I recall speaking to the press 10 to 14 days before that cold spell and being unusually confident about it. So the GEFS ensembles must have offered solid support for several days. TBH I'm not really sure whether the Met Office had already flagged it up by that point. 

Hi Brian

My recollection of that period in 2009 is that by the time we reached the early days of December, there was an increasing amount of support on the model output that is available here on TWO for a notable cold spell commencing around or just after the middle of the month. As far as I recall, it was only after it had become fairly likely from the output that we have access to here that a major change to cold was on its way that the MetO first mentioned this in any of their 6-15 and 16-30 day updates. In 2010, the MetO seemed to be rather quicker off their marks wrt the coming of that severe spell that they had been in the lead-up to the one the previous year.

 

Data from ECM32 is freely available in several places. Here is one. 

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

 

The ECM32 was completely useless last year in consistently predicting cold and blocked maybe its better at predicting mild.

Interpretation of the EC32 makes for encouraging reading after week 1.

Milder and drier in week 2 and 3 with high pressure to our east ushering in SSW'lies with Atlantic lows being held far enough west to not present too many rainfall issues. 

The Week 4 signal to return temperatures closer to normal across the north with associated increased rainfall over the west suggests a more traditional return of westerlies. Eg. Low pressure over Iceland, high pressure across SW Europe.

The signal for a return to milder conditions has been well modelled.

What is yet to be determined is how much drier it will become.

 

 

The ECM32 was completely useless last year in consistently predicting cold and blocked maybe its better at predicting mild.

You can guarantee it will be....

---

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.

 

Hi Brian

My recollection of that period in 2009 is that by the time we reached the early days of December, there was an increasing amount of support on the model output that is available here on TWO for a notable cold spell commencing around or just after the middle of the month. As far as I recall, it was only after it had become fairly likely from the output that we have access to here that a major change to cold was on its way that the MetO first mentioned this in any of their 6-15 and 16-30 day updates. In 2010, the MetO seemed to be rather quicker off their marks wrt the coming of that severe spell that they had been in the lead-up to the one the previous year.

 

I'm sure you have a better memory for these things than I do! 

FWIW I am waiting (as always) until the end of this month before making a call on winter 2019/20. At the moment I could make an argument for a very mild or cold winter. As ever I will try to block out what I want and what other people are saying and reach my own conclusion.

The summaries that I have been posting will continue to ignore anything beyond two weeks ahead. I take the view that forecasting has now got to 1st week - 90% reliable; 2nd week - 50% reliable; after that - er - 'experimental'.

As an extremely experienced "Newb" on almost everything including good granmer and spellin, the gfs modal up till 348hrs Samedi Novembre 30th ain't clear about anyfink. Models r up and down like a witches booby x 2 😉 Though looks dryish and boring. I'll have a model gander later at end of Nov, beginning of Decembre. Weather different this year. Not known snow this early on for many years (MBY:)

As an extremely experienced "Newb" on almost everything including good granmer and spellin, the gfs modal up till 348hrs Samedi Novembre 30th ain't clear about anyfink. Models r up and down like a witches booby x 2 😉 Though looks dryish and boring. I'll have a model gander later at end of Nov, beginning of Decembre. Weather different this year. Not known snow this early on for many years (MBY:)

There looks set to be a drier spell at least up to Tuesday 19th November, but the cold or chilly conditions and chance of showers also is there, so not totally dry.

It would be dry for many on Wednesday as well, but cloud then rain is expected to move to SW parts of UK by Wednesday afternoon, Low Pressure across SW and South UK and Western to NW Europe, bring heavy rain to UK and heavy showers too, with increasing winds as well but mild weather.

This Low Pressure could hang around the UK to upto and including Saturday the 23rd- but it is expected to transfer Southwards across SW and West Europe with warm air across South and Central Europe as it does so.

During this period, Low Pressure could deepen and intensify over NW Atlantic, ready to dive SE towards the UK- bringing further wet and windy spells to the UK and Western to NW Europe, with NW winds following SW flow ahead it it's arrival at the UK- in about 10-11 days time.

The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF Model Operational runs as well as the ICON are quite consistent with this possibillity and may be expecting this pattern to continue through to Early December 2019!!!.

Long may this return to average temperatures and much needed rain continue to visit Europe and the UK.

Warm up in UK and West Europe could last about 9 days but then a temperature drop is possible- NW SE tracking Low's Greenland High and Scandy High- and cold North or NE Winds are possible but not yet guaranteed.

.

 

Data from ECM32 is freely available in several places. Here is one. 

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

 

That is a useful link , thanks, and an interesting site. Hope I can remember where I put it when this thread is renewed!

GFS gets messy and that will open a few opportunities for surprises rain/snow events

scandi high on this run will be cold over Uk not overly so awaiting the high to get the cold flooding through Europe 

Not great I have to say..
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Could be tricky getting out of a rut like that if it manifests for early next month.

As we all know, these zonal spells, especially in winter, can prove extremely stubborn beasts. That isn't a winter is over post, far from it, but these setups are not good generally for cold winters. A winter akin to 2014 would NOT be welcome.

major changes needed to the output.

Roll the dice please dealer. 

As we all know, these zonal spells, especially in winter, can prove extremely stubborn beasts. That isn't a winter is over post, far from it, but these setups are not good generally for cold winters. A winter akin to 2014 would NOT be welcome.

technically it can’t be given we’re still in autumn ......

Even worse, apparently we’re in for a re-run of 1988

major changes needed to the output.

Roll the dice please dealer. 

 

I wonder if the models that are now indicating this are the same ones which a couple of months or so back were predicting above-average temperatures right through this autumn?

Hmmm!

I agree that all the long term models have little credence but what we can say is that there is pretty much no chance of significant cold in the next couple of weeks.