GFS 0z extends the life of a trough of LP lying N-S across the UK/N Sea to next Tue (19th) after which the Atlantic low previously forecast takes over, first W of Ireland, then decaying and drifting slowly SE to Sun 24th i.e. more to the S than yesterday's forecast. Thereafter a short break before more LP sets up to the SE. Finally the continental block relaxes its grip a fraction and that trough moves E by Fri 29th to get sandwiched between HP over Russia and a ridge of HP over the UK which becomes well established by the 1st, extending up to the Norwegian Sea. Yesterday's zonal stuff has disappeared so I'd call this untypical for this time of year.
Blocking - certainly a powerful block moving around over Russia, keeping LPs at bay. And to the north? Maybe, but more in evidence by the absence of depressions tracking through than anything positive.
ECM looks similar until the end of its run, Mon 25th, when it develops a deep depression off Norway with a strong northerly heading towards us.
Ens runs show temps fairly close to the mean, some +, some - through to the end of the forecast. Some widespread rain around the 21st, otherwise splashes here and there
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Chichester 12m asl