My comment was on the GFS which shows a sinking high from day 9.

Er, no. You posted

“Dreadful 12z unfolding with the energy going over the top.”

Not at all the same thing but we are all familiar with your posting style.

where is all this 'bomb' stuff coming from...

It’s the new “pizza slice”.

Given the output (across all models) at around day 6 uncertainty is the key thing currently IMO. The ECM 12z sums this up https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 

where is all this 'bomb' stuff coming from...

I posted this Tweet in the spring and one or two people got very worked up about it. A sense of humour bypass appears quite common in the world of weather. 

https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/1129800975273910272

Essentially the same destination of travel by the ECM in the latter stages - High pressure to the South.

Pretty awsome 12z suite including the ICON > ECM blend
Just the GFS on the outside...

Not wishing to be negative as I'm past all that, but can you explain your optimism as I can't see anything worth getting interested in at the moment.

Thanks. 👍

 

Not wishing to be negative as I'm past all that, but can you explain your optimism as I can't see anything worth getting interested in at the moment.

Thanks. 👍

Steve meant to say awful I think ! 

 

Not wishing to be negative as I'm past all that, but can you explain your optimism as I can't see anything worth getting interested in at the moment.

Thanks. 👍

Because The cold from the NE is growing stronger each run & its gradually filtering more into the UK

All the 12z suites have moved west with the atlantic ridge - there is a cut off point which the icon has reaches ( where the ridge is west of the SW tip of greenland ) which then perpetuates the cold over NW Europe - ECM almost makes it but again even with that there is only a small less cold window.
I CBA to argue with Ian or even reply only suffice to say the guy has followed 1 model forever. The GFS- that may have been good in 2005 but times have changed. The GFS is pretty 3rd / 4th place now. 

Its like blindly betting on Man U or Arsenal each season - 2000s yes - now forget it.

 

Because The cold from the NE is growing stronger each run & its gradually filtering more into the UK

All the 12z suites have moved west with the atlantic ridge - there is a cut off point which the icon has reaches ( where the ridge is west of the SW tip of greenland ) which then perpetuates the cold over NW Europe - ECM almost makes it but again even with that there is only a small less cold window.
I CBA to argue with Ian or even reply only suffice to say the guy has followed 1 model forever. The GFS- that may have been good in 2005 but times have changed. The GFS is pretty 3rd / 4th place now. 

Its like blindly betting on Man U or Arsenal each season - 2000s yes - now forget it.

Thanks Steve, that explains a lot. Its definitely a case of patience being key then? 

Patience! Remember 1963 didn't really start until Santa cleared off home. 

 

Patience! Remember 1963 didn't really start until Santa cleared off home. 

True. And the severe weather of the 1946/47 winter, as I understand it, didn't arrive until after the Festive Season was long over.

not quite but GFS doesnt do massive swings it does pigeon steps hoping you wont notice.
18z West of course!!
850s for London drop from -1c on the 12z at 198 to -6c at 192 on the 18z

All because of the westward correction- watch that big hump in the London ENS start to drop out....

Note the wedge over Scandi now trying to drive the cold air back west- The -4c line doesnt exit Kent

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&carte=5

 

True. And the severe weather of the 1946/47 winter, as I understand it, didn't arrive until after the Festive Season was long over.

Indeed. 

 

Patience! Remember 1963 didn't really start until Santa cleared off home. 

But don't forget that the building blocks were in place before he had started loading the sleigh.

Much colder ENS appearing now - that big hump will be dropping for the 3/4th might squeeze one -10 for the SE on this set.

Sat 00z Mean for the 3/4th was +8c ...

Thanks Steve, that explains a lot. Its definitely a case of patience being key then? 

I’m sorry but realistically the big money is on some very nasty zonal stuff after a baby cold shot.