The model output is not without interest for cold weather fans as we head into the 2nd half of November. Very interesting to see lower heights over Europe and the displacement of the Azores High for much of the GFS 6z run. Very different from what we saw for the majority of last Winter.

Whether it is a temporary blip or not we will see as the runs roll out. November has certainly started very cold with a max temp of ~2C today in Edinburgh.

The model output is not without interest for cold weather fans as we head into the 2nd half of November. Very interesting to see lower heights over Europe and the displacement of the Azores High for much of the GFS 6z run. Very different from what we saw for the majority of last Winter.

Whether it is a temporary blip or not we will see as the runs roll out. November has certainly started very cold with a max temp of ~2C today in Edinburgh.

 

It actually ended up getting up around 4°C (I am about to go into more detail with that in today's CC thread) here in Edinburgh, but this is still quite an impressive cold snap for so early in the season and even November 2010 wasn't as cold as that at this stage of that month.

Having said that though, I mentioned just recently on this thread that it will probably no doubt, warm up again in time for the start of the actual winter as it normally does. Even at the timing of that previous post, the CFS in particular had already been consistent with a return to milder weather by the end of this month.

Now, that is starting to come to the fore with the more reliable forecasts as well which now expect it to be milder and especially in the northern half of the UK which has been relatively dry recently due to that southerly tracking jet stream, now probably likely to become wetter as a result.

I don't want this to be seen as a "winter is over" post, but it wouldn't then surprise me one single bit if that was then, "it" for our winter.

Colder trending in the 12s both UKMO & GEFS increasing pressure depths to the North creating more of a slide to the atlantic low -

Also strat forecasts at day 16 down to 5 M/S on some runs now ( operationals around 15m/s but looking good there !)

The colder signal at the end of the GEFS has gone on the 12z update. That apart there is no significant change.

The latest ECM run ramps up the southerly wind thing for around the 21st courtesy of a dartboard type low over the west of the UK.

And right now it is currently raining although we have had a fair day with some good sunshine so it hasn't been all bad. 

Only mid November and a lot more seasonal than recent ones although little sign of an early start to winter despite what you may read on other sites. Trop, strat disconnect still in evidence  probably responsible for the more seasonal weather (temp wise). jet diving south just to the west of the UK with what looks like stagnant air from Greenland round to western Russia and lows just meandering around in amongst shallow high pressure to the north.

Going on this mornings GEFS blocking looks the form horse into the last week of November 

Going on this mornings GEFS blocking looks the form horse into the last week of November 

It certainly looks to be trending drier Marcus. Just questions about where this blocking sets up if it materialises. A UK or Euro High is the form horse, but time will tell.

Although that is not what the ensemble data or most other models show.It is one possibility but there is little consensus and other more supported options.

GFS keeps any blocking well away from us, settling over SE Russia/Rumania, and that doesn't excite me.

The current LP never really goes away, and pays us a return visit from the south before linking up with a cool-looking Atlantic depression in the middle of anext week. This is centred closer to us than expected yesterday and finishing up over the UK as a decayeing feature by Sat 23rd. After a quieter but confused period, there is a zonal set up by the 30th with a trough from mid-Atlantic to NE of Finland.

ECM is a bit more blocky, with HP extending further north by the 24th, from S Russia to the E Baltic

Ens vary somewhat by region, but overall picture is back to normal by about 21st, and something for both optimists and pessimists after that. Generally drier after that

GFS keeps any blocking well away from us, settling over SE Russia/Rumania, and that doesn't excite me.

The current LP never really goes away, and pays us a return visit from the south before linking up with a cool-looking Atlantic depression in the middle of anext week. This is centred closer to us than expected yesterday and finishing up over the UK as a decayeing feature by Sat 23rd. After a quieter but confused period, there is a zonal set up by the 30th with a trough from mid-Atlantic to NE of Finland.

ECM is a bit more blocky, with HP extending further north by the 24th, from S Russia to the E Baltic

Ens vary somewhat by region, but overall picture is back to normal by about 21st, and something for both optimists and pessimists after that. Generally drier after that

 

Here is the GEFS mean 500z anomaly plot on the 21st to give a snapshot indication of height anomalies in the NH:

 

Here is the GEFS mean 500z anomaly plot on the 21st to give a snapshot indication of height anomalies in the NH:

which is just about at the limit of what can be reasonably believed. I wouldn’t want to comment on anything towards the end of the month, it’s clear we are in a stranger than normal pattern.

 

which is just about at the limit of what can be reasonably believed. I wouldn’t want to comment on anything towards the end of the month, it’s clear we are in a stranger than normal pattern.

 Absolutely. I have no idea one way or the other (not for the first time )  re. the end of the month.

 

 Absolutely. I have no idea one way or the other (not for the first time )  re. the end of the month.

doc I always get it wrong- so a clear “no comment” from me 🤣👍

Zzonal winds taking a dive and weakening rapidly so PV would be less strong? 

http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

GEFS 06z follow recent updates. The consistency is notable. 

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Evening to all on here.

GFS and UKMO, both have Deep Low over the West Europe UK- but milder from Tuesday evening onwards next week.

Arctic Low Pressure from NW Atlantic through North and NE USA and N NE Canada as well- for same period of time circa at least next 8 days or so.

High Pressure over Norwegian Sea as well, and in Iceland and Greenland is prevalent often in next 8 days as well.

Low Pressure going around Greenland and NE of Norwegian Sea to North Russia North west Siberia etc.

There is plenty of hopeful thoughts, but the flooding risk is ongoing.

Further cold and showery weather this Friday- to Monday as well, then more heavy rain and showers on Wednesday to Friday, maybe Saturday as well.

Beyond that - keeping watching day to day model outputs.

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