look at KNMI!

Martin

 

 

This is just misleading people I'm afraid. 

Oh the irony!! 

Agreed - this is ex tropical Sebastian and likely to be loaded with rain bearing moisture.

The 06z sits ok within the flow of the day ( which makes a change )
Micro analysis of the jet stream at key points shows energy distribution making incremental differences to the run ( NB the ridge at 180 is more amplified than 00z 186 )
The net difference isnt massive this time out however 2 or 3 runs with the same adjustments will certainly see -8c into London maybe even -10c

06z consistent with the GFS theme of sinking a brief mid latitude High with the jet coming over the top and strongly + ve NAO.

 

Of course the NAO index is a product of surface synoptics so is just another modelled parameter so one follows the other and vice versa.

 It constantly staggers me how many people don't understand that basic point. I've lost count of the number of comments I've read (not just here) which suggest "the NAO is set to turn negative and the models aren't yet factoring that in". I won't name and shame but I've read comments from professionals along these lines.   

 

Of course the NAO index is a product of surface synoptics so is just another modelled parameter so one follows the other and vice versa.

And as we also know you can have a negative NAO and mild W Europe - they dreaded west based NAO. 

Exactly - we had a negative NAo during the summer months and all 3 months were above average and July was well above average!

Back to the models - the ECM at +216 and +240: - This could be a snow event?

Cold air coming in from the north east and uppers of -10@ 850hpa to ]north and most of country under sub -5c @ 850hpa. and a front coming in from the SW!?>

+216

+240

Too far off to be anything other than speculative, but shades of 2014 beginning to appear? Seen several charts like this one recently with "afterburners" beginning to fire up.

06z consistent with the GFS theme of sinking a brief mid latitude High with the jet coming over the top and strongly + ve NAO.

 

yes rubbish in the long term.Who cares if the minus 10 line comes in,it all be over in 24 hours.

A poor outlook for cold fans, if the gfs is correct,

 

It's in Celsius for me, but that's because I changed the options (using the cog under "my account").

Still a mystery to me why nobody else uses those charts....

 

Yes, you remind people every year, and quite rightly given the huge amount of ECM data available there.

As for temperature scale, it’s not difficult to convert: F minus 32 x 5/9

 

 

yes rubbish in the long term.Who cares if the minus 10 line comes in,it all be over in 24 hours.

A poor outlook for cold fans, if the gfs is correct,

To be accurate you mean if the GFS OP is correct.  Once you get more than a few days out the professionals look at the mean and clusters and so should we.

GFS control

 

Agreed - this is ex tropical Sebastian and likely to be loaded with rain bearing moisture.

Hopefully will end up further west that currently modelled. Looks awful for canvassing. Who wanted a Dec election?

Control will please Steve

06z ensembles for London:

One or two ensembles want to keep this cold snap going from 2nd Dec:

Precipitation spike on 10th Dec: