You would be daft IMO to call any scenario for late November.

With charts like this at six days out (ECM 12z) I wouldn’t call next week one way or the other: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Yes, the variability on ECM's mid to longer range charts in the Op on recent runs says enough to me that there's much to be resolved. That and the "confidence is low/very low" that decorates both the medium and long-term MetO forecasts.

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For all the promise the high looks like it is slipping away

Snow cover looking decidedly healthy so far this year:

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

Snow cover looking decidedly healthy so far this year:

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Its about on par with 2016... but the arctic sea ice looks less around north Alaska

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Hard to work out where we go ,the charts look very messy to me,but nothing indicates we are going back to the default zonal pattern.

Looks like the seasonal models are already wrong

Not sure how to take the 0z GFS.

It feels very messy. No clear consistent pattern.


Low pressures are spinning up in strange places and not doing their normal thing.

Let’s see, but it feels far from normal at the moment

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The strong southerly winds for the 3rd week of November as I said the other day are still appearing on the GFS output. That's depressing, especially as ECM are also coming up with a similar thing. Still time to change, though.

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The strong southerly winds for the 3rd week of November as I said the other day are still appearing on the GFS output. That's depressing, especially as ECM are also coming up with a similar thing. Still time to change, though.

Yes they are BUT going through the GEFS there are plenty of decent outcomes still on the table 

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Hard to work out where we go ,the charts look very messy to me,but nothing indicates we are going back to the default zonal pattern.

Looks like the seasonal models are already wrong

Agreed , PV all over the shop also 

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... and the jetstream is another thing all over the place, too.

Anyway, this week's depression moves off southwards but leaving a weak trough behind which wasn't there yesterday.

Then from Tue 19th GFS shows an Atlantic depression sets up off Ireland and intensifies there, eventually retrogressing towards Iceland around Sat 23rd, and quite a strong southerly flow over the UK for most of this time. After a short slack period, more Atlantic depressions with a strong Zonal flow from the SW all the way to Norway and beyond on Thu 28th. HP develops over southern Britain at that time.

Quite similar on ECM to start with, then that depression off Ireland is weaker, a bit closer to the UK, and at the very end of its run it moves off southwards, not northwards

Ens runs generally edging above normal from the 21st; some widespread rain about then but becoming drier.

Quite different from yesterday in week 2 - if the models aren't reliable at this range, what hope for forecasting the winter at large?

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Morning all, a very confused picture this morning, disorganised PV and low pressures springing up in weird places- it appears most unusual and not typical November fayre.
Further flooding potential on Thursday in the areas that just don’t need any further rainfall, a messy picture indeed.

The upper level warm up during the next 10 days has been amplified on the 00z GEFS (vs yesterday) because the colder runs have dropped out. The numerical models suggest winter is most likely to start with temperatures close to or above the average. However, I realise that a number of pundits are flagging up other factors and the possibility of it turning much colder. At the moment that stock is too highly priced so I'm not buying in. 

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Mixed feeling this morning.

Its encouraging that temperatures are going to recover closer to normal with time after a few more cool days but any cheer gained from this is soon eliminated by the prospect of more rain and potentially very windy conditions at times. 

Down here we've had nearly 320mm of rain in the last 7 weeks.

We need a break.

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Cool and wet followed by slightly milder and wet looks like the story for the next 10 days, for most of the country.

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The other point worth throwing into the mix is the performance of the medium range models. Despite a lot of wildcards being offered up they have been pretty solid in signalling next week's pattern shift. As is the norm there have been a few outliers but in general there has been a decent level of consistency. 

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A positive NAO/AO phase remains in the latest UKMO seasonal model forecast for Dec-Feb. And what a striking contrast between the Arctic and Antarctic MSLP anomalies! pic.twitter.com/e5UetGn3FY

— World Climate Service (@WorldClimateSvc) November 11, 2019

Alot of confusion recently in the models from a previous position of consistent northern blocking.

I think the models are potentially settling on a Pressure rise to the south and dropping to our north - not what we want to see for colder weather. There had been signals that perhaps this year would be different to previous and that a zonal train wouldnt start up. But i would potentially say we are already zonal, with weather front after weather front now starting to make its presence known. and a slightly different airmass by the day ie the typical weather for tail end of Autumn

Maybe this year the zonal train was delayed a little longer than usual?

Either way - it continues to look wet with Pressure ridges of dryness seemingly at a premium.

Record breaking wet weather continues

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I must admit I was quite taken by the model output yesterday, which didn't deliver any specific cold or sow for the UK, but was full of downstream potential.  Lots of Northern or North-Eastern blocking on show, and I'm hoping this is a repeating theme for the winter and not a false dawn.  

That ensemble chart doesn't shout cold or snow just yet.

The upper level warm up during the next 10 days has been amplified on the 00z GEFS (vs yesterday) because the colder runs have dropped out. The numerical models suggest winter is most likely to start with temperatures close to or above the average. However, I realise that a number of pundits are flagging up other factors and the possibility of it turning much colder. At the moment that stock is too highly priced so I'm not buying in. 

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A rather more blocked picture in the latter stages of the 6Z GFS, with a Continental southeasterly influence rather than the westerly picture of the previous run.

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A rather more blocked picture in the latter stages of the 6Z GFS, with a Continental southeasterly influence rather than the westerly picture of the previous run.

Plenty of potential...    let's see what the ensemble delivers.

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